[carrerastrax]

I thank this thread and all of its contributors - because of whom I was able to switch to alternate media/information, which in my opinion is far more logical, truthful and very grotesquely painful too. Of course, only the leads are available on this thread and if one is interested in peeling away the surreptitious agendas and shallow coverage of mainstream media, dig further through the links and you can decide what's the "truth".

I think the real game has just started. At this moment, Putin most likely is turning out to be the grandest master. Let's take stock of all the things that have started to/are turning upside down
1. Mainstream media companies - whammy after whammy- no talk about NATO's expansionism. Story only starts from Russia's invasion Nothing about neo nazism and its existence. Nothing about Biden Jr's laptop until recently. etc. etc.
2. Social networking platforms - their claim of being 'only a platform' is now being openly debunked by themselves. They chose to allow violence or the propagation of it. Sort of impunity we see from the classes that wield power.
3. Dollar/US Treasury bonds - Backed by military might and someone else's energy reserves. Their sanctions have always attacked their very own charter of being a global reserve and Russia is no Venezuela or Afghanistan. Freezing assets is akin to stealing. Now why would I park my savings with a thief?!
4. Euro - Poor choices of friendship, against their very principles of 'individualism'; like being a shady wingman that will the viewers don't care
5. Democracies - Diabolically being killed by its own custodians
6. Nazism/Racism - I was raised and spent more than half of my life in multiple countries. I'm proudly classless (monetary, religion, caste, creed) and free (unreserved travel standing for 12 hours to commuting in the back seat of a Mercedes, I'm ok to go with the flow). But the photographs and videos of their deeds and in general their ideologies, mankind collectively might avoid patronizing this philosophy. For a few moments, I felt very happy that I'm an Indian. The sun shines perfectly and rightly in this part of the world.
7. The current most powerful man on this planet - (family and their friends too) - if you tune into the right (right as in -where info is freely available without governmental or corporate censorship) channels, there's documentary evidence of misuse of 'biological research' and the research of Turkish drones to disperse them. No need to mention the other decadently degenerate contents of that laptop.
8. Globalism and capitalism - This makes me sad. Many a nation are exploring towards autarky and reduced inter-dependence. Mother earth is going to pay a heavy price
9. The American way of life - Now I get it fully. A Corolla always costed about 18K - 24K USD for 30 years or so and we've seen it multiply itself by 3-4 times
10. Zelenskyy - This man had my heart and vote at the beginning. And this thread took me elsewhere! Now I don't have a great opinion of him.

What's getting resurrected?
1. Ruble - Being constructed on the foundations of real assets and trust. I still feel it's a steeply uphill task of 'selling' its merits. Success and merit are always divided by chance/luck and to some extent preparation. Let's see how it pans out.
Gas is the starting point - Putin agreeing to accept Euro is akin to scaling down operations in Kyiv and Chernihiv. I think it's just a move. The story is yet untold. Also, gas extraction cannot be fully turned off, so he can't waste it until alternate customers are found. Oil extraction can be turned off, though it would require extra effort and investments to re-start. But not gas; you can reduce the extraction to a minimum quantity though. Stopping supplies will go against the charter of 'trust', so it won't be turned off. Also, NordStream 2 is another card that being held back for the moment. If you read its story - Russia owned it up and completed it when its partners backed out. The war started after it's operationally ready. Coincidence? Or, well timed? Let's see how it unfolds.
2. Rules based world order - This was always a moving goalpost by the realms of 'might makes right'. It appears mankind is fixing the fallacies of the existing rules. The Matrix - Revolutions?
If this happens, our External Minister's statement at the Munich Security Conference - "Principles and interests are always well balanced" will cease to be true :-)
3. Mutual respect (w.r.t race) - after the dust settles and along with #2, this is going to be a good consequence. This is my hopeful inference.


At this point, the current global reserve and their backers will do anything and everything to keep it relevant. And they have crossed all lines of morality in the past, in this endeavour. This is the scary bit. If the threat of the Ruble turns out to be indomitable, I hope they sportingly concede. Else, we might risk the spreading of the conflict.

This is solely my view. I tried my best to limit the political and controversial pieces of information. I love this forum a lot more now - without which, I would've been consuming the main stream media.

PS - Now that I've proof read my lengthy post, it appears to me that I also have an opinion on politics and geo-politics, which is not the usual me. Time for me to reflect and dial down on the time I've spent on this. Let me focus on what's real for me ;-)

[TROOPER]

I have been silently following this thread, cause around the last time I was posting, you were a Putin/Russia sympathiser even if you questioned the west.

