[gauravdgr8]

Originally Posted by goacom

The import fluctuations are normal. Europe was importing less NG for the months of December to February. Furthermore, Europe has enough reserves for the rest of winter. They are actually building their reserves for next winter. They have 6 months to prepare for next winter. This is all part of the preparation, so yes, this could entail importing Russian oil in preparation for the possibility of total war in the future.

There is no doubt that the US exit from Afghanistan was a shamble. However, Afghanistan was in the periphery of US interests. Al Qaieda was long since gone and Afghanistan had no economic or cultural connection to the US. In contrast, the US has maintained a significant presence in Europe for over 75 years.

The US and India have had many joint land, sea and air exercises. The LCA and the planned MMRCA will use US engines.

.

Well even US imported more oil. They showed they are releasing the reserves, however quietly added stock. If they seriously wanted to teach Russia a lesson, everything would have been sanctioned, but that's not the case.

As I said before, even Germany and France don't trust US and therefore continue to talk to Putin.

Just not Afghanistan, but the list of countries destroyed by US due to misinformation and ego is endless.

Well the exercises are a need of the hour not just for India, but more for US too to contain China and safeguard it's interests in Japan, Taiwan, Australia, Phillipines

The MMRCA is definitely not on US engines. They are already talking to Safran.

I noticed you did not respond to the last point of US having rave interests in Ukraine which it wants to save?

Wait did I miss pointing that in the last 3 weeks, Rouble has gained from 140/USD to 84/USD. In effect the sanctions have been useless, with Anthony Blinken even talking about softening them

US has hit itself in the foot this time and time will tell.

[vennarbank]

All, as some mentioned, we need to know the objective of Russia to decide success or failure. In my opinion the objectives of Russia are
1. To have land connection to Crimea and Russia
2. Get greater Donbas region[not just where current support for Russia is]
3. To have an access to Transnistria region of Moldova.

All the rest like convoys etc are facade for the above. The reason is most of the Russians fighting there are either recently added/reserves or merecenaries.
I may be wrong on this also :-)

[Poitive]

It starts.
Lithuania ceasing all Russian gas imports for domestic needs

"If we can do it, the rest of Europe can do it too," he added
...
Lithuania is however not ending the transit of Russian gas to the Kaliningrad exclave.

While a small country like Lithuania might get compensated by interested parties with minimal costs, the situation for larger ones like Hungary and especially Germany would be very different.

~~~~~

Further: Putin favouring Viktor Orban wins elections
(the Hungarian minister's interview to Wion shared earlier in the thred should be seen in the context of Hungarian elections)

1. The war in Ukraine helped Orban and Fidesz
The victory comes as war rages in one of Hungary's neighbouring countries, Ukraine, suggesting Orban has benefitted from the "rally around the flag", which sees voters favour incumbent political leaders at times of international crises.

Source: https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/03/...term-in-office

Though many months away, the ground work for the US midterms is on. I wonder if there could be a link between that and the conflict.

Originally Posted by Poitive

Further:...

• If any big event has happened, look for other significant things which were happening before that. The big event might have been triggered to divert attention from it, or to influence it's outcome.

~~~~~
Edit:

Originally Posted by vennarbank

All, as some mentioned, we need to know the objective of Russia to decide success or failure...

The same someone here
Outcomes may often not be a clear success or failure situation. Different sides would show different (manipulated) benchmarks to make the other look bad and themselves look good. Media would play it's role of being a cog in the wheel, and might highlight or bury stories.

[JithinR]

Images and Videos coming out from cities retaken from the Russians that show civilians who were bound shot at close range (basically executions).

All this is western propaganda of course. The Russians have already called these videos staged and/or claimed that their troops were provoked (not sure how it can be both..).

I am actually surprised. Half-expected the Russians to claim that all these citizens had actually bound themselves and then shot themselves once the Russians decided to leave because they simply didn't want to come under the rule of the Ukrainian Nazis once again.

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by JithinR

Images and Videos coming out from cities retaken from the Russians that show civilians who were bound shot at close range (basically executions).

All this is western propaganda of course. The Russians have already called these videos staged and/or claimed that their troops were provoked (not sure how it can be both..).

I am actually surprised. Half-expected the Russians to claim that all these citizens had actually bound themselves and then shot themselves once the Russians decided to leave because they simply didn't want to come under the rule of the Ukrainian Nazis once again.

Actually this is what the Russians claim:

On March 31 the mayor of Bucha, Anatoly Fedoruk, confirmed in his video address that there was no Russian military in the town, but did not even mention any local residents laying shot in the streets with their hands tied,” the military also pointed out.

“It’s particularity concerning that all the bodies of people whose images were published by the Kiev regime, after at least four days, have not stiffened, do not have characteristic cadaveric spots, and have fresh blood in their wounds,”

Some of the dead apparently had their hands tied, while others were white armbands, commonly used by Russian forces and civilians in areas under Russian control (also used by Civilians who are Pro-Russian).

Western Propaganda is good, remember this guy holding proof of WMDs in Iraq in the UN General assembly?

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

Interesting the losses between the most powerful and richest military in the world vs rag-tag Taliban armed with Ak-47s is being compared with Russia fighting the largest professional military in Europe backed by NATO.

Nuances! Anything to make the Russians look good. The Russians should really employ some Indians into their propaganda department instead of releasing their amateurish statements.

The original point of contention for that post was whether Russia is winning, not whether Taliban is an easier foe vs the Ukrainian military.

Anyway, going by your comparison, the Iraqi military in 1991 was much larger than the Ukraine's military now, it was amongst the largest militaries in the world at that time, infact!

Originally Posted by Foxbat

Actually this is what the Russians claim:

On March 31 the mayor of Bucha, Anatoly Fedoruk, confirmed in his video address that there was no Russian military in the town, but did not even mention any local residents laying shot in the streets with their hands tied,” the military also pointed out.

“It’s particularity concerning that all the bodies of people whose images were published by the Kiev regime, after at least four days, have not stiffened, do not have characteristic cadaveric spots, and have fresh blood in their wounds,”

Some of the dead apparently had their hands tied, while others were white armbands, commonly used by Russian forces and civilians in areas under Russian control (also used by Civilians who are Pro-Russian).

Western Propaganda is good, remember this guy holding proof of WMDs in Iraq in the UN General assembly?

Attachment 2292139

He said, she said, they said! In the end of the day, all that matters is what you want to believe and it is evidently clear what most people in this thread want to believe.

Please don't talk about Western propaganda when the Russians still haven't acknowledged that they had shot down MH17. Western propaganda is the lesser evil as compared to the statements put out by the Kremlin. And don't forget, you go to prison in Russia if you go against the official narrative.

[turbo_delight]

If we see all parties in this war: US, Europe, Ukraine and Russia, the best game is played by Russia.

US : Sanctions
Europe : Sanctions
Ukraine : No plan except "Yes Sir"

US cunningly thought they will use Ukraine to make Russia militarily weak.
Europe merrily chugged along with US, thinking that they will be in good books of America.

I think what US/Europe thought was that they will put sanctions and Russia will be down to knees. As per them, this was the only outcome possible.

They never had any fallback strategy as to what happens if "their probable outcome" fails.

Europe very well knew that they are dependent on Russia for gas, oil, nuclear materials, titanium, uranium, chips , wheat and what not.
US is also dependent on Russia for nuclear materials and their semi-conductors.

West, being West, never thought that what will happen if Russia tightens all of these ?
This question none of their govt advisors thought of ? How dumb.
OR they got overruled by Biden who has only animosity with Russia.

Now, I think Russia will start constricting the West, slowly, leisurely, at its own pace, breath by breath. What Europe will go through now is a cycle of release and choke.

And Slowly, over time, Europe will start paying in Rubles.

Choking started with the gas. Then gave some breather.
Again choke with oil exports. Then give some breather..
Choke with semi-conductors.
nuclear materials exports.
Wheat exports.
one by one
..

US can not lift these sanctions because they will look weak. It'll be so humiliating for them, after what happened in Afghanistan.

