[poloman]

Gross under reporting of cases not surprising anymore.
Official death count in whole of Gujarat on April 16 : 78
Investigation found 689 deaths just in 7 cities.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le34352916.ece

Now extrapolate this on a national level, you will get the right picture. Actual deaths will be more than 20K daily. This will be also close to what you see around you.

[humyum]

Originally Posted by poloman

Gross under reporting of cases not surprising anymore.
Official death count in whole of Gujarat on April 16 : 78
Investigation found 689 deaths just in 7 cities.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le34352916.ece

Now extrapolate this on a national level, you will get the right picture. Actual deaths will be more than 20K daily. This will be also close to what you see around you.

Yesterday's Covid numbers in Gujarat were 11000, its hogwash.

The numbers are 5 to 7 times more than that, reason?

My village in Gujarat along with all our neighboring villages have 45-50% people infected and out of that 15-20 percent of the oldies are already dead. The whatsapp group of my village can't stop buzzing with the news of deaths since my dad grew up here and we kept going here very often, we know most of these people. This is the case with every small village, town and city in Gujarat. We have cousins in Junagadh who tell us its a hotspot of epic proportions now.

During the first wave, only 1 guy from our village was infected, he got cured too. That time India was on the brink of touching 1 lakh per day, image how rural Gujarat is fairing at this rate?

https://theprint.in/india/more-death...nerals/642129/

This is happening all over Gujarat. Such misery and falsehood for the want of perception and power. Sheesh.

[comfortablynumb]

After a long time, the number of Covid patients discharged is more than number of patients identified as Covid positive, under Pune Municipal Corporation jurisdiction. Hope these upward and downward trends (of discharged vs covid positive respectively) continue in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/PMCPune/status/1384211946396815363

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by poloman

Gross under reporting of cases not surprising anymore.
Official death count in whole of Gujarat on April 16 : 78
Investigation found 689 deaths just in 7 cities.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le34352916.ece

Now extrapolate this on a national level, you will get the right picture. Actual deaths will be more than 20K daily. This will be also close to what you see around you.

India follows the ICD-10 codes (as is laid down by the WHO for worldwide standardization of disease mortality) -this has been followed for quite some time (even pre covid) and it is not possible to make wishful entries, as this can get the concerned doctor in quite a lot of trouble that is just not worth the manipulation. The statement of the govt official regarding the certification of death is actually correct as per the ICD-10 system followed worldwide for years now. That's how it is - there are hundreds of primary causes of death and thousands of antecedent causes -there's usually some combination at work - you just can't change that to suit someone's preferences. No politician signs a death certificate - what do they understand about this subject? But here are examples (printed by the WHO for illustration only) which show how Covid19 can wrongly be attributed as the primary cause of death (even in its presence) that has occurred due to another condition - either pre existing or new. And all deaths with covid (not necessarily due to covid) are further handled following full covid protocol - say, if 100 out of 500 deaths were primarily due to covid, but all 500 were covid positive, all these 500 bodies follow standard covid protocols for disposal.

Please do not try to extrapolate on a nationwide/worldwide level, a wrong view, which will only further magnify the hysteria and actually achieve nothing.

Originally Posted by humyum

Yesterday's Covid numbers in Gujarat were 11000, its hogwash.

The numbers are 5 to 7 times more than that, reason?

My village in Gujarat along with all our neighboring villages have 45-50% people infected and out of that 15-20 percent of the oldies are already dead. The whatsapp group of my village can't stop buzzing with the news of deaths since my dad grew up here and we kept going here very often, we know most of these people. This is the case with every small village, town and city in Gujarat. We have cousins in Junagadh who tell us its a hotspot of epic proportions now.

During the first wave, only 1 guy from our village was infected, he got cured too. That time India was on the brink of touching 1 lakh per day, image how rural Gujarat is fairing at this rate?

https://theprint.in/india/more-death...nerals/642129/

This is happening all over Gujarat. Such misery and falsehood for the want of perception and power. Sheesh.

Just reading this based on the post above, which clarifies the "fudging". The media reporting seems to be at fault. Even during the first wave, do you really believe that just one person in your village was infected, while the rest of the country was churning out 1 lakh positives per day? Sounds unlikely. During the first wave, a sizeable rural population of India might have been missed due to focussed testing in cities and inadequate testing in rural areas.

Gujarat Mortality Rates Are Much Lower In The Second Wave.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/dat...he-second-wave

Disclaimer : I'm not from Gujarat, and I'm not personally tracking/monitoring the situation, but the data is taken from covidindia.org

[humyum]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

Just reading this based on the post above, which clarifies the "fudging". The media reporting seems to be at fault. Even during the first wave, do you really believe that just one person in your village was infected, while the rest of the country was churning out 1 lakh positives per day? Sounds unlikely. During the first wave, a sizeable rural population of India might have been missed due to focused testing in cities and inadequate testing in rural areas.