Everything was/is supposed to be black and white as per some people. The Ukrainian invasion lies fairly and squarely on Putin. And everything else that happened before, which led to the current situation is disposed off as nonsense.

Here’s an article I came across on twitter from The Guardian. The journalist is a veteran, John Pilger. An Australian based in the UK. Plus the article is from 2014. So one can keep blind “Russian propagandist” allegations aside. Though he is an outspoken critique of western foreign policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ia-john-pilger

Some excerpts:

Every year the American historian William Blum publishes his "updated summary of the record of US foreign policy" which shows that, since 1945, the US has tried to overthrow more than 50 governments, many of them democratically elected; grossly interfered in elections in 30 countries; bombed the civilian populations of 30 countries; used chemical and biological weapons; and attempted to assassinate foreign leaders.

The name of "our" enemy has changed over the years, from communism to Islamism, but generally it is any society independent of western power and occupying strategically useful or resource-rich territory, or merely offering an alternative to US domination. The leaders of these obstructive nations are usually violently shoved aside, such as the democrats Muhammad Mossedeq in Iran, Arbenz in Guatemala and Salvador Allende in Chile, or they are murdered like Patrice Lumumba in the Democratic Republic of Congo. All are subjected to a western media campaign of vilification – think Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, now Vladimir Putin.

But Nato's military encirclement has accelerated, along with US-orchestrated attacks on ethnic Russians in Ukraine. If Putin can be provoked into coming to their aid, his pre-ordained "pariah" role will justify a Nato-run guerrilla war that is likely to spill into Russia itself.

Like the ruins of Iraq and Afghanistan, Ukraine has been turned into a CIA theme park – run personally by CIA director John Brennan in Kiev, with dozens of "special units" from the CIA and FBI setting up a "security structure" that oversees savage attacks on those who opposed the February coup. Watch the videos, read the eye-witness reports from the massacre in Odessa this month. Bussed fascist thugs burned the trade union headquarters, killing 41 people trapped inside. Watch the police standing by.

In the US media the Odessa atrocity has been played down as "murky" and a "tragedy" in which "nationalists" (neo-Nazis) attacked "separatists" (people collecting signatures for a referendum on a federal Ukraine). Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal damned the victims – "Deadly Ukraine Fire Likely Sparked by Rebels, Government Says". Propaganda in Germany has been pure cold war, with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung warning its readers of Russia's "undeclared war". For the Germans, it is a poignant irony that Putin is the only leader to condemn the rise of fascism in 21st-century Europe.

My personal opinion right now is that if Putin was really powerful, he could have done whatever he is doing without violence. I have seen enough videos now which clearly show the Nazism in existence in Ukraine. Funny how there’s literally no mention about any of it on MSM. The west have had their hand. I still don’t get why there was a need to humiliate a country like Russia. I have seen enough videos of Putin calmly saying at summits to stop expanding NATO and have a conversation. But apparently it’s a great idea to go poke at a bear holding nukes.

There’s enough propaganda on both sides.

You won’t see a single burnt Ukrainian soldier, but tons of Russian ones on twitter. People in the west are happy and tweeting that they are “winning “.

There’s tons of burnt Ukrainian soldiers on Telegram channels, hardly a Russian one. So go figure.

[SnS_12]

Financial sanctions imposed on Russia threaten to gradually dilute the dominance of the U.S. dollar and could result in a more fragmented international monetary system, Gita Gopinath, IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, told The Financial Times.

https://www.business-standard.com/ar...3100306_1.html

I guess the EU leaders really need to wake up and come to terms with the reality of the situation and accept the fact that they have antagonized the wrong leader under US influence and if they continue on this path he will destroy their political careers. With inflation all set to hit double-digit figures in many EU countries their leaders are really playing with their countries future and the lives of their citizens. These guys need to make a trip to Moscow to save what is left as Putin would definitely not want to destroy countries like Germany and France, but they are just pushing the man to do it with their actions.

EU really needs to break away from the US if they want to survive because they very well know that no country can replace the Gas and Oil coming in from Russia if the taps are switched off. Also, sanctions have failed miserably because Russia has been fighting a war for over a month and their currency is getting stronger and they are buying gold instead of selling which many western countries thought would happen. God knows what more signs they need to realise its only the West who will suffer the most.

Mod Note - Please post a link to the original source, preferably from articles that are not behind a paywall. Thanks.

