[Contrapunto]

Geopolitics is moving to a space where India needs to deploy
1. Continuous surveillance - over north Arabian Sea and Himalayan ranges
2. Need-based surveillance - over South Arabian Sea, Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal and North-eastern border
3. Needs to be done at minimum cost and good levels of effectiveness to be useful for defence needs

Very few solutions fit the bill as well as a tandem satellite+ drone-based surveillance operation. I doubt even the current fleet will be sufficient - but I suppose India may go in for additional tactival drones like IAI Heron (and others), while encouraging the development of a domestic ecosystem of drone platform makers, sensor manufacturers and software developers. In modern days, it is almost impossible to do "everything yourself", and I sincerely hope the govt does not fall into that trap.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

1) These birds are to be flown in uncontested airspace during land missions.

During 2020 Galwan conflict, Indian Navy's Boeing P-8i kept an eye on Chinese troop movements from a safe distance. Encounters between Russian Su-27 and US MQ-9 over the Black Sea was on international waters.

2) During sea missions, MQ-9 can fly into contested airspace, but the range of their sensors & relatively small size means the enemy ship is likely to be detected first. Unless it is one of those stealth frigates or destroyers.

3) Since submarines cannot fire anti-aircraft missiles, MQ-9 does not need any protection during anti-submarine warfare missions.

If I may add, there is an additional utility for such systems for ISR during peacetime when they operate well within our territorial water or international waters. They technically are in the range of enemy radars and SAMs but there’s not much they can do about it except electronic warfare perhaps. Given that most of our missions take place during peacetime, it does make sense.

In the event of a war between near peers, the utility of air power in general is greatly diminished as we’ve seen in Ukraine.

The Americans just made it look too easy during the 90s due to the huge technological and numerical advantage they enjoyed then.

[Fuldagap]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Food for thought - how easy or difficult would it be to shoot down a drone of this size. What would its radar signature be like. That aft mounted pusher prop must be having a significant signature. In a peace time operation or a quasi war time operation against non-state actors I suspect drones are incredibly useful to keep the enemy's heads down for extended periods. More and more of our actual operations have become wars of attrition short of a full war but equally challenging often more so.

MQ-9B is a large, easily visible and audible, less maneuverable (due to just one turboprop engine), plenty of very expensive equipment onboard, it is a slow moving aircraft and when used even with weapons it is quite defenseless against enemy aircrafts or missiles. Used against our very good westerly and easterly neighbours, we do not have uncontested airspaces due to which an MQ-9B would be picked up by their rather brilliant radar systems. Also, both of the neighbours have plethora of SAMs. China especially have an astounding radar and SAM system.

I see the armed version of MQ-9B useful for our navy but for any other use of the armed version, I don't see much value. Except for the fact that no human is onboard when in enemy territory and using them gives a sense of pride.

There must be some ways to operate these aspirational UAVs which could keep them safe and still productive but that is not out in the open.

As Smartcat mentioned, in March 2023 a US MQ-9 Reaper was made to crash in the Black Sea (South West of Crimea) by 2 Russian Su-27 Flankers.
The MQ-9 Reaper recorded the video while one of the Su-27 dumped fuel onto the Reaper from its front and tried to blow its jet exhaust onto it to cause it to catch fire and harm. Instead, the propeller of the Reaper got damaged after a slight brush with the Su-27. The Su got damaged too but both Su-27s landed safely afterwards, the pilots got medals. The Su-27s did not use any weapons for escalation reasons. The Reaper was unarmed.

IMHO the drones would up the game in our military not by adding value in terms of attack or surveillance but by technological upgradation, training and requirements thereby. The navy would benefit a lot in surveilling submarines/other vessels though as it is fantastic in that department. We have been using drones since '99 Kargil and the current acquisition would up the game. For internal usage MQ-9B would be brilliant for civilian/military specially for tracking smuggling.

This reminds of the MIG 25 mach 3 which was untouchable at that time to any mighty aircraft/weapon of those times and India showed who's boss to its neighbour more than once in filmy ways.

Here's a related excerpt from Mark Mazetti's 2013 book which puts drone operations a little into perspective with some humour.

[Stribog]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Thank you SmartCat.

Food for thought - how easy or difficult would it be to shoot down a drone of this size. What would its radar signature be like. That aft mounted pusher prop must be having a significant signature. In a peace time operation or a quasi war time operation against non-state actors I suspect drones are incredibly useful to keep the enemy's heads down for extended periods. More and more of our actual operations have become wars of attrition short of a full war but equally challenging often more so.

We have two recent wars to answer your question.

1) the Azeri - Armenian war. Here the Azeris had near uncontested battle space and used their large fleet of TB2 (Bayraktar) drones to devestating effect. The much larger Armenian army was decimated by these drones allowing the Azeris ground forces to then move in and conduct mop up ops.

2) the war in Ukraine - the early stages saw both Ukraine use large drones like the TB2 but as Russian control over the battle space tightened, Ukraine has dropped it's reliance on larger drones and instead use cheaper, smaller payload carrying drones including one time use drones. Drones like the Mavic (a commercial small payload carrying drones) or the Shahid on the Russian side have greater survivability because of their low signature and more importantly they are cheap ergo mass produced swarm drones are the way forward in a contested battle space.

Something like the Predator drone is deadly against saw terrorists in Kashmir (permanent 24/7 monitoring with the ability to strike in real time), maybe a low intensity war against Pakistan but our neighbours to the East have such a high density of SAM defense and superior airpower that a large drone like the Predator will have a shelf life of a few minutes. The solution is something like the Orlan in a swarm. That's the way forward bit sadly our military have a very low production base of such small kamikaze drones at this point. Hope that we shortlist some new vendors and mass produce these asap.

[torquecurve]

Interesting points regarding the HALE/ MALE drones. A couple of points that we tend to miss
1 - The sensors are not just optical in nature
2 - The A/C doesn't necessarily have to be 'above' the target zone to provide surveillance.

A lot of the older gang will remember the use of the venerable 'Canberra' with a camera that could photograph about 80 kms across. (IIRC - willing to be corrected). The U2 had cameras that could cover a 200 km scan in one pic flying at an angle from the target zone.

A surveillance drone flying at 35000-40000 feet, can be a few kms inside our border and still photograph the border easily. This is good enough for surveillance.
Yes a slow lumbering drone with a huge prop will show up on radar - but so will other aircraft flying in the vicinity. In fact, with RAM coatings and Radar Jammers (esp in the Short and Medium hz variety), it can probably protect itself pretty well.

Learnings from the Azeri/ Armenian conflicts or the RussoUkraine will also be applied in due course. Small drone groups will be effective in 'short' ranges - in most cases about 8-10 kms and not over the horizon ops.

The best use of HALE/ MALE drones in the Indian context is to patrol our seas - we have a huge coastline and this will allow lesser fatigue and better ops preparedness of our vital assets. But to say that the drones will not impact our western neighbour is a long shot.

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Food for thought - how easy or difficult would it be to shoot down a drone of this size. What would its radar signature be like. That aft mounted pusher prop must be having a significant signature. In a peace time operation or a quasi war time operation against non-state actors I suspect drones are incredibly useful to keep the enemy's heads down for extended periods. More and more of our actual operations have become wars of attrition short of a full war but equally challenging often more so.

As you have mentioned, these are primarily for peacetime monitoring in my opinion and I think from first hand user experience the Indian forces have found the MQs to be the most efficient and effective forms of monitoring with the added advantage of having them armed and ready to deploy if required. In a conflict situation these might prove to be sitting ducks, but what they can do is to pick up the embers that usually lead to widespread conflict. Even having them in the air inform our adversaries they're being watched.

We need this monitoring capability on all sides of our borders, especially considering the ongoing conflicts around us.

[V.Narayan]

Defence Ministry Clears Purchase of 15 Maritime Surveillance Aircraft for Navy, Coast Guard

https://www.news18.com/india/defence...t-8781672.html

Good old common sense is alive and well. Right decision on three counts - maritime patrol aircraft independent of the Americans + C-295 derivative + to be built outside HAL. We could have done this in 1980 in collaboration with UK using the HS.748 platform but the politics was not in our favour then. Nine aircraft for the Navy most probably oriented towards ASW and maybe anti-ship strike. Six aircraft for the Coast Guard to augment the Dornier's. Cost of the programme is Rs 29,000 crores.

[ads11]

Ah, a rare common sense W! Amazing.

Just want to clarify, this pretty much means that this is going ahead right? There won't be any more three letter acronym RFI, MOU, AON, type nonsense still to happen before they see the light of day?

It'll be good to have this platform separate from HAL. It'll hopefully be a good springboard for the C295 platform to become an ecosystem of platforms hopefully.

Will be interesting to see how the maritime patrol variant offered by EADS measures up against this eventual Indian MPA on the same platform.

[itwasntme]

Originally Posted by shortbread

In a conflict situation these might prove to be sitting ducks……

Houthis claim to have shot down another MQ-9 Reaper.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/19/polit...men/index.html

[Fuldagap]

Originally Posted by itwasntme

Houthis claim to have shot down another MQ-9 Reaper.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/19/polit...men/index.html

As per the internet US is operating more than 300 of these currently. Losing a couple of them may not be noticeable but still approx ₹ 1,000 crores down the drain, if not more. Heavy price by any standard as far as money is concerned.

[dragracer567]

Will the Boeing P8 production line wrap up like it did for C17?

In this interesting article about how many countries are still approaching Boeing to restart the C17 production line (bet India is among them), they also talk about how the P8 program might see the same fate as the C17 program. Regular readers will know I've a soft spot for the P8

For the uninitiated, Boeing shut down the C17 production line due to a lack of solid orders though India had a requirement for 6 more jets along with other countries but ended up having to purchase the sole airframe which was the last one to be produced leaving us with just 11 units.

Now, the P8 has a different problem - being based on a commercial airliner - specifically the popular 737 NG, the production of which is coming to an end as Boeing supplies only the troubled 737 MAX right now. So, there are probably only a limited number of airframes before there won't be anymore available. The P8s are currently under orders from Canada, Australia, Germany and South Korea (apart from other operators) with Saudi Arabia contemplating more orders. India was also supposed to order 6 more airframes though this was also held hostage along with the MQ-9 deal. With the problem cleared, the deal would still probably go through but I guess India is currently focusing on getting the MQ-9 deal passed while the locally built C-295-based MPA deal had been approved as well - which is more appealing - both cost wise & strategically but with operational limitations compared to the P8. It remains to be seen if the P8 production line will still be active by the time we place the orders. Taking orders into account, India (12) is the fourth largest operator of the P8 after the US (139), Canada (16) and Australia (14) while it will be the second biggest operator if we go through with the order for 6 more airframes. India is also a pioneer by purchasing the P8s at almost the same time as the US Navy which I believe gave the confidence for its later success. I guess unlike the A330 MRTT, used civilian airframes cannot be converted as the P8 is a mix of 737 NG variants with the fuselage from the 737-800 but with stronger wings from the larger 737-900 and has raked wingtips similar to those fitted to the Boeing 767-400ER, instead of the blended winglets available on 737NG variants. There is also a short bomb bay for torpedoes and other stores behind the wing all of which would be tricky to retrofit and certify in a used civilian airliner.

Speaking of the A330 MRTT, it has the same issue as the A330 production has ended in favor of the newer A330 NEOs which hasn't yet been converted into MRTTs yet. However, unlike the P8, used airframes can be converted and the A330 is much more popular airliner than the 767 (and hence more widely available). India has actually cleared the Acceptance of Necessity (AON) for the procurement of “Flight Refueller Aircraft” with the option for used airframes where we could see used 767s offered by the IAI-HAL consortium and Airbus offering A330 MRTTs based on used airframes.

I am curious about something though - how is the KC-46 not facing this issue? Is the 767 still in production or is Boeing making airframes specifically for this purpose?

[ads11]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Will the Boeing P8 production line wrap up like it did for C17?

In this interesting article about how many countries are still approaching Boeing to restart the C17 production line (bet India is among them), they also talk about how the P8 program might see the same fate as the C17 program. Regular readers will know I've a soft spot for the P8

This is a bit left field. The P8 programme is one of those rare Boeing bright spots that seems to be going from strength to strength with a burgeoning and growing global userbase. Would be a mighty shame if the line gets shuttered just as users everywhere have become more alert to the increased importance of ASW both in the Indo-Pac context and also in terms of the North Atlantic and European waterways. I mean surely not? They can't let this one shut down. Any idea how many more units are left on the order book?

The P8s are currently under orders from Canada, Australia, Germany and South Korea (apart from other operators) with Saudi Arabia contemplating more orders.