Gujarat Mortality Rates Are Much Lower In The Second Wave.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/dat...he-second-wave

Disclaimer : I'm not from Gujarat, and I'm not personally tracking/monitoring the situation, but the data is taken from covidindia.org

My village has 700-800 people are 95% of them are my relatives, all of us with the same surname with cousins, their families etc who have lived there for over 120 years. They had stopped allowing people during the first wave from outside and village is self sufficient since food is grown in the farms, milk in the cows they own etc. The second wave, was like a nitrous button being hit, before you could think it was bigger than the first one.

I agree that rural population may have been missed from being tested in the first wave, but in the first wave the contagion was not as quick to spread as in the second wave, look around, on facebook, twittter, its a sad predicament of human life.

In the first Gujarat was the highest in mortality rate --> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53009560

and suddenly in the second wave where in every city and town in Gujarat has people queuing, crying and literally dying from lack of medical facilities, oxygen with cremation centers having ques for hours suddenly has lesser mortality rate? Some cities in Gujarat have hospitals which are reporting higher Covid deaths per day than all of state.

https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-...-over-covid-19

The only thing Gujarat government has less is morality rate and this is not just Gujarat, this is about many states in India. You think with hundreds of election rallies with no social distancing Bengal only has 6-7 thousand cases a day?

[poloman]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

Please do not try to extrapolate on a nationwide/worldwide level, a wrong view, which will only further magnify the hysteria and actually achieve nothing.



Just reading this based on the post above, which clarifies the "fudging". The media reporting seems to be at fault. Even during the first wave, do you really believe that just one person in your village was infected, while the rest of the country was churning out 1 lakh positives per day? Sounds unlikely. During the first wave, a sizeable rural population of India might have been missed due to focussed testing in cities and inadequate testing in rural areas.

Gujarat Mortality Rates Are Much Lower In The Second Wave.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/dat...he-second-wave

Disclaimer : I'm not from Gujarat, and I'm not personally tracking/monitoring the situation, but the data is taken from covidindia.org

Sir I don't want to argue with you since you are a doctor and you are in all ways better informed than me. Also the moderation won't allow a freewheeling discussion.

But if you are a doctor you won't be needing the links or external posts to know the reality. I can alternatively quote
Swarajyamag on one side and wire or scroll on other side whichever suits to push my viewpoint.

You will know the truth from your hospital ICUs and COVID wards. So if you say that everything is normal there, you being a doctor, others may have to believe it.

You don't believe in news, social media or other mechanisms which normal people depend on information. So the discussion is always skewed.

So you have a factual position stating which hospital you work for, how many patients get admitted there on daily basis, how many people are in ICU, how many passed away, how many recovered, that kind of data will be helpful.

[jetsetgo08]

Query to the Doctors in this thread.

Could it be possible that a vaccinated individual infect others?

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by jetsetgo08

Query to the Doctors in this thread.

Could it be possible that a vaccinated individual infect others?

Not a doctor, but of course I think so because you are vaccinated against the effects of the virus and not in a position to not have the virus within you, and in turn spread it.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by humyum

Yesterday's Covid numbers in Gujarat were 11000, its hogwash.

The numbers are 5 to 7 times more than that, reason?

My village in Gujarat along with all our neighboring villages have 45-50% people infected and out of that 15-20 percent of the oldies are already dead. The whatsapp group of my village can't stop buzzing with the news of deaths since my dad grew up here and we kept going here very often, we know most of these people. This is the case with every small village, town and city in Gujarat. This is happening all over Gujarat. Such misery and falsehood for the want of perception and power. Sheesh.

While it is quite likely that the actual case numbers are 10 times or perhaps even 20 to 30 times higher, the percentage of deaths in your statement seems way too high. In all countries it is an accepted fact that many more cases are missed than recorded. Sero surveys in many countries showed this. In India, some places had over 50% infection rate. Going by you calculations, around 7 to 10% of the population has died in Gujarat? That is highly unlikely as it would be millions of people.