[lifeinpune]

My personal opinion right now is that if Putin was really powerful, he could have done whatever he is doing without violence.

I am sure he tried and failed. Putin and Russia are no match to the US machinery of regime change. The US has been at this game for more than 7 decades now. It has far more resources at its disposal. Also the lure of freedom and democracy is hard to resist. All over the world, most people aspire to be in a society like the west. This IMO is the biggest weapon in the west’s arsenal. I won’t be surprised if some people in this thread support the US intent of regime change in Russia thinking that the world will be rid of one less evil dictator. Also Putin inherits the past Karma of Russia and what it did in Warsaw pact countries. IMO, these two factors played a big role in Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Hungary joining NATO. But so far he seems to be turning the tables on the cabal thats orchestrating this conflict.

[lifeinpune]

Originally Posted by SnS_12

I guess the EU leaders really need to wake up and come to terms with the reality of the situation and accept the fact that they have antagonized the wrong leader under US influence

For that the EU leaders will need to grow some spine. Come to think of it, its not even a year since the French got back stabbed by US and Australia on the submarine deal. Even then they haven’t broken rank. Macron has made some feeble attempts now and then to step aside from the Hysteria and emphasize on diplomacy. Also, who is to stay that the leaders are not personally benefitting in some way from the conflict. Here is an interesting video. If one we were to dig deeper, one might find similar dirt on the European leaders too

https://youtu.be/mqxgP8WlxJQ

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by lifeinpune

I am sure he tried and failed. Putin and Russia are no match to the US machinery of regime change.

Well, if you look at what is happening currently Putin may very well be responsible in regime change in multiple countries. The timing of this has been planned to the dot and Putin definitely has a team of accurate economic advisors who are telling him how to hit back and have counter sanctions on his enemies. The path these western leaders are taking is so dangerous that the political parties they represent themselves might struggle to come back to power.

Ukraine War Sends Inflation Soaring Across Europe

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ss-europe/amp/

You can google and check the approval ratings of these leaders including Joe Biden and will shed light on how this situation will evolve for these leaders politically. French leader Macron is heading into an election and the outcome will seal the faith of other countries leaders. 12th April might be when all hell will break loose in America.

[turbo_delight]

Some excerpts from :--

https://www.firstpost.com/world/ukra...-10506001.html

"They don't understand President Putin, they don't understand the mechanism for taking decisions and they don't understand the style of our work," he added.

Peskov said that "it was not just a pity" that such claims were made, but "it causes concern, because such complete non-understanding is what leads to mistaken decisions, to hasty decisions that have very bad consequences".

US and Europe had placed some 3000 sanctions against Russia before Ukraine conflict and those number currently stands at around 5000.

Russia imposed only 1.

Results :--

1. Europe in shock. Germany Stares At The Possibility Of Gas Rationing Amidst 41 Year High Inflation.

2. Macron might loose presidency.

3. Petrodollar system challenged. Surely going to affect US in long term.

4. Ruble almost back to pre-conflict levels.

[Slick]

I am not debating the morality of the war and the responsibility of the tragedy - US, NATO, Zelensky, NeoNazzis or Russia. I think that discussion has played out throughout the thread. Great information, to each his own.

I have some queries regarding the impact of these events on India and the world in general.

If anyone can answer/ hypothesize, it will be of great help -

1. What impact does the Dollar/ Euro value degradation have on India? Asking this as India has a hugely beneficial trade relationship with the US.

2. What impact does India suffer if an annoyed US hikes trade tariffs against India, in the long run ? This is based on the assumption that US does not have a tit for tat taxation policy against India at the moment (eg. being vehicles) , I might be grossly wrong. Asking this as India has stayed neutral, against US's wishes.

3. If Saudi & Venezuela, for some reason, agree to US terms and hike Crude production for a couple of years. What impact does it have on the Russian economy? Do the sanctions then become very potent?

4. With all the Russian money, abroad, frozen and business coming to a grinding halt, Even if Russia gains control over Azov sea, how do they benefit if no one is doing business with them ? Can Russia survive purely on Natural gas exports, will there be a phase of economic decline ?

5. If the Western hegemony is broken and the East rises, what role does India play ? As India is at odds with the most powerful eastern country - China. Also we have a trade deficit with China which is not about the change.
Wouldn't India benefit if, it's biggest customer, the US, flourishes ?

