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Old 12th July 2019, 22:00   #61
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Fab thread. All said and done anything can happen in our country. I foresee EVs taking over at least not in my lifetime. The ICE has more potential. Iím all for electric vehicles when all the required infra is in place like the existing one. And Iíll for sure buy one which at some point will give me a 1000-1500 km range and falls in the < 10L bracket. Only time will tell.

But for now I feel more hybrids will come. And petrol & diesel are here to stay. If not diesels being relegated to larger capacity motors only.
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Old 12th July 2019, 22:35   #62
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by shashankjain16 View Post
Some of the key points:
  • Lithium forms only 5-7% of Lithium-ion batteries. Major components are cobalt and nickel which are not only recyclable but also recycling is profitable.
  • Oil is dug from beneath more ecologically sensitive areas. Lithium is mined in deserted places like the Atacama desert in Chile where very less life is supported.
  • Emissions from EVs does depend on the mode of production of electricity. Still, if we take the most conservative for electricity produced non-renewable sources, EVs still perform better. A 30kW battery EV will break-even oil-powered cars in less than 2 years. A 100kW battery EV will break even in about 5-6 years. But, this is a very conservative estimate, and actual will probably be quite less because we produce a mix of coal-powered and renewable energy.
  • EVs typically have much more life because they have very less moving parts and require very less maintenance. Many manufacturers are providing 8 years, 1,00,000 miles warranty for batteries in the US. So, you can see the life of batteries in itself.
  • When comparing EVs, people often cite the mining of Li and emissions of producing batteries, but no one talks about emissions that go in refining oil. Plus, big ships transporting crude oil and danger they pose to oceans in case of leakage.
  • More importantly, it is much easier to switch electricity production from coal to renewable sources, than it is to switch vehicles sold. Centralization!
  • Electric motors are much more efficient than petrol/diesel engines. A big part of these engines is lost in heat, while in motors almost all energy is directly converted to mechanical energy.
  • Switching to EVs will make our city airs cleaner and prevent pre-mature deaths caused by air pollution and the extra burden it puts on government for insurance and treatment.
I take all your points. I'm a believer that EVs are a fad and hydrogen powered cars will be the future in 2 decades. For EVs, how are Indian users going to charge them? Are we going to have a maze of cables on the street?


I'm not against greener technology. Just give me a good alternative and I'll switch. I agree with Bajaj that banning one form of technology is not the right approach in all cases- it can be done in MPFI vs carburetors but not for smartphone vs feature phones.
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Old 12th July 2019, 23:04   #63
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

The saying "One thing that's constant is Change": very easy to say and very hard to face when ''Change" comes knocking. Life is in a state of constant Flux! But in India, there's never been a level playing field: High cost of funds, corruption at every corner and every stage of running a business etc are big obstacles. Battery tech has a very long way to go, infrastructure is at best ''primitive", taxes are very high as compared the other competitive markets, bureaucracy is one dinosaur that defies death. There's huge voltage fluctuations and outages in the best cities in India. What we dream of is EV's and Bullet trains when there's no water and power and even our regular trains run late constantly and are at best suited for moving poultry, not people. Basically, I pity Rahul Bajaj who has so successfully helmed Bajaj Auto despite all the obstacles. Govt babus and their masters have constantly put the cart in front of the horse: they'll implement and bring cars with cat converters even before unleaded gasoline is freely available as we have seen before. Bear with me a little more, my residence's transformer went kaput and was not set right for 3 weeks: I was asked for a 'bribe' by an AE to set his equipment right and we had to pull strings with 'vigilance' for him to work and he did a half hearted job as expected: so there's a lot of truth in Bajaj's rant.
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Old 12th July 2019, 23:16   #64
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

As far as my reading goes the Govt has only put out a draft policy for discussion with the industry. That is what sound government is all about - talk to the stakeholders. This happens all the time in all industries. The process of talking through chambers of commerce or directly one on one is encouraged. To some extent it is listened to also. A Govt policy maker is a firefighter and an arsonist at the same time. Any policy he puts out will receive an applause from a million and will be booed down by another million.

Bajaj is right in so much that ICE engines should not be banned overnight across the country but in stages of size, usage and geography and the transition needs a decade at the least, maybe 15 years and not 5 or 6 years. Bajaj is off base in the tone of his ranting. Niti Aayog, not the most wise of Govt organizations needs to listen. With an ex-MP for a father Bajaj should know more than most how to engage with the Govt. Yelling in the press is usually not a sensible way to engage with bureaucrats and ministers. Just think how often have you heard Kumar Mangalam Birla ranting.

Sometimes even in the mechanical world technologies change overnight and those who don't adopt get left behind. A Govt has to address multiple priorities in policies such as this - pollution, energy, the future trend world wide, tax collection, employment, customers, OEMs, political message, economic contribution to GDP, impact on MSME , exports, etc. As you see customers and OEMs are but two of several factors to be addressed. That is why often to a layman like you or me Govt policy sounds stupid because we often see it only from our perspective. Working in the private sector most of us are not exposed to the multiple factors a Govt decision must cater to.

It would be my advice to Mr Bajaj to address his suggestions to Mr Gadkari rather than the press.

Industry wide change in motive power took place almost overnight in the airliner industry roughly in 1958 to 1961. Prior to that propeller driven aircraft dominated the skies. Turbojets were seen as okay for the military but not for civil airliners - inadequate range being the number one reason. Then Boeing introduced the 707 in 1958. Many said it is too large for the airport infrastructure and runways of the era. Others complained that labour will have to be re-trained, la de la. Ten years later every prop airliner OEM who could not adopt to jet airliners and make jet airliners their bread and butter had either folded up or merged with a bigger OEM - Martin, De Havilland, Handley Page, Bristol, Convair, Vickers, AV Roe etc And all of these were very big names in 1957. Something similar could happen here.
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Old 13th July 2019, 06:13   #65
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

It's good that govt is trying to assimilate opinion from different stake holders. Whether it can be implemented in 5 or 6 years is highly questionable. For now it's a draft and discussions have started.

Mr Bajaj is showing unnecessary worry about the ban.
Logistically it is impossible to ban ice engines,we don't have the infrastructure for evs and it will be another 2 decades to make it as easily available as fuel outlets.

Financially, a substantial amount from fossil fuels fills the govt coffers. I don't think govt will take a hit on it and other form taxation will trickle to end user. If left to the market, ice engines will not become Nokia as cost and convinience are in their favour for next decade or so.

Currently renewable energy is very high on investment.Replacing our power generating tech will take decades,so environment friendly is not an appropriate term for evs in current situation. Please visit a thermal plant to see the emissions.

Evs were around in 1920ss, fuel is money for all people concerned in world govts so nothing will be banned and it will be left to the market.

I am sorry to say but it looks like some image building campaign run by Mr Bajaj and Govt draft is also looks like a PR exercise, perhaps they also want to grab some headlines. Meanwhile mother earth will suffer for human need of energy.
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Old 13th July 2019, 06:15   #66
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

An interesting article in Electric Vs Fuel cell technology:

"It's a common misconception that electric and hydrogen cars are zero emissions. While no gasses are emitted from their exhausts, the manufacturing process for both types of vehicle still results in CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere.

Jon Hunt, Toyota’s head of commercialisation of hydrogen fuel cell cars, told Auto Express that manufacturing a lithium-ion battery for an electric car is a very energy-intensive process.

As an example, a 100kWh battery will give a potential range of 250 miles and, in order to produce that battery, it will take around 20 tonnes of CO2,

https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-c...ich-are-better
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Old 13th July 2019, 09:10   #67
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Of course Bajaj will say this. Their contraption called auto has served way ahead of it's time and some more.

On the other hand, He does have some valid points though. While the intention of the govt is noble, we don't have the infra for it. Filling up petrol takes minutes while charging the car takes hours. Even if every petrol bunk would have a charging point it would still not be enough. And we dont have any precedence here as no country has implemented this in scale.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:19   #68
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by Alfresco View Post
An interesting article in Electric Vs Fuel cell technology:

"It's a common misconception that electric and hydrogen cars are zero emissions. While no gasses are emitted from their exhausts, the manufacturing process for both types of vehicle still results in CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere.

Jon Hunt, Toyota’s head of commercialisation of hydrogen fuel cell cars, told Auto Express that manufacturing a lithium-ion battery for an electric car is a very energy-intensive process.

As an example, a 100kWh battery will give a potential range of 250 miles and, in order to produce that battery, it will take around 20 tonnes of CO2,

https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-c...ich-are-better
We can't listen to Toyota or Chevron on this matter, they are conflicted. We need to look at the pollution caused in manufacturing ICE cars as well. Then look at after burning in oil wells, transporting oil, processing oil, and oil spills. None of these guys clean up after a spill. Once oil wells go dry, will they clean the ocean floor? Hydrogen cars like Mirai are a joke.

Sure, every factory producing everything from coal power/electricity is polluting. That doesn't make oil any cleaner. An EV can run 2 decades without any more pollution. Distribution of electricity also is free of pollution, unlike oil tankers and ships

When I read articles like this, I feel companies like Tesla need to start spending money on advertising and traditional media outreach. They are relying too much on bloggers and their CEOs tweets.

Last edited by GutsyGibbon : 13th July 2019 at 10:31.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:43   #69
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Why is there no traction on Hydrogen powered cars? The cars can be refuelled like any conventional car and the emission is as clean as EVs. Can someone shed some light on this please?

Last edited by VVN : 13th July 2019 at 10:44. Reason: Missed a word
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Old 13th July 2019, 11:19   #70
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

The target consumers are still struggling to get basic amenities, first build a nation where people can live decent life. Unless the CV segment is not taken into confidence, the transition plan to EVs is a highly unrealistic.
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Old 13th July 2019, 14:46   #71
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

An article about EVs and pollution, but am not 100% sure about "facts" presented in this article though.

Electric Vehicles Will Worsen India's Pollution Crisis - At this juncture, India’s EV future looks promising only for investors.
https://thewire.in/environment/elect...ies-coal-power

Quote:
Share of coal-based power in the country’s energy mix will rise to 51% in 2030 from the present 47%. Thermal power plants are predicted to double their generation capacity by 2047.
Quote:
The charging infrastructure required to usher in the EV growth will ultimately depend on highly polluting coal-fired thermal power plants. Burning coal is one of the primary causes of air pollution. Plants in India take the highest toll in the world when it came to health.
Quote:
Even advanced nations are struggling with their Li-ion waste. In the European Union, for example, only an estimated 5% of the lithium from Li-ion batteries is recovered; the rest is either buried in landfills or burnt in incinerators.
Quote:
Safe recycling remains a challenge even for mature battery technologies like lead-acid. Despite strong laws, economies in transition like India are yet to develop robust recycling and/or buy-back systems that guarantee 100% formal recycling.

Last edited by SmartCat : 13th July 2019 at 14:58.
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Old 13th July 2019, 14:57   #72
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

The concerns expressed in the article looks very much possible in India. We are still not clear on the use of nuclear energy for power generation, waste management is already a problem in power projects. The policy makers should first create an environment where EVs can survive, otherwise we cannot survive.
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Old 13th July 2019, 15:15   #73
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
An article about EVs and pollution, but am not 100% sure about "facts" presented in this article though.