Now, if we take a step back and look at what happened and where its headed to :-

It was as if Russia wanted these sanctions.
It was as if war was always much bigger than what we are seeing in media.

We are seeing the best chess game played ever in our century.

Chess is slow. Enjoy.

[SnS_12]

Is Germany going to be the next Sri Lanka? With record high inflation the government is taking all steps and decisions just to fuel its rise further.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnAJK440uxQ

And then you have statements like these. Wonder, if he still remembers that Germany is the biggest economy in EU and if they collapse so will the Euro.

Poland calls Germany’s position ‘major obstacle’ to tightening sanctions against Russia

https://news.az/news/poland-calls-ge...against-russia

[V.Narayan]

My thanks to all members who have written their views, shared news items & videos, and offered their assessments on this tragic and needless war. Certainly most of us lay readers like me have benefitted from this rich range of views and information. While geo-politics interests me immensely I have refrained from putting forth my views last 4 weeks as the situation is too complex and fast changing for me to predict - others clearly are more confident. I do not know who will win if there are any winners at all. This seems to be a situation were those who emerge unscathed will feel like victors. But I know who is losing or has lost already and those are the ordinary Ukrainians citizens who did not ask for or lead into this war but are bearing the consequences of destroyed lives, livelihoods and homes.

Most writers on this thread seem to be rooting for Russia. Not surprising given that USSR (more than Putin's Russia) was a steadfast all-weather friend for whom most Indians, including me, have warmth and goodwill. The Russia of today still supplies us arms (for ample clarification it is at market price, and not at a concession and major after sales support can come at way above market price) and supports us at the UN. The same Russia of today also over leans on China, our arch nemesis, for economic support and trade and supplies the latest weaponry they give us to China too. And under pressure from China, Russia is wooing Pakistan. It is their right but just making a point lest it is forgotten.

I am no voter for US hegemony and duplicity and hypocritical moral outrage. Nor am I a supporter of the vice like grip of the petro $. But having dealt with Rosboronexport, United Aircraft Corporation & Russian Helicopters I know for sure the Russia we deal with today in attitude and friendship and willingness to extend is simply not the Soviet Union we dealt with 30 to 60 years ago. Nostalgia is nice reality checks are better.

Some writers are mixing the facts of this conflict and its run up to past atrocities and lies of the US. Rage over past sins of one of the parties doesn't help to assess the current emerging geo-political situation with a clear objective lens focused only on our own strategic needs. Moral outrage colours perspectives.

Our External Affairs Ministry, I believe have done a fabulous job of balancing our interests with those of the conflict and keeping China, UK in their place and got USA to appreciate our tender position while at the same time not sounding like a Russian ally. The several predictions being made on this thread seem to reflect the desired outcome based on the writer's political leaning. My humble submission to all is - express your views by all means but please don't bash a member holding a view favouring the other side because right now we all don't know how this will end or what big surprises lie in wait.

The geo-political equations between Europe-USA-Russia-China-India will simply not be the same after this nor will the US$ - what and how we have to see.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

But I know who is losing or has lost already and those are the ordinary Ukrainians citizens who did not ask for or lead into this war but are bearing the consequences of destroyed lives, livelihoods and homes.
.
.
.

I know for sure the Russia we deal with today in attitude and friendship and willingness to extend is simply not the Soviet Union we dealt with 30 to 60 years ago. Nostalgia is nice reality checks are better.
.
.
.
Rage over past sins of one of the parties doesn't help to assess the current emerging geo-political situation with a clear objective lens focused only on our own strategic needs. Moral outrage colours perspectives.
.
.
.
Right now we all don't know how this will end or what big surprises lie in wait.

Wise words

The present period in the conflict is calm before next big storm. There is something brewing but we can't ascertain what it is and what course it takes.

[navin]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

I know for sure that the Russia we deal with today in attitude and friendship and willingness to extend is simply not the Soviet Union we dealt with 30 to 60 years ago. Nostalgia is nice reality checks are better.