Coming to the final point about cases being possibly underreported, even though I am not a supporter of this government, that policy, if it were to be true, is quite sensible. What is the benefit in creating needless panic? All governments have to try and maintain calm. If the economic scenario looks bad, they have to sound positive. They can’t just let everything crash by endorsing the doom and gloom. If riots break out, the government says things are under control. Additional force has been deployed and so on. Similarly in a health care emergency, after sounding the alarm to get people to take precautions, there is nothing gained by creating unnecessary panic. So if such a policy is being followed then it is quite desirable.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by humyum

My village has 700-800 people are 95% of them are my relatives, all of us with the same surname with cousins, their families etc who have lived there for over 120 years. They had stopped allowing people during the first wave from outside and village is self sufficient since food is grown in the farms, milk in the cows they own etc. The second wave, was like a nitrous button being hit, before you could think it was bigger than the first one.

but in the first wave the contagion was not as quick to spread as in the second wave, look around, on facebook, twittter, its a sad predicament of human life.

In the first Gujarat was the highest in mortality rate -->
and suddenly in the second wave where in every city and town in Gujarat has people queuing, crying and literally dying from lack of medical facilities, oxygen with cremation centers having ques for hours suddenly has lesser mortality rate?
The only thing Gujarat government has less is morality rate and this is not just Gujarat, this is about many states in India. You think with hundreds of election rallies with no social distancing Bengal only has 6-7 thousand cases a day?

That's what this new wave shows so far - higher infectivity and rapid spread. But comparing the rapidity of the surge and it's mortality (so far), the surge is higher but mortality comparatively lower as compared to the first wave. I do not base my thoughts, words or actions on what is being reported in the print, television or social media - I can't comment on why they do so.
Regarding the states, which are more focused on election rallies - sooner or later they will also add to these numbers, once they focus on testing - just a matter of time.

Originally Posted by poloman

But if you are a doctor you won't be needing the links or external posts to know the reality. I can alternatively quote Swarajyamag on one side and wire or scroll on other side whichever suits to push my viewpoint.

You will know the truth from your hospital ICUs and COVID wards. So if you say that everything is normal there, you being a doctor, others may have to believe it.

You don't believe in news, social media or other mechanisms which normal people depend on information. So the discussion is always skewed.

So you have a factual position stating which hospital you work for, how many patients get admitted there on daily basis, how many people are in ICU, how many passed away, how many recovered, that kind of data will be helpful.

Yes, there will always be 2 sides to the same story as per the source.
The source is just a vehicle of information - the knowledge comes from analysing this. It also helps to try and see the counter argument. Most trials are also based on a null hypothesis. Hence, I don't merely take the source for granted (no matter even if it's the BMJ, Lancet etc) - it could be misleading. It's not a question of not believing "normal" sources of information; it's a question of being able to analyse and separate the grain from the chaff.
What I personally see/know in a few hospitals - the scenario, trends, etc - is what is called "anecdotal evidence". So far, it's not as bad as it's being made out to be. But it becomes meaningful at large only when substantiated/compared with evidence from multiple credible sources - that's why the need for external evidence. That for me, doesn't come from WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter - unless quoted from official sources (medical related, in this case) backed by necessary data evidence.

Originally Posted by jetsetgo08

Query to the Doctors in this thread.

Could it be possible that a vaccinated individual infect others?

Yes, they could. Vaccination doesn't prevent the (even fully vaccinated and immune) peson from transmitting to others - hence the need to continue covid appropriate behaviour. As per immunologists, it's next to impossible for any vaccine that's administered intra muscularly to be able to generate a local mucosal immune response at the portal of entry. That reqiures IgE antibodies, which these vaccines don't elicit.

[poloman]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

While it is quite likely that the actual case numbers are 10 times or perhaps even 20 to 30 times higher, the percentage of deaths in your statement seems way too high. In all countries it is an accepted fact that many more cases are missed than recorded. Sero surveys in many countries showed this. In India, some places had over 50% infection rate. Going by you calculations, around 7 to 10% of the population has died in Gujarat? That is highly unlikely as it would be millions of people.

The death rates in a small community need not be transposed to state level or national level. Even in US, UK and all many senior care facilities had been exterminated. That does not mean millions died.

Yes, there will always be 2 sides to the same story as per the source.
The source is just a vehicle of information - the knowledge comes from analysing this. It also helps to try and see the counter argument. Most trials are also based on a null hypothesis. Hence, I don't merely take the source for granted (no matter even if it's the BMJ, Lancet etc) - it could be misleading. It's not a question of not believing "normal" sources of information; it's a question of being able to analyse and separate the grain from the chaff.

I merely pointed out the hypocrisy in your posts. On one hand you are telling you don't believe in TV, news or social media and on other hand you are quoting multitude of links from online media. So who decides which source is reliable and which ones not.
As a doctor why don't you provide details for which you have first hand information. Does your hospital has enough COVID beds? ICU beds? What is oxygen situation? How many cases you are seeing on daily basis and how many deaths?
For example there are reports that only hours of oxygen left in most hospitals in Delhi. Can this be true?