Electric Vehicles Will Worsen India's Pollution Crisis - At this juncture, Indiaís EV future looks promising only for investors.
https://thewire.in/environment/elect...ies-coal-power
As expected, industry seems to have started peddling lies through media to show EVs as bad. Truth is even when powered with coal, EVs pollute much lesser than ICE (petrol/diesel) vehicles.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...-still-cleaner

Coming to other major point of, source of electricity for EVs, most of the EV electricity demand will be met by renewable (solar, wind) energy. Renewable energy revolution started 4-5 years back in India and we are adding much higher solar+wind capacity than thermal in the last 3 years. In addition old thermal plants which are more polluting than new ones are being closed.

Our renewable energy addition each year for the last 2 years is more than enough to power, even if all the new vehicles (2/3 wheelers, cars, buses, etc...) become EVs. Renewable energy is now the cheapest form of electricity in India. Electricity generation from coal is 2-3 times costlier than solar or wind energy. The only reason for the coal plants survival is they are mostly owned by state or central govts. They are debt ridden, loss making entities. Central/state govts are planning to close many old coal plants over the next decade.

Here are some calculations I posted in another thread:
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...ml#post4606703 (Power minister wants India to become 100% e-vehicle nation by 2030)

Last edited by sri_tesla : 13th July 2019 at 15:19.
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Old 13th July 2019, 15:32   #74
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by sri_tesla View Post
As expected, industry seems to have started peddling lies through media to show EVs as bad.
Yeah, maybe. That's why I said I was not sure about the facts presented in that article.

Quote:
Truth is even when powered with coal, EVs pollute much lesser than ICE (petrol/diesel) vehicles.
But remember that Indian coal is "dirty". Not sure if the calculations are applicable to Indian coal power plants.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/68092635.cms

Quote:
Coming to other major point of, source of electricity for EVs, most of the EV electricity demand will be met by renewable (solar, wind) energy.
NTPC's MD was on TV saying solar and wind power is not "reliable". Solar/wind power have a "plant load factor" of 15% to 25%, while coal and natural gas power plants' PLF is 60 to 75%. And that's why growth in traditional methods of power generation will continue to go up. I'm not an expert on this matter - but I assume that this means 1000 MW coal power plant will generate 3x more power units per year than 1000 MW solar/wind power plant? Simply because coal plants don't need sun to shine and wind to "blow" to generate power?

<Added> Found this article and chart on Wiki. This chart is for US power plants. Indian data might be different.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor

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Last edited by SmartCat : 13th July 2019 at 15:44.
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Old 13th July 2019, 15:57   #75
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Default Re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
But remember that Indian coal is "dirty". Not sure if the calculations are applicable to Indian coal power plants.
As I said in above post, older coal plants which are more polluting are being closed. They need to be closed at the earliest, whether we use them for charging EVs or not. Also, govt announced budgetary support to them in this year's budget which is a good decision along with closing many old coal plants.

Quote:
NTPC's MD was on TV saying solar and wind power is not "reliable". Solar/wind power have a "plant load factor" of 15% to 25%, while coal and natural gas power plants' PLF is 60 to 75%. And that's why growth in traditional methods of power generation will continue to go up. I'm not an expert on this matter - but I assume that this means 1000 MW coal power plant will generate 3x more power units per year than 1000 MW solar/wind power plant?
This is true. PLF is lower for solar plants but they are still cheaper after considering low PLFs. For example, per unit cost electricity from many state owned coal plants is between Rs 5 to Rs 8. But for solar and wind plants the average unit cost based on the solar and wind plant auctions for the last 2-3 years is less than Rs 3. They are much cheaper and easier to build, running and maintenance costs are very low as there is no need of coal. The solar and wind equipment costs are going down across the world including India due to technology improvements, economies of scale each year.

Offshore wind farms (wind plants in oceans) are starting to come up in huge capacities across the world. Their PLF ranges from 40% to 65% much higher than onshore wind plants. For the last few years, they are becoming cheaper rapidly. India has huge coastline which can be used to setup these wind plants.
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