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Old 11th July 2019, 16:16   #1
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Default Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Government's current EV plan is not convincing enough: Rajiv Bajaj
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/70164933.cms

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whether you are an OEM or a startup, you can only make the vehicle to best of your abilities. Ultimately, the customer has to buy it. And that is where the problem starts. Today, electric vehicles constitute less than 1% of the size of the industry and for the life of me, I cannot understand how somebody can imagine that 1% can become 100% in six years' time.
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We are saying that we are the same industry who are making world-class two-wheelers and three-wheelers. The proof of that is that we are exporting 3 million vehicles every year. These are earning a great name for our country across. These are earning $3 billion of forex
Quote:
When one is supportive of EVs, why is there one faction which wants to ban IC (internal combustion) engine? When four-stroke engines were first brought into the country by Hero Honda, why did you not say that ban the two-stroke engine? Two-stroke and four-stroke were overlapping for almost 20 years.
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People are bringing EVs to India from China — 99% of EV sellers are traders, they are not engineers. They are just traders who are giving jobs to China by bringing the vehicles from there and dumping them in this market.

Last edited by SmartCat : 11th July 2019 at 16:23.
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Old 11th July 2019, 16:24   #2
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

When MPFI came, did any government ban carburetors?
When digital cameras came, did any government ban the film cameras?

When there is a compelling option, people surely take it. Let there be good practical EVs and let IC engine meet it's own fate.
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Old 11th July 2019, 17:05   #3
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

He does have some very valid points. Like many of us suspect, it's not our hate for EV that we say this dream is not achievable. For 50 year's we know at what pace our country is growing and how people spend. So it's only logical to think that, what the govt is proposing is nothing but an over hyped dream.

Dependence of fossil fuel is not going to end anytime soon, at least for India.
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Old 11th July 2019, 17:22   #4
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

A story: Once upon a time there lived a king and his kingdom was just but a thick forest. There was not any open yard. But the Majesty had a desire to conduct horse races. He brought horses from far away lands and asked his men to whip start. But how, there is no open land, it is just thick forest and thorny bushes. People wondered there is no race course, somebody should tell the king, horse races are done in tracks that we need to build. But who would dare to speak up, none of his ministers had the guts. They whipped and all horses ran astray. They could not even find them back from the woods.

moral: Before you drive the crowd build the course.

Last edited by Thermodynamics : 11th July 2019 at 17:32.
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Old 11th July 2019, 18:17   #5
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

ICE powered vehicles are a cash cow, all manufacturers get most of the profits from selling spares (in some cases 2000% mark up). Oem suppliers of CVT, manual/auto gear box, carburator, spark plug, clutch, filters, Injectors etc will be out of business.

With EV, Lithium battery and electronic component makers will get rich and neither of these two have any presence in India.

Even the Japanese government wants to transition to Hybrids first, in order to protect the large automobile OEMs.

EV is going to disruptive and if the traditional ICE vehicle and OEMs are not in tune with the trend, they will have to shut shop. The world is not going to wait for them.

Ice powered cars killed the electric car more then a century ago, Oil companies have been buying battery startup companies and shutting them down along with their patents.

The next decade is going to be a brutal revenge by the EV. But it will be a tough fight, the Oil mafia will not go without a fight. Remember most wars in the middle east are all happening in countries with oil reserve and when there is money to be made, it also attracts some big super powers.

If the Iran-US conflict escalates, it will cause oil prices to rise and will only help EV vehicles.

So Bajaj, HMSI etc should quit whining and invest in EV tech. If a start up like Ather can launch a world class product, why can't these big companies with much deeper pockets do so.

Last edited by aim120 : 11th July 2019 at 18:19.
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Old 11th July 2019, 18:37   #6
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by aim120 View Post
So Bajaj, HMSI etc should quit whining and invest in EV tech. If a start up like Ather can launch a world class product, why can't these big companies with much deeper pockets do so.
- Hero Moto owns 35% of Ather Energy.
- Bajaj Auto will have EVs in their portfolio soon
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/motor...es-2020-a.html (Bajaj to launch sub-brand for electric vehicles by 2020)

So Rajiv Bajaj is not against EVs. He is only criticizing government's plan to go 100% EV after X years for two wheelers and three wheelers.

Last edited by SmartCat : 11th July 2019 at 18:40.
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Old 11th July 2019, 18:38   #7
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by aim120 View Post
So Bajaj, HMSI etc should quit whining and invest in EV tech. If a start up like Ather can launch a world class product, why can't these big companies with much deeper pockets do so.
Because Ather cannot make good ICE vehicles and Bajaj/HMSI cannot build EVs now. Maybe someone would invest with a long term plan and it might click, making their investment highly profitable.
But from a business point of view, even as per Kotak's reports, only 5-6% or so of the populace would switch to EVs after 2025 - it doesn't make sense to fully dive into EVs and shut ICE vehicles. That's what Mr Bajaj is saying.

Why shut ICE?
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Old 11th July 2019, 18:46   #8
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

He's outspoken for sure, but he's wrong in my opinion - EVs are the future we are at the cusp of a breakout wave that will swamp legacy ICE vehicles within the next 2-3 years.