6. What does Russia stand to gain from this war, in the material sense ? Eg. Control over Azov sea .. Tariffs over some trade route ? Etc.. Asking this as they have lost billions of dollars to the war, Billions to assets being frozen, billions to sanctions, thousands of soldiers dead, Heavy loss to military equipment.


- Slick

[JithinR]

Seems like some Ukrainian pilots managed to sneak in a pair of Mi-24 attack helicopters (no clue what these things are capable of) into Belgorod Russia and took out an oil depot owned by Roseneft.

Guess the Ukrainians now want to take the fight to the Russians. Afraid all this will only get worse.

Can't imagine how Putin can side step this. I guess he will have to retaliate with more force just as a show of strength.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by Slick

1. What impact does the Dollar/ Euro value degradation have on India? Asking this as India has a hugely beneficial trade relationship with the US.

2. What impact does India suffer if an annoyed US hikes trade tariffs against India, in the long run ? This is based on the assumption that US does not have a tit for tat taxation policy against India at the moment (eg. being vehicles) , I might be grossly wrong. Asking this as India has stayed neutral, against US's wishes.

3. If Saudi & Venezuela, for some reason, agree to US terms and hike Crude production for a couple of years. What impact does it have on the Russian economy? Do the sanctions then become very potent?

4. With all the Russian money, abroad, frozen and business coming to a grinding halt, Even if Russia gains control over Azov sea, how do they benefit if no one is doing business with them ? Can Russia survive purely on Natural gas exports, will there be a phase of economic decline ?

5. If the Western hegemony is broken and the East rises, what role does India play ? As India is at odds with the most powerful eastern country - China. Also we have a trade deficit with China which is not about the change.
Wouldn't India benefit if, it's biggest customer, the US, flourishes ?

6. What does Russia stand to gain from this war, in the material sense ? Eg. Control over Azov sea .. Tariffs over some trade route ? Etc.. Asking this as they have lost billions of dollars to the war, Billions to assets being frozen, billions to sanctions, thousands of soldiers dead, Heavy loss to military equipment.


- Slick

1. If we increase our trade with russia by buying more oil and pay in rupee. Our currency will appreciate against dollar. But currently we are buying only about a one day worth of oil from russia.

We also import sunflower oil/seed from Ukraine and russia around 75% or so. Before the war russia put custom duties on sunflower and now with ukraine ports not functioning, only russia can provide them and that's another billions of dollars that will be now be payed in rupee-ruble.

2. India mainly imports oil from USA, machinery, aircrafts, electronics. Last time I checked it was the US which was begging india to remove tariffs, so that they can be competitive. Its highly unlikely US would put tariff on Indian exports.

3. Saudis might eventually start increasing production. Venezuela and Iran will not. Just yesterday the Venezuelan president said a new world payment system is coming led by BRICS nations, he said his country will never go back to SWIFT system. So trading in national currency will.be the new norm in BRICS and its respective allies.

4. Demand for russian Oil and gas is still high. China will take up all the gas they make. Once russia makes or has more oil and gas transport ships. They can sell anyone they want.

They will also invest heavily in areas they are lacking like semi conductors.

5. If the east rises, India will also rise. When economies of neighbouring countries grows, our trade will also increase.
Our trade with US won't be stopping. If stuff is cheap to buy or has no substitute, India or any country will do trade with each other even if they are foes.

6. Russia will stop Nato expansion towards east. Russia showed enough is enough and is willing to push back.
Russia caused every other nation to think about its relationship with west. The start of the collapses of the dollar. Beginning of a new world order. They can now fully concentrate on strengthening trade and ties with the rest of world.

The west was looking for a reason to destroy russia and they got one. But in doing so shot themselves in foot.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by JithinR

Seems like some Ukrainian pilots managed to sneak in a pair of Mi-24 attack helicopters (no clue what these things are capable of) into Belgorod Russia and took out an oil depot owned by Roseneft.

Guess the Ukrainians now want to take the fight to the Russians. Afraid all this will only get worse.

Can't imagine how Putin can side step this. I guess he will have to retaliate with more force just as a show of strength.

Yes. But even last month Ukraine attacked russian base with a Tochka inside Russia, one SU30 was damaged.
They activated a third s400 system to cover the base.
Currently one S400 is in Belarus and another one in Crimea. While a low flying helicopter will be hard to detect, they will probably start defending them with Buk and panstir s2.
I think russians will also take out even more Ukraine air bases and aircraft on the ground. Thus far they have not attacked those aircrafts despite it being parked in plain view.

