[fordday]

Originally Posted by carboy

Just like people in cold countries take a flu vaccine every year,

I didn't know about this. Is this applicable for everyone or only for those who suffers from flu ritually?

One of the chest doctors here in Bangalore recommended this for my 10 year old kid. I refused, seeing this as an overkill.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Flu is not confined to cold countries, although it does seem to follow the seasons in those countries. The vaccine is available here too.

[carboy]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Flu is not confined to cold countries, although it does seem to follow the seasons in those countries. The vaccine is available here too.

I know vaccine is available here, but in my whole life, I have never met anyone who has taken a flu shot. I have never even seen a flu camp here. While in US, Italy etc, 50% of the people take it every year. When I was there, every year there was a flu shot camp at my workplace, at my local library, at the local hospitals & so many places.

So I am assuming that the flu here is different from the one there. Either because of the cold or some other reason.

Originally Posted by fordday

Is this applicable for everyone or only for those who suffers from flu ritually?

Most old people & kids take it, I think. I read on the average 50% of Americans & 50% of Italians take it every year.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

A good explainer on Cycle Threshold (CT) values of RT-PCR and how they are used to classify +ve or -ve cases. I think Zen2001 had a post on this few days back.
Maharashtra asked for a reduction the CT guideline value to 24 from 35. ICMR rejected the proposal.
But what struck me immediately is that the number of "positive" cases can be brought up or down just at the stroke of ICMR bureaucrat's pen. . If ICMR changes the guideline tomorrow to 25, the number of "positive" cases would drop rapidly.

The cycle threshold value of 35 was initially set (last year) by CDC and WHO and the same followed by most countries. However, this was a time when very little was known and it was safer to err on the side of having false positives rather than false negatives. As time had passed and we know more about the significance of ct. values, it doesn't make sense to keep it at such a high level. In fact we have a study from Pune that establishes no correlation between ct value and clinical severity. The ICMR too has refrained from formulating treatment guidelines according to ct value. The bottomline is that every patient needs treatment according to his symptoms, and not the ct value. The CDC mentions that at higher ct values (near 35), we would be only detecting fragmented viral RNA which is basically non infectious. So there is certainly a valid case of reduction of ct values to a reasonable number, say 30 - it would basically label people with very low viral loads and those who have recovered but continue shedding dead virus particles as negative. Biostatistics indicates that this could be a huge reduction (even upto 50% of current caseloads) , but apparently the government's don't want to step off the panic button.

Originally Posted by Su-47

It talks about airborne transmission, which I believe is something that is known to the medical professionals for a while, but the bureaucrats asked them to shut-up citing "lack of evidence". In some way equating "absence of evidence" to "evidence of absence"..

Aren't all respiratory infections "airborne"? Even Freddie Flintoff's mum would have known this!
It's just that the term "droplets" has misled the people - all respiratory pathogens leaving an infected person's tract (while coughing, sneezing, shouting) do so in the form of "droplets" of humidified exhaled air. The size of these droplets determine "how far" they can travel (& thereby transmit) - this is subject to a lot of environmental factors. Once fallen onto any inanimate surface, viruses, especially (bacteria are hardier) will not survive for even a few minutes, but still, if someone were to touch a recently contaminated surface and then touch his own nose/eyes/mouth with the same hands, there is a risk of transmission. Airborne doesn't mean that transmission take place over great distances - hence the greater risk of indoor rather that outdoor transmission.

Originally Posted by naru80

Officially, India has around 14 million cases. But if you go by the serological surveys, the actual number of Covid cases in India could be around 400 million, which is more than the entire population of the United States.
This is based on work by the scientific community and is not a personal opinion..

Agree with this and would have been agreeing even 6 months ago on these numbers. Infact, taking the same logic of serosurveys further, today's figures on India's ACTUAL infections could even be twice these numbers. Especially since serosurveys in almost all metro and tier1 & 2 cities/towns and large pockets of slums revealed antibody positivity to the rate of 55% in that area population! - that too way back in August 2020.

Originally Posted by akhil994;5 045251

Getting a vaccine will not ensure one becomes immune to COVID. One can still be infected even after getting the vaccine.

Not to forget - the vaccinated person can still transmit the infection to others - who may or may not be vaccinated/immune. So, other than a claim of personal level of protection (in terms of milder disease), the vaccine isn't going to do anything to stop the transmission, or break the chain or whatever our politicians want to call it.

Originally Posted by DonHyd

Friends, what do you think will be the logical end to this pandemic? In order words, when do you expect to see the world moving past covid?

Only when people can act more responsibly with common sense. Stop attending election rallies and kumbh melas. Stop listening to politicians and religious gurus. It's that simple - what do you think will save us in the end - politicians, religious beliefs or scientific discipline? It's upto the people to choose. Once they make the right choice (out of these 3), the remaining 2 will cease to have any say in this matter. Or is upto people to think rationally and refuse to be swayed by anything else (including media sensationalism).

Originally Posted by Tucker48

Covid is here to stay forever and this has been stated by experts from the beginning. Vaccines have a limited role for the whole population in general but for a particular set of people, they play a critical role and no one really knows who all are included in that particular set due to lack of seriousness of govts worldwide to invest in people.
This isn't the first pandemic and it won't be the last. The faster they(viruses) spread, the less lethal they are for the host. This is a part of the game called EVOLUTION.

Well said! As I mentioned above, vaccines will have more of an individual protection role (esp amongst the vulnerable subset) rather than even ticking the spread! The silver lining about mutations is that the virus is desperately trying to survive and propagate - and it can't do that by killing it's hosts - that's why the increased infectivity and reduced mortality.

Originally Posted by carboy

Just like people in cold countries take a flu vaccine every year, COVID vaccine also could be taken every year & then people can live normal lives. Close 50% of US population takes a flu vaccine every year - likewise many other countries.
Another thing is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates with half the speed of the flu virus.

That would be the plan, yes. The vaccine industry just increased its customer base by billions in the last year! Covid is their golden goose. Even when it's documented how slowly SARS-COV-2 mutates as compared to the Influenza virus (which also regularly kills thousands every season), I suspect there won't be a vaccine that will come out with even 5 year protection, lest people should forget what covid was!

Originally Posted by Tucker48

No wonder Pfizer refused to hold trials in India as that might have brought down their efficacy rates

They played it smart for sure. Serum Institute of India purely gambled on the "lesser" AstraZeneca vaccine based on sheer volumes, (more than a billion in India itself, and much more in exports) and logistics of easier storage and transportation (2 to 6°C). Infact, Pfizer is now seeking indemnity in India before bringing it's vaccine - probably saving it's reputation from our cheap politics. "We will not be responsible for your stupid behaviour if our vaccine does not show the same results in India as it has shown elsewhere in the world"

[jacobsam]

I believe its been an absolute failure by the respective Central and state governments to plan things more effectively. Last year we never thought we all will go through these circumstances and so it was ok for administrations since they never speculated this.But too much reliance that vaccines would make everything go away has put everyone is soup. Basic infrastructure up-gradation like oxygens and beds availability was overlooked throughout the year and everyone was comfortable. Even common man thought the vaccine would keep them safe whereas the purpose of these vaccines was actually to only reduce the fatality effects of Covid.

[sunilch]

Originally Posted by jacobsam

I believe its been an absolute failure by the respective Central and state governments to plan things more effectively.

Yes they both screwed up but it is not a failure yet. We are in a difficult situation and we should not have been here. But didn't the public complain that government has gone overboard with its reaction and building too many Jumbo Covid19 centers last year? Kerala and some other states were star performers last year but now they are at the bottom this year.

The governments are still working and trying their best I believe. At some point even people behaved stupid but then everyone has a reason and/or a limitation as well.

Monkey see, Monkey do again here. We are just like that I guess. But I believe we will get pass through this sooner or later.

[guru_max]

People should understand a couple of things about vaccines. As per trials, the covishield vaccine is 100% effective in protecting against severe infections and deaths, while only 80% effective in preventing the disease. And this starts only after two weeks after the second dose. If someone goes to a crowded place the next day after getting their second dose, the vaccine is not at fault. The other vaccine, covaxin has similiar numbers. Some other vaccines like the one developed by pfizer and moderna have an efficacy of over 90% in preventing the disease. The vaccine used in our country may not be upto that standards, but they will certainly help free up the hospitals by reducing severe cases and most importantly deaths. Now there are two catches.

1. The above numbers are only for the original variant. Astra zeneca has stated that it's vaccine offers only minimal protection against the previously found UK and South Africa variants. The trouble is nobody knows what variant is now currently spreading in India. Because we don't sequence them much. In fact except UK, even many western countries does not do many sequencing.

2. This is both good and bad news. There could be a few dozen variants which are spreading around the globe. The vaccines may work against them, they may not. We can only hope that they do because we don't have clear data. But what we know is in certain countries like Israel and US where vaccine rates are very high, there is a definite decrease in cases. Assuming that mutant variants are found in these countries (it is certainly a possibility in US, where case numbers are very high), it appears that at least some vaccines do work against even mutants. So, all is not lost.

3. And mutations inherently does not mean bad news. The nature of mutations makes that virus gets less and less deadly but more infectious as it mutates. That's the natural selection of the virus. The Spanish flu is thought to be the parent of current swine flu. Current "normal flu" is believed to have been originated during the Russian pandemic in late 19th century. Like those two viruses this virus will also become a far less dangerous virus over a period of time. It's just that we are in the painful process of a pandemic becoming endemic in a population, which causes all kinds of death and destruction. This too shall pass.

[Gannu_1]

Originally Posted by Udit

My neighbour, a health worker in a government hospital has got infected with Covid 2019. She had got her first dose of Covishield on around 25th January and second shot was given to her in late February. Even after taking two shots of vaccine and completing adequate time for the development of immune response, she has been hit by Covid. She has developed moderate symptoms including some lung infection. Many of her colleagues have also got infected even after taking vaccine.

Udit, but your friend and her colleagues- how’s the severity of the infection? I suspect it’s less and they aren’t hospitalised? The vaccines I hear prevents death to a great extent and reduces the severity of the covid infection. However, there’s no guarantee that one will not contract it after taking both the doses, not even after 45-60 days.

[sridharj77]

Originally Posted by INJAXN

Hi,

Isolated my self in home, Took medicines for 10 days as prescribed by doctor at private hospital.

Isolate again for 14 days and take medicines again?

You should just get another test from a different place that uses a different kit. Also, which medicines were prescribed by the doctor?

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by jacobsam

But too much reliance that vaccines would make everything go away

First, people have to get the vaccine, and only a very small percentage have.

Originally Posted by guru_max

3. And mutations inherently does not mean bad news. The nature of mutations makes that virus gets less and less deadly but more infectious as it mutates. That's the natural selection of the virus.

Some of the mutations seem to be worse.

I keep hearing the idea that mutations make a virus more infectious but less deadly, At first, I couldn't see how. Now I think I have a clue, but not sure. Is it because people that live spread more virus?

But still I have another doubt: doesn't such evolution take a long time?

[hserus]

Originally Posted by fordday

I didn't know about this. Is this applicable for everyone or only for those who suffers from flu ritually?

One of the chest doctors here in Bangalore recommended this for my 10 year old kid. I refused, seeing this as an overkill.

No definitely not overkill. The seasonal flus are as prevalent here as Dengue, Chikungunya etc are so it is good to take an annual vaccine. Most people don't take it and then wind up doing the usual antibiotics + cough syrup + dolo / crocin dance.

[Ithaca]

Seeking advise regarding masks.

Suddenly I am seeing lot of posts on social media by "doctors" & "experts" asking us to stop using cloth masks and move to N95 or triple layered masks since the experts concur that the current strain in India is now airborne and not like the original strain.
Kindly advise if this is a marketing gimmick or should one treat this news seriously.
Thanks in advance.

[AirbusCapt]

Originally Posted by Ithaca

Seeking advise regarding masks.

Suddenly I am seeing lot of posts on social media by "doctors" & "experts" asking us to stop using cloth masks and move to N95 or triple layered masks since the experts concur that the current strain in India is now airborne and not like the original strain.
Kindly advise if this is a marketing gimmick or should one treat this news seriously.
Thanks in advance.

Stop paying attention to whatsapp University dropouts and their viral forwards.
The only complete protection against airborne germs is a fully sealed oxygen equipped helmet like the ones astronauts use. The usual masks are as effective or ineffective as each other, don't bother about chasing for N95/99 masks. I'm sure someone is trying to make a killing by selling N95 masks in this panic.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by Ithaca

Seeking advise regarding masks.

Suddenly I am seeing lot of posts on social media by "doctors" & "experts" asking us to stop using cloth masks and move to N95 or triple layered masks since the experts concur that the current strain in India is now airborne and not like the original strain.
Kindly advise if this is a marketing gimmick or should one treat this news seriously.
Thanks in advance.

I think it was always airborne. Maybe they told us otherwise because they weren't sure earlier, or they didn't want us to panic.

I think a lot of information about this thing is being hidden from us by people in the know, maybe for our own benefit.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Ithaca

Seeking advise regarding masks.

Suddenly I am seeing lot of posts on social media by "doctors" & "experts" asking us to stop using cloth masks and move to N95 or triple layered masks since the experts concur that the current strain in India is now airborne and not like the original strain.
Kindly advise if this is a marketing gimmick or should one treat this news seriously.
Thanks in advance.

Disclaimer: I'm not a doctor. I'm just a healthcare foot soldier. I use the N95. It has worked well so far touch wood. I'll caution you it is quite stifling. When out for my morning walk I use a simple blue mask as I need to breathe properly. Out in the open in a sparsely occupied route this works. The N95 versus a home made cloth mask? - I'll vote for N95 every time.

PS: The virus was always airborne.

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

The usual masks are as effective or ineffective as each other, don't bother about chasing for N95/99 masks.

Captain, I always enjoy your posts and respect your views but here we will disagree.