[Aditya_Bhp]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

This is exactly what many here have been writing about.

a section of public health experts and epidemiologists, including the deputy director general, DGHS, health ministry, have said that in developing its COVID-19 strategy—especially the lockdown—the government did not consult epidemiologists, and relied instead on “clinicians and academic epidemiologists with limited field training and skills”.

Preventive and Social Medicine is a branch of medicine that has huge potential but is neglected by the government. Epidemics and Pandemics are best handled by PSM doctors, because they specialise in it. But PSM doctors are poorly paid and ignored most of the time.

Recently Karnataka govt realized the importance of Public Health experts and they offered jobs on emergency basis, but then the pay was less, just ₹40000pm. That’s lesser than what a doctor without PG is offered in a medical college. No one would join and posts remain vacant.

Even on TV, media interviews are mostly around people like Dr.Devi Shetty, who is a Cardiothoracic surgeon, one who has no role in treating Covid19 patients, its ‘out of syllabus’ for him.
The leading doctor in NITI Aayog, Dr Paul, he is a Pediatrician, he can manage Covid19 patients but then he cannot plan public health, at the max he can look into nutritional requirements of the children.

Public Health needs qualified experts, who understand the Community as whole, are experienced in handling epidemics and the statistics around it and can plan and take necessary steps. And most PSM doctors in India after being neglected by GOI, are picked up by WHO and other global agencies. Atleast now, the govt should realise their potential and listen to them.

[ABHI_1512]

The funny part as things stand today- it will be just like earlier days in some months with just the addition of masks and sanitisers. So, what exactly the lockdown achieved ?? A lockdown would have been effective if it happened at the correct time and enforced in a certain way. I was laughing reading a report yesterday in the newspapers that the hotels, restaurants and malls were being given a period of seven days to prepare for the re-opening when the authorities gave four hours to the entire country before shutting it down !

Time and again I have said the same thing and that the authorities were to be blamed for the current state of the country. They were completely negligent towards tackling the virus and while they were at it, they created a humongous humanitarian crisis which resulted in deaths which were completely avoidable. Also, no one has a clue about the economic mess that’s staring at us.

Coming back to the issue, it’s almost impossible to remain virus free in a country as densely populated as India. There are so many touch points across our everyday lives that it will take monumental efforts to remain virus free. I have read and understood the basic safety precautions one has to take and yet I am prepared for any eventuality. The panic that had gripped the entire country is slowly wearing off since the number of deaths without covid is far higher than the deaths with covid !!

The way the central government and the state governments are going about making whimsical decisions, I am for seeing a spike in the number of cases in the coming months for sure. Vaccine we will have to wait but our daily lives will go on. What we are expected to do now is what we should have been doing at the first place. Now after the economy has gone for a toss, lockdown suddenly makes no sense and government washing off their hands and it’s all up to the citizens now to look after themselves just like the migrant workers were left to fend for themselves.

This thread will remain as a proof of the monumental blunder that we witnessed and a cursory glance over it will show the skewed ratio of people having voted for the lockdown and yet having a thread where rationality and pragmatism took over by logical reasoning.

[poloman]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

We have to look at the reasons and come out with solutions.
Why did the cases go up? Our strategy of testing only those who had symptoms as per ICMR criteria was inadequate. What was needed, test everyone with lower respiratory symptoms. Contact tracing and testing secondary cases was a joke when you were testing primary cases inadequately!

What should have been done? We should have allowed people to return to home states and then lock down. .

You are arguing on both sides. This is exactly govt did at the initial phases, by keeping the air travel from other countries open till March 22 by allowing them to return.

Allow time for 8Cr migrants and allow lockdown? Is this practical? How are you going to quarantine such a huge population with no control of entry and exit. As per the reports virus was spreading in full force even in March. Since the testing was less figures were low no one knew the spread. So the figures would not have been much different in that case as well.

India is not a Sweden or South Korea or that matter Vietnam. Here everything is politicized and decisions will be always taken under political pressure. So the only thing we can do now is leave everything in God' s hand and pray.

As expected some so called real experts have started speaking up against the lockdown. This is laughable. Predicting the result of match after the game is over. Where were these guys when decisions were taken? Real epidemiologists were sleeping so far it seems.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by poloman

You are arguing on both sides. This is exactly govt did at the initial phases, by keeping the air travel from other countries open till March 22 by allowing them to return.

Allow time for 8Cr migrants and allow lockdown? Is this practical? How are you going to quarantine such a huge population with no control of entry and exit?

Truth be told, the government was sleeping with no plan. Let’s not talk about the role of the government at all. Regarding the migrants part, why do you think the migrants started to move to their native place at the first place? The sudden announcement of the lockdown made them jittery and hence the reaction. If they had the assurance of food and their basic needs taken care off, I don’t think they would have moved and their in lies the whole story. Please go through the link and you will know what I am talking about.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75839368.cms


The virus did not originate in India. Look at how Sikkim doesn’t have a single case of covid positive now. That’s because there is only one way to enter Sikkim and that entry is sealed for outsiders for now and that’s how they stopped the virus from entering the state. Our country could have taken the same step very early in the year by screening the passengers and stopping the flights from covid effected countries, at least the numbers would not have reached where they are now !

[Col Mehta]

Originally Posted by fordday

Thank you for the link.

From the article which says "Their actions in late January and early February were very much in advance of many other countries. And that was enormously helpful ... for them to be able to retain control."

Seems their early actions paid off well.
I don't remember specifics, but what was our official govt reactions to Covid19 in that time?

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Nothing much, putting a infra red thermometer to one's forehead! No quarantine for travellers from abroad at that time. The government grossly underestimated the threat. What happened next was botched up catch up plans. We will have to see how this ends. As the Central government has washed their hands off, the blame will land on citizens. Going forward I suspect states may stop reporting cases officially.

My son came back on 09th March from a foreign travel. Only temperature check, filling up a mandatory form with travel, health and personal details at the airport with no quarantine protocols whatsoever. And this is when the Covid-19 numbers were already on the rise in other parts of the world. Too late it was. I say our government handled the situation very poorly in the early days. I strongly feel we were late to react at least by a month, if not more.

The lockdown, while it was very much required, came too late and quite abruptly. Maybe because they realised it was about to turn into a out of control situation. Ideally the lockdown should have been initiated earlier and the migrant workers should have been allowed to return home first. It's just beyond me how on earth they didn't foresee this. God bless those migrant workers who had to bear the brunt of all this. My heart goes out for them.

[Safety is Param]

Originally Posted by vivek95

Thanks a lot. I agree, better not to plan travel in this case.

From today's edition of TOI

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by Safety is Param

From today's edition of TOI

Thank you But these newspapers quote only a part of the entire notification creating more