[Poitive]

Source article

Russia withdraws from Chernobyl, giving control to Ukraine. It appears to be a big deal. Possible reasons which come to mind:

1. Radiation exposure that is said to be happening to soldiers, causing concern; especially if there are soldier morale issues.
2. A suspected significant rise in radiation expected from the site, and Russia trying to protect it's soldiers from that upcoming risk.
3. To minimise blame on itself if such an exposure were to happen.
4. Simply a part of a broader strategy to redeploy forces to another region, and use the situation to show seriousness of intent to reach a compromise.
5. To use the fear of upcoming radiation exposure to evacuate much of the region. Such fear could be spread through non official channels of information (eg proxy social media and compliant mainstream media sources)

Not suggesting that all the above are highly likely - just sharing thoughts. To me a combination of 1 and 4 seem likely, but if it were 5 and in the unlikely event of them being able to pull it off, it would be a masterstroke from the strategic perspective.

~~~ Edit ~~~

PS: Am reluctantly sharing this thought and perspective. As requested before, sharing of sources of info/screenshots would be a good idea. Without that, and similar points being made repetitively makes the thread resemble a social media stream, where often people are committed to positions than to seeking, engaging meaningfully, and enhancing each others points of consideration. I imagine we at T-bhp would be like to be like the latter (seekers, that is) and hold ourselves to higher standards.

[iTNerd]

Russia gets around $400 million a month for the oil and gas that it exports to Europe and that's form a significant part of its income, especially with the crippling sanctions on other industries and trade. And for now, having cornered by the west and its invasion of Ukraine not playing up to his game plan, it's understandable for Putin, like any dictator, to give threat of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. And many of you may call his recent dictat to ask for only rubles for oil and gas payment from Europe as a game changer, and rightly, it might bring some respite to its economy in the short term. However, in the longer run this will prove to be Putin's achilles heel as Europe will move away from dependence on Russian oil and gas, and with lesser customer base to sell its gas, and no new pipelines to its so called 'friendly countries', when that millions of income stop pouring in the Russian's wallet, that's when Putin's gamble will backfire and shrink the economy to its lowest.

If only Russia had had the 'smart' leader with strategic thinking and betterment for all Russians, it would have let go off its inking of getting back its bygone soviet ideals and glory (with even the possibility of being in the EU, and consequently, these cry of NATO expansion will make no sense), and instead, focus of being a 'normal' democratic state friendly and available for business to anyone. And with its vast natural resources, it could have easily become one of the largest economy in the world in few decades, and to becoming the powerhouse of Europe. But what can you expect from a ex-spy who's only job and learning had been to be in power, subdue the 'enemy' and less to the welfare of its citizens.

[skanchan95]

If it was not a false flag operation, this has to be the Russian Air Force's "Sleep Tight, PAF is awake" moment!!!

The skill and bravery of the two Ukrainian Hind crews to pull off something like this inside Russia and get away unharmed is quite an achievement!!!!

Ukrainian Mi-24 Gunships Slipped Across The Border With Russia To Carry Out Attack On A Fuel Depot


According to reports surfacing early on Apr. 1, 2022, at least two Ukrainian Mi-24 gunship helicopters sneaked inside the Russian airspace to carry out an early morning attack on an oil storage facility in Belgorod, located about 25 miles north of the border and 50 miles from Kharkiv.

If confirmed, the raid would represent a significant achievement for the Ukrainian forces: it would affect Russia’s fuel stocks close to Kharkiv, under siege since the beginning of the invasion, but also have a psychological effect on the Kremlin, getting increasingly frustrated by the setbacks in their “special military operation”.

The tactic used by the Ukrainian pilots is pretty clear: they have flown at ultra low level to avoid detection by the Russian Aerospace Forces radars until they have reached the target area, where they have used what appears to be S-8 unguided rockets, before egressing the area at low level. It would be interesting to know whether the Mi-24s got some sort of aerial support during the raid, although it seems more likely that they carried out a solitary mission, as the presence of other assets flying close to the border would have alarmed the Russian air defenses.

Still, the raid is quite impressive, as it was carried out inside what is believed to be highly defended airspace: since it was not first time the Ukrainians targeted depots in Belgorod, it’s possible that the Russians were expecting a ballistic missile attack, rather than a raid using manned aircraft inside their territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oAFonXVsBA

[deetee]

Well, I am wondering if the "special operation" is a decoy operation while Russia stealthily erodes dollar and strengthens its energy authority.
A snapshot from a news story: