[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Pakistan to purchase J-31 fifth-gen fighter jets from China

Biggest Question is how can they afford it? The Chinese will probably finance them.

But I do hope the Pakistanis get it. Given out history of "reactive" military equipment purchases, I hope it wakes those lazy fellows at the MoD, who are still deliberating over MMRCA v2.0 circus(or is it 3.0?) !!!

Originally Posted by dragracer567

While this probably won't send the Indian defense establishment into a frenzy given that the J-31 is still technically under development and exactly how capable these Chinese 5th-gen fighters are is still an open debate.

Agreed. Given that the PAF recently retired their Y-8 based AWACS that were not that old and given that the JF-17's other operators have had trouble operating it, it points to the obvious.

[fhdowntheline]

It is interesting and bothersome at the same time that PAF manages to keep an optimum combat fleet size and also equips them with fairly contemporary weaponry ( AMRAAM for example), while we are perennially struggling to define what we want, how much and by when.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by skanchan95

Biggest Question is how can they afford it? The Chinese will probably finance them.

Pretty sure the Pakistanis are getting a very significant discount along with the financing. Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are losing money on this & providing these as military aid, it would achieve the goal of keeping India busy elsewhere. After all, that's how the Pakistanis got the F16s in the first place.

Given that the PAF recently retired their Y-8 based AWACS

This was interesting indeed, especially because Pakistan was considered to be ahead in the AWACs race. The last airframes arrived as late as 2015, so barely operational for 8 years. We have Fiat Puntos in India that last longer!

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

It is interesting and bothersome at the same time that PAF manages to keep an optimum combat fleet size and also equips them with fairly contemporary weaponry (AMRAAM for example), while we are perennially struggling to define what we want, how much and by when.

Yes, very bothersome. Pakistan has the advantage of the military having almost complete control of the treasury and its economy. But should concede that the Pakistanis have done some crucial smart planning for the long term while we fidget about and take a decade to make piecemeal orders. When it comes to submarines, the situation is worse as Pakistan is expected to get more subs from China as well as Turkey (I believe).

[dragracer567]

Turkiye conducts first flight of the 5th Gen TFX Kaan

In what has been a significant development, the Turks have conducted the first flight of their 5th gen fighter aircraft - the TFX Kaan. The jet uses the FE F-110 engines that are used in the ubiquitous F16s that the Turks operate though it is expected that Turkey would develop their own engines as well.

It should be said that the Turks really won this round, they were denied deliveries of the F35s despite Turkish companies contributing to the development of the F35 program and now they have gotten their own 5th generation fighter jet off the ground. Even if the Kaan is not as capable as the F35, it's a domestic design that Turkey can mass produce. This should also bring the Americans down a notch about abandoning allies though Turkey's behaviour did contribute to this as well. This makes Turkey the fourth country to fly a domestic 5th-generation fighter after the US, Russia and China.

This is really a time for self-reflection in India, especially with certain funds for the AMCA program still pending approval and there isn't even a fully built prototype for the 4.5 gen Tejas Mk-2! Also, this means that the Pakistanis have two viable 5th-generation fighter options - the Kaan and the JF-31 while we really don't have many good options - there's the F35 which we might never get because some folks in the Indian security establishment allegedly wanted to play discount James Bond to stop a non-existent separatist movement (except perhaps in Surrey) + the Americans clearly don't want to sell the F35s to brown countries (Turkey, UAE), just like how they kept selling outdated F5s while their white allies got F16s. Then there's the Su-57 which we explicitly abandoned because we figured it wasn't going anywhere and the Russians haven't really bothered using it in Ukraine (for some reason). I know we seem to be on a roll diplomatically but we really need to assess many of our strategic choices & options.

[aim120]

While Turkey, South Korea have flown their prototypes. Meanwhile HAL or who ever is tasked to build the AMCA have cut two metal pieces, the first one was in early last year and the second one this year. I believe at this rate we will be lucky if we get a prototype built by 2035.

In 2009 Obama administration sold the Amraam C5 variant which meant it would out range the russian export variant R77 by at least 30km. It took until 2019 for IAF top brass to get a reality check for the need for missiles that can out range our adversary. Once we got the Meteor they got a J10 which can fire PL15E, so its not like we now have a quantum edge over them.
But fast forward to 2030 they will have 5th Gen capability, the Turkey Kaan appears to be a more capable design then the AMCA.

The war in Ukraine has shown that its quite easy to take out aircrafts like Su27, Su35, Su34 by long range air defenses by either side using S300/S400, Patriots. This means Russia will also start to understand the need for Su57 and Su75, basically allowing the planes to get closer to launch their UMPC (JDAM). Hopefully a back up option for India.

Cruise missiles and Ballistic missiles are just two expensive for sustained combat operations.

The future I believe is just AI powered drones, which cannot be jammed and are very difficult to spot or shoot down. Who ever can make enough of them will win.

Aircraft carriers, Surface ships , Tanks, Attack Helicopters will all become a relic soon. In Ukraine the number one killing machine apart from guns, artillery is drones. Since Ukraine has little artillery left they rely on drones. While Russia still outguns them in every metric from drones to artillery. Drones have taken over as de facto killing machine.

[bhairavp]

Also says a lot about how serious (not!) we are as a nation - 2 hostile enemies breathing down our borders, we order in small quantities, and then make emergency purchases when the excreta hits the fan. We don't trust our own MIC, don't support them, and go for platinum-plated imports.

[OrangeCar]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

F35 which we might never get because some folks in the Indian security establishment allegedly wanted to play discount James Bond to stop a non-existent separatist movement (except perhaps in Surrey) + the Americans clearly don't want to sell the F35s to brown countries (Turkey, UAE)

Attachment 2575254

Ocuh! That would have hurt pretty bad in some places.

Recently Foreign Minister said he is 'smart enough to have multiple options'.

Source

.

When one doesn't commit to one direction, I don't think we can expect the same commitment back. When in need, all the options that FM is talking about, might also say we have options.

USA doesn't need the money, its rich. So there is no incentive to sell F-35s to India. If there is an incentive, it is just to keep its power balance in check w.r.t other countries such as China. And if USA finds Japan, Australia are good enough to be able to check China militarily, they would forget India.

I do not think F-35s will ever come to India. And I hope I am wrong.

As far as I understand, Russian technology in general, is lagging quite much. And we have to pivot in one direction or the other. Not be in no man's land and say we have options.

[ex-innova-guy]

Originally Posted by OrangeCar

Recently Foreign Minister said he is 'smart enough to have multiple options'.

In International Relations, there are only national interests and no permanent friends or permanent enemies. I think it is nothing but a smart diplomatic answer to the question.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by bhairavp

Also says a lot about how serious (not!) we are as a nation - 2 hostile enemies breathing down our borders, we order in small quantities, and then make emergency purchases when the excreta hits the fan. We don't trust our own MIC, don't support them, and go for platinum-plated imports.

I think we need to look beyond just the politics and bureaucracy here. Perhaps our technical understanding of what is really required has never been up to the mark ? (not talking about operational capability). But there would be a layer who acts as a technical intermediary between the bureaucracy and the operational teams. Somewhere things are not very clear right there. Is the thinking process too much caught up in the political messaging about Atmanirbhar and Vishwaguru etc ? Is that why we are perennially confused about what we want, how much of it and by when.
While supposedly less powerful countries like Turkiye, South Korea are churning out capable military hardware, whether it is drones or combat airplanes. Basically, all work, no hype.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

I think we need to look beyond just the politics and bureaucracy here. Perhaps our technical understanding of what is really required has never been up to the mark ? (not talking about operational capability). But there would be a layer who acts as a technical intermediary between the bureaucracy and the operational teams. Somewhere things are not very clear right there. Is the thinking process too much caught up in the political messaging about Atmanirbhar and Vishwaguru etc ? Is that why we are perennially confused about what we want, how much of it and by when.
While supposedly less powerful countries like Turkiye, South Korea are churning out capable military hardware, whether it is drones or combat airplanes. Basically, all work, no hype.

I concur with this:

1) Our establishment has always lacked a strategic culture that's needed to become a superpower. This is true of the government, bureaucracy as well as the military. This is being rectified at the political level thanks to our energetic EAM and at the military level thanks to numerous exercises with Western, Middle Eastern & SE Asian allied countries. I don't know about the bureaucracy though.

2) Overreliance on Russia: The problem is that since the 70s, we've always assumed that Russia will always remain a close ally and will always produce high-end military equipment for us to buy. This calculus didn't change even when the Soviet Union broke up. Now, Russia is and probably will probably always remain a close ally no matter who is in charge but the quality of their military equipment has been deteriorating - so much so that our domestic equipment is deemed superior in many cases. This meant that many of our strategic projects like FGFA & MTA were held hostage for which we still don't have viable alternatives. This is why we are left without a viable fifth-generation fighter when Pakistan has two options on the table.

3) The indecision paralysis you talk about which is unfortunately augmented by a political focus on marketing rather than actually doing their job.

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A clip of the KAAN came up on my feed, have to say, Kudos to the Turks. Everyone laughed and rolled their eyes a bit at the typically bombastic claims from their end in the aftermath of their JSF ejection but you know, they have got a creditable looking demonstrator not only doing tarmac testing, doing it's first flight. It went from a plexiglass air show mock up barely 5 years ago (iirc) to a functioning flight demonstrator. Meanwhile the AMCA yet remains at the former stage - that's a pretty sobering indictment on India's home grown efforts.

https://youtu.be/43Z4XHivc-I?si=cD3VS7xgwcsNbyCp

Now with both the KAAN and the Boramae from the South Koreans, they're both very still demonstrators so there's still time yet till they get fielded operationally, and then enter the export market (though the rapid development pace does suggest it might be sooner than thought). Gotta say from an enthusiasts point of view it's interesting that there might be more diversity in the sector.

Originally Posted by aim120

The future I believe is just AI powered drones, which cannot be jammed and are very difficult to spot or shoot down. Who ever can make enough of them will win.