I used to work for Motorola in the in the early 2000's - in 2003, at a Mobile phones corporate event in Delhi - there was a promotional film on future mobility where ppl were using full screen phones to video call & watch movies - everyone agreed that such tech was 15 years away at a minimum - but then the iPhone launched just 4 years later & the rest is history.

All the big boys at that event - Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson are gone.

My limited point being that the March of Technology is relentless & Bajaj can either get on the right side of the upcoming wave or be washed away to Obscurity.

Last edited by driven646 : 11th July 2019 at 18:49.
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Old 11th July 2019, 18:53   #9
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

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Originally Posted by driven646 View Post
in 2003, at a Mobile phones corporate event in Delhi - there was a promotional film on future mobility where ppl were using full screen phones to video call & watch movies - everyone agreed that such tech was 15 years away at a minimum - but then the iPhone launched just 4 years later & the rest is history. All the big boys at that event - Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson are gone.
Touschreen + Appstore was a giant leap when compared to pre-2008 feature phones. Is an electric vehicle such a giant leap over petrol/diesel vehicle? EVs have more negatives than positives when compared to petrol/diesel vehicles. EVs will not sell unless incentives are given to both customers and manufacturers. And even after incentives/tax breaks/policies/rules and subsidies -

- None of the EV makers are profitable.
- EVs are still 2x to 5x more expensive than petrol/diesel vehicles.

More importantly, it does not solve the issue of India's dependence on imports. Instead of importing oil from Middle East, we will be importing Lithium ion batteries and EV components from China.

Your phone example is exactly what Rajiv Bajaj is trying to convey. Customers themselves chose touchscreen phones over feature phones, without any Govt interference in the form of rules or policies.

Last edited by SmartCat : 11th July 2019 at 19:07.
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Old 11th July 2019, 19:01   #10
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Being futuristic and being foolish is separated by just a small wall. This "100% EVs by 2030" falls in the second category.

Auto companies invest a lot of money for the development, takes many years to develop new tech and models. If this new rule is not withdrawn now, manufacturers will stop research in the fossil-fuel engine models well in advance. Then, all of a sudden, if the govt withdraws the rule and allow those fossil-fuel vehicles to continue along with EVs even after 2030, the companies will have only older models in their line-up.

Let both EVs and fossil-fuel types co-exist and face their own fate decided by the customers.

Also, those who currently own a car / "being driven in a car" should not decide that all those who would like to buy car in the future should buy costly EVs only. Those poor people also have the right to buy the car of their choice.

Last edited by SmartCat : 11th July 2019 at 19:06. Reason: Removed political lines :)
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Old 11th July 2019, 19:59   #11
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by anandpadhye View Post
When MPFI came, did any government ban carburetors?
When digital cameras came, did any government ban the film cameras?

When there is a compelling option, people surely take it. Let there be good practical EVs and let IC engine meet it's own fate.
Film camera's do not pollute like ICE's do. That's the gist of the story. Mr. Bajaj has nothing to show when it comes to electric vehicles where as startups have started launching vehicles. His main problem seems to be why ban IC engines? My answer is because they pollute. Straight and simple. Two wheeler IC engines needed to be banned, the question is 2025 or 2030 or 2035. Ather has already released a product at Rs. 1.30 lakh. The cost only needs to come down Rs. 75K for them to be a mainstream product.

Bad mouthing competitors doesn't help when you have not made a start.

For once Govt is trying to do something but the industry objects.

Last edited by Aditya : 12th July 2019 at 08:35. Reason: Language :)
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Old 11th July 2019, 20:07   #12
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

EVs are future. Government by force, policy, pursuance or being catalyst can make this happen.

Just because Rajiv or his company is not ready with necessary tech will not impact the game. For all we know Ather may anhilate Bajaj just like Mi or Apple did with other incumbent big players.

People collectively make a right decision is never proven, Brexit is classic example , if you study much into it. So leaving it to market dynamics, essentially when car makers and fuel companies have grown to such behemoth size, they can make wind flow in their direction.

Last edited by Thilak29 : 11th July 2019 at 20:09.
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Old 11th July 2019, 21:02   #13
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

When four strokes came, Bajaj was still churning out polluting 2 strokes.

All these years, Bajaj has been churning out the rickety absolutely unsafe 3 wheelers costing north of 1.5 lacs, he had no issues then.

Let him shout and cry hoarse. They have already squeezed out a thousand times over their infra cost.
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Old 11th July 2019, 21:02   #14
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

We are at a cusp where climate change would wreak havoc in another decade, more specifically India is one of those countries which will be badly hit by Tsunami's, Drought and what not.

Dont be so blind towards your favorite hobby that you start objecting a good thing. India is leading the charge towards becoming green. This is a very good thing for all citizens. I will infact say that government ought to do more to support EV adoption.

Last edited by ampere : 11th July 2019 at 21:41.
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Old 11th July 2019, 21:38   #15
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Default re: Rajiv Bajaj's blistering attack on the Government's "shift to EV" plan

I find Mr. Bajaj's position quite QUTE!

No wonder he's trying to defend an archaic business model based on selling outdated technology.
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