Wait the Saudis operate or plan to operate the P8?! I didn't know that but I guess they want to have oversight of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for surface shipping issues - can't imagine they've got a lot in terms of subsurface threats to worry about there.

Taking orders into account, India (12) is the fourth largest operator of the P8 after the US (139), Canada (16) and Australia (14) while it will be the second biggest operator if we go through with the order for 6 more airframes. India is also a pioneer by purchasing the P8s at almost the same time as the US Navy which I believe gave the confidence for its later success.

Was India the first export customer? If so that's a pretty unique distinction for US military kit.

I am curious about something though - how is the KC-46 not facing this issue? Is the 767 still in production or is Boeing making airframes specifically for this purpose?

The 767 most definitely isn't in production, which is why I remember seeing a bunch of disgruntled posts about the myriad KC46 delays raising that fact. I also seem to remember that the KC46 uses a real mishmash of components from different variants of the 767 line as well as some of its sibling airframes like the cockpit of a 787 for eg. See below the same method for the P8:

I guess unlike the A330 MRTT, used civilian airframes cannot be converted as the P8 is a mix of 737 NG variants with the fuselage from the 737-800 but with stronger wings from the larger 737-900 and has raked wingtips similar to those fitted to the Boeing 767-400ER, instead of the blended winglets available on 737NG variants.

Pretty sure they exclusively have a KC46 production line, they aren't refurbing used 767 airframes to tanker spec (surely not? If the plan is to replace the tired old tanker fleet why wouldn't they go for new builds).

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by ads11

Any idea how many more units are left on the order book?

According to open sources, there are 2 more on order for Australia, 5 for Germany, 16 for Canada, 2 more for South Korea and less than a dozen perhaps for the US Navy. Fairly big number, buoyed by the Canadian orders. The Canadians take their time to place orders but buy in bulk (relative to their size) when they do unlike us making piecemeal orders.

Wait the Saudis operate or plan to operate the P8?! I didn't know that but I guess they want to have oversight of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for surface shipping issues - can't imagine they've got a lot in terms of subsurface threats to worry about there.

It's been going around for a while now. The P8 is more than an ASW, both the Indian and US navies have used the platform for land surveillance. So yea, with the troubles in the Red Sea, their doubts on American commitment and their regional great power ambitions, they will need such platforms. The UAE went a different way, purchasing the ISTAR (which India is trying to procure as well).

Was India the first export customer? If so that's a pretty unique distinction for US military kit.

If I remember correctly, India placed the orders while the P8s were still in development, so it got the first airframes at more or less the same time as the USN.

[V.Narayan]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/in-de...a9e8292a&ei=37

Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth of Mauritius jointly inaugurated an airstrip and a jetty that India has built on Agaléga, a set of two islands in the western Indian Ocean. The existing airstrip on North Agaléga Island was suitable for the Indian Navy’s Dornier aircraft operations, but the upgraded airstrip will allow the Navy to also operate the larger P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft. Basing aircraft on the island will require the construction of additional infrastructure, which comes with a full-fledged naval base. Operating from Agaléga, the Indian Navy’s long-range aircraft will be able to keep an eye on the western and southern Indian Ocean, and on the eastern and southern coast of Africa, significantly improving India’s maritime domain awareness in the region.

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Al Jazeera has come up with a short documentary (they call it an investigation but they seem to have taken all their information easily from the public domain ) on the new Indian Naval base on the Mauritian island of Agaléga that consists of a new 3000 m runway that can easily handle a P-8i or a C-17 while I believe ships can also be berthed there. You can also see houses being built for the Indian Naval Staff expected to be stationed there, so its a fully fledged naval base, though it can't be acknowledged as such for political reasons. It does give an interesting perspective on what India has been doing to push back against the increasing Chinese influence in the IOR.

Offcourse, Al Jazeera has obviously chosen to cover this development in a negative light which is unsurprising considering how they generally cover India.

Link to Al Jazeera article

https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=wKb1...JazeeraEnglish

[V.Narayan]

Documentary on Shorts Sealand, Indian Naval Aviation's first aircraft

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pyxo...mymEQ&index=14

Found this well made documentary on the Shorts Sealand, the IN's very first aircraft ever. Modest beginnings of our two carrier Navy.