I am sure that Russia also is aware that the India they are selling arms to today is not the same "socialist-leaning" India that their predecessors (Soviet Union) dealt with in the 70s and 80s.

I do not expect Russia to respond in the same way that the Soviet Union did in 1971.

[goacom]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Most writers on this thread seem to be rooting for Russia. Not surprising given that USSR (more than Putin's Russia) was a steadfast all-weather friend for whom most Indians, including me, have warmth and goodwill. The Russia of today still supplies us arms (for ample clarification it is at market price, and not at a concession and major after sales support can come at way above market price) and supports us at the UN. The same Russia of today also over leans on China, our arch nemesis, for economic support and trade and supplies the latest weaponry they give us to China too. And under pressure from China, Russia is wooing Pakistan. It is their right but just making a point lest it is forgotten.

This is an excellent and well balanced post. In the end India must do what is right for India and I think the GOI is doing a good job maintaining its interests. I totally agree that the Russia of today is no longer the same USSR of say 40 years ago. Russia will make deals with any nation, including China and Pakistan.

The US for its part is no saint. The 2003 invasion of Iraq by Bush was a crime. The Vietnam war was also an outrage. The difference between Russia and the US is that thanks to its (flawed) democracy, there is faster self correction in the US than Russia. Most Americans today will acknowledge that both of those wars were wrong and that they were misled by their governments. In contrast, just see what happens to a Russian that tries to protest against their own government!

America's relationship towards India has also changed. The thought of sending Aircraft carriers to threaten India today as it did in 1971 will not even occur. The US recognizes India as a potential ally against China as both share more in common they there are differences. Outside the military sphere, India is a hub for many western manufacturing and technology companies. In the military arena, several private Indian companies are critical component suppliers to large establishments like Boeing, Airbus and Northrup.

Conversely, the US's relationship with Pakistan has continued to diverge. Pakistan's control by its corrupt military, its ties to Jihadi movements and last but not least, it becoming a puppet state of China means that there will be no chance of any cooperation between the two moving forward.

The bottom line is clear. While India has to maintain some relationship with Russia in the short term, it will not be tenable in the longer run. Any long term relationship with Russia will in effect mean being subservient to China, which as far as I am concerned is not acceptable. If there is a conflict with China, India will certainly not get much help from the feckless Europeans - specially the Germans who depend on Chinese trade. In the end, only India can fight for India.

[Slick]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

My thanks to all members ...

What a concise, yet lucid post, thank you & kudos sir.

I am keen on understanding the impact of the western hegemony being broken. My instincts tell me it's not going to be good for India or the World in general.

As bad or selfish as the west has been, it seems to me, at the moment, the lesser evil.

- Slick

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Most writers on this thread seem to be rooting for Russia. Not surprising given that USSR (more than Putin's Russia) was a steadfast all-weather friend for whom most Indians, including me, have warmth and goodwill. The Russia of today still supplies us arms (for ample clarification it is at market price, and not at a concession and major after sales support can come at way above market price) and supports us at the UN. The same Russia of today also over leans on China, our arch nemesis, for economic support and trade and supplies the latest weaponry they give us to China too. And under pressure from China, Russia is wooing Pakistan. It is their right but just making a point lest it is forgotten.

@V. Narayan - I compliment you on a great post. Just wanted to provide my 2 cents.

I believe that we have a highly interconnected world today. China has a lot of influence on USA today. The China-USA trade is 550 B USD which is 5 times what we have with them. USA & China will compete but it is unlikely that USA will go the whole hog for India. China has a lot of influence in many US think-tanks, universities, companies etc. USA would like to leverage India against China but not vice versa. So India needs Russia to stay strong. India will also like to have cordial relationships with China so that so that India doesn't fight USA's war with China in Asia. We don't want to make the same mistake that Ukraine did.