[AZT]

A lot of the data we get is Garbage In Garbage Out. Below is a snapshot about MP but I also agree with the above post regarding Guj, have family there and nobody believes govt numbers anymore. Ground reality of crematoriums and burial grounds is far from whats being reported.

As per the records at these crematoriums and graveyards, 88 Covid protocol funerals took place in Bhopal on April 14. The same day the state government in its Covid bulletin reported 51 covid deaths in the state. The same document said there were four deaths in Bhopal and six in Indore. On April 13, there were 84 Covid funerals in Bhopal alone, whereas the Covid bulletin reported five deaths in Bhopal and six in Indore.

[Nissan1180]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

That's what this new wave shows so far - higher infectivity and rapid spread. But comparing the rapidity of the surge and it's mortality (so far), the surge is higher but mortality comparatively lower as compared to the first wave. I do not base my thoughts, words or actions on what is being reported in the print, television or social media - I can't comment on why they do so.

This article is about how the death numbers are fudged. Mortality rate is low because the ingenious babudom has discovered new ways to reclassify the deaths. Their actions are unthinkable by the normal standards of humanity. They are storing bodies in a morgue for a few days so that reported numbers are low. This is besides the underreporting by making cardiac issues etc. responsible. The situation in Gujarat is pitiful.

https://theprint.in/india/more-death...nerals/642129/

I called up almost every dealer of oxygen cylinders, concentrators and cans in the city where I live and only 3-4 had products available, that too being sold at a premium. All this happened because the bureaucrats were busy fudging numbers to get their promotions and no thought was spared about making people realize that covid is not gone.

Across India, even now many schools are open for teachers and many companies are forcing people to report from office. There are instances where covid positive people are being made to come to office to work. All this is hidden away by a criminally corrupt and spineless national media.

Vaccines don't seem to have worked as intended in many cases. So many people have covid despite taking precautions and getting a shot of covishield. I know that vaccine reduces the severity of infection but it doesn't appear that the 70+% prevention efficacy is applicable to all variants of the virus.

[INJAXN]

Originally Posted by sridharj77

You should just get another test from a different place that uses a different kit. Also, which medicines were prescribed by the doctor?

I did get the RTPCR done again. Sample was given on 19th day since the first symptoms appeared, this time also it was positive , cycle threshold >30. First +ve report had cycle threshold between 20-25.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by poloman

The death rates in a small community need not be transposed to state level or national level. Even in US, UK and all many senior care facilities had been exterminated. That does not mean millions died.

I was commenting on this portion of your post where it seemed that you thought the situation was the same all over Gujarat:

Originally Posted by poloman

This is the case with every small village, town and city in Gujarat. This is happening all over Gujarat.

Originally Posted by poloman

I merely pointed out the hypocrisy in your posts. On one hand you are telling you don't believe in TV, news or social media and on other hand you are quoting multitude of links from online media. So who decides which source is reliable and which ones not.
As a doctor why don't you provide details for which you have first hand information. Does your hospital has enough COVID beds? ICU beds? What is oxygen situation? How many cases you are seeing on daily basis and how many deaths?
For example there are reports that only hours of oxygen left in most hospitals in Delhi. Can this be true?

Sir, you are possibly confusing the infection rate with mortality. This wave is more infectious. So the total number of people getting infected is higher and the rate of infection is much faster. What the good doctor is saying is that it isn’t more dangerous or deadly than earlier. If 1000 people get sick, about 5 to 6 of them are dying which is slightly less than the first wave. This could rise a bit when all is said and done but in essence the mortality is not higher than before. It is more dangerous in the sense that a person’s chances of getting infected are higher now. Stating this doesn’t mean we are trivialising it nor does it mean that we are advocating that people don’t stay safe and take all possible precautions. In the last wave we were getting around 50k to 90k new cases a day at peak while now we are getting over 270k per day. So it is obvious that the healthcare infrastructure will be under stress. Since the absolute number of cases is higher, there would be more deaths as well as more bodies to be cremated. No one is denying this. Similarly there is bound to be a shortage of oxygen and ICU beds.

Let me try to use an analogy near to our hearts. If we created hysteria that driving is very dangerous as over 200k people die in India every year and over a million are seriously injured. Now would we stop driving completely? We should obviously take all reasonable precautions like driving carefully, purchasing the safest car possible, wearing our seat belt and perhaps further reduce the risk by taking the train or plane for longer journeys. However very few would become so petrified as to never starting a car again. Same is the case with covid. We should wear masks, N95 in crowded areas, avoid spending a lot of time in crowded places and so on but to instill such terror that we completely lockdown the whole country and get afraid to even step out for a walk in an empty garden is a bit extreme. I repeat, none of this means we should not take all possible precautions. No one is advocating that at all.