Aircraft carriers, Surface ships , Tanks, Attack Helicopters will all become a relic soon. In Ukraine the number one killing machine apart from guns, artillery is drones. Since Ukraine has little artillery left they rely on drones. While Russia still outguns them in every metric from drones to artillery. Drones have taken over as de facto killing machine.

Folks have proselytised the end of all these platforms for yonks now. They still remain in the picture. The big eye opener I think is one you've implicitly suggested though without emphasising. It's not that drones are going to be a major area of development in future warfare, that's known. It's ammunition. Or more specifically the fact that in the post Cold War peace dividend era, manufacturing and supply chains got rationalised to such an extent they just aren't going to be able to cope with the rate at which stocks get chewed through the moment it goes full throttle. Just looking at Ukraine you see both sides recognising this with both NATO and Russia amping up their own munitions manufacturing. I've harboured a suspicion for a while now that the economics of long range strike is the underlying driver. Look beyond the sci-fi optics of rail guns for eg, the real reason for their attractiveness is the unit cost of the ammo so to speak, and the fact it theoretically enables long range fires at precision and volume without costing 6 figures a shot say when you empty a whole VLS of cruise missiles. But that's probably enough off topic rambling from me.

[dragracer567]

CCS approves proposal to design and manufacture the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)

The CCS has finally given the long pending approval to finally design and manufacture the first prototypes of the AMCA. A total of 5 prototypes will be assembled with the first one expected by 2026-28. The jets will initially come with the GE F414 engines which will be assembled in India and shared with the Tejas MK-2. However, latter versions will likely have an engine developed indigenously in collaboration with Safran of France though Rolls Royce and GE are also in talks. So, the Tejas MK-2 prototype was cleared in 2022, so likely both would enter service concurrently.

This is after the wake-up call where it seemed increasingly likely that both the KAAN and the JC-31 would enter Pakistani service while we still haven't decided on MRFA and just recently decided to buy more MK-1As (good move) to save time. However, some comments on social media seem to indicate that the Turks followed a different model where they prioritized the first flight over sensor integration while the AMCA's first prototype would come with all the sensors integrated - so the overall timeline for induction would be the same - not sure how true this is however.

That said, the wake-up call should've been when the Chinese themselves got the fifth-gen fighters. Infact, while the western media talks about the US-China Cold War, the real competition is between India and China as Narayan sir indicated in the post below. India-China relations are at their lowest in decades, so much so that the initial taboo over naming China has passed over with the EAM pointing sharp verbal attacks on China during many of his recent international public interactions. There seems to be a general confusion - especially in the west about Indian neutrality - India is neutral only with Russia, when it comes to China, India is probably the most active in countering Chinese influence in the IOR and slowly even in the Eastern Pacific. The Vietnamese and Philippines increasingly look to India as a net security provider as we are in the Red Sea crisis but we need to build our capability to fill this role.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

In a way we are now in a cold war with China. We have berthing & fueling rights in Vietnam, we are selling Brahmos anti-ship missiles to Philippines and they are snuggling into Maldives, not to mention Gwadar and Djibouti.

[Tilak_7k_1979]

Originally Posted by directinjection

From a look at the video of the Tejas crash in circulation, I'm wondering why the pilot wasn't able to take the plane away from populated area (the usual practice in such emergencies)? This plane crashed into the wall of a hostel. The plane wasn't on fire before the crash and looks quite normal in the video; couldn't the pilot have made it glide a bit longer? Unlike the dart shaped MiG 21, Tejas has huge wings - wouldn't they have helped in gliding? The cause of the crash is said to be engine failure but we do not yet know if the same was caused by bird ingestion. The official court of inquiry should reveal the reasons.

https://Youtu.be/UPmTdPzDfF8?si=uhgv9FSlg_HkezBC

https://Youtu.be/iGj10rOdr08?si=pLxe_HWrTLZfjeO1

Very unfortunate event. Landing gear was down so it should be on approach to land. Could be a Loss of Control (LOC) event or probably engine failure and throttle could not be cut off.

Hope the problem is identified soon. Does event like this cause any operational effect on other LCA fighters till inquiry is done?

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Originally Posted by Tilak_7k_1979

Hope the problem is identified soon. Does event like this cause any operational effect on other LCA fighters till inquiry is done?

Was going to ask, is it likely there'll be a fleet grounding to work out the cause? I suppose if more than 1 goes down then yes but equally for the first such incident in decades you could equally have a move like that from an abundance of caution.

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Noticed the South Koreans have released images of the Boramae beginning aerial refuelling testing with a A330MRTT. They along with the Turks certainly have the narrative reigns so to speak with their seemingly closely spaced developmental milestones for each of their domestic fast jets.

Not that India is looking to partner with any external nation on fast jet projects currently, and I doubt South Korea would like to impede their progress with the exceptionally measured approach of India, but you have to wonder who the Koreans partner with if Indonesia indeed pulls out or is forced out of the Boramae programme? Reading that Indonesian engineers were caught stealing data from the programme (surely being a development partner they'd have access to the data anyway?!), not to mention earlier reports of payment delays. Would be curious to hear who the others think might fill that potential void in the Boramae development programme.