India has to worry about USA's hypocrisy and short term thinking. It's in USA's interest for Germany and France and the rest of the European world to shift to US businesses for energy & armaments. US or middle east energy will be much more costly for Germans & other Europeans. In the long term, this will only make the European industry less competitive in comparison to USA. The US Energy & defense companies make a killing too. Is this the reason for the Russophobia that you see a lot in the USA today? Today all of us have a lot of business to business links with USA but that doesn't mean that we resign ourselves to a second grade status when dealing with the states. USA is great at manufacturing/encouraging insurgencies and making heroes out of extremists ( remember the Mujahideen aka Taliban) of different categories to suit their geopolitical & commercial interests. Did they actually do that in Ukraine too?

While I am not rooting for Russia, I really feel that it's in India's benefit that Russia continues as a major power and the balance of power is maintained. Russia currently has a leadership position in missile and anti-missile technologies, commodities, Agricultural goods like Fertilizers etc. We should leverage our relationship with Russia to benefit in those areas. In case Russia gets balkanized, that would be a disaster for our region. Without Crimea and the black sea fleet and an ability to project power in the Mediterranean, it would have been just a matter of time before Russia got balkanized.

Obviously I don't want India to be like Russia. However Russia is a different beast all together. One wonders if democracy is even possible in a country like Russia which is so widespread and the population is so sparse and spread out. Maybe the model that works for Russia is what they have now.

On another note, I wanted to share this article.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldm...154740683.html
Excerpts :
Goldman Sachs has warned the US dollar faces risks that could erode its global dominance, saying it's dealing with some of the same challenges that the British pound faced in the early 1900s.
The move by the US and its allies to freeze Russia's central bank out of much of its foreign currency reserves has raised concerns that countries could start moving away from using the dollar, due to worries about the power the currency grants the US.
The bank's analysts, including economist Cristina Tessari, said the dollar faces a number of challenges similar to those faced by the British pound before it declined. The pound was once the world's reserve currency, but was supplanted by the dollar in the middle of the 20th century.
Those challenges include the fact that the US has a relatively small share of global trade compared to the dominance of the dollar in global payments. That the country has a deteriorating "net foreign asset position", with rising foreign debts. And that it faces geopolitical problems, such as Russia's war in Ukraine.

I searched for the original research note from Goldman which just came out. Looks it is not publicly available.

[lifeinpune]

Duran had Scott Ritter joining for a discussion, and to answer questions in live chat.

https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY

Key Takeaways -

- The Russian intelligence assessment was a complete failure. It looks like CIA/MI6 counter-intelligence in Ukraine had compromised Russian intelligence. So their initial calculations went wrong.

- The Russian operation is going to continue until all its stated objectives are achieved. And its going to take a while.

- Russia wants Zelensky to be around and be the one to accept/sign the final settlement. This would legitimize the agreement as he is the west’s protagonist.

- Russia will keep the complete coastline of Ukraine including Odessa to ensure a land corridor and also dominate the Black Sea.

- Ukraine will be dismembered with ethnic Ukrainians being pushed to a rump state in the center.

- Russia will try to offer western Ukraine around Lviv to Poland along with a security guarantee. If Poland takes the bait, it will be at odds with principles of Europe. The idea is to wean it away from NATO. NATO is expensive and it would be cheaper for Poland to instead have an agreement with Russia.

- Russia’s larger goal is to force Europe, specifically Germany, to rethink their security architecture through NATO and instead have a direct agreement with Russia. He also dwelt a bit on NATO Article 5 and what it really means in practice.

- China has been laying the ground work for an invasion of Taiwan. The recent Chinese move around Solomon Islands is part of this preparation. Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a certainty. Its not a question of if but a question of when.

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

US can not lift these sanctions because they will look weak. It'll be so humiliating for them, after what happened in Afghanistan.

This may not be so. Biden can be made a sacrificial lamb. The new leader can pin this entire episode as borne out of Biden’s personal animosity and rescind the sanctions as a correction. Especially since word is that they were put in place without consulting the treasury and the fed. The Hunter Biden laptop coming to the fore now seems like a move to setup Biden as a fall guy. But if the sanctions are rescinded, this can become a big wakeup call for Europe, specifically Germany. They were pressured to agree to it and had to bear the brunt of the blowback. The US credibility as a reliable partner will take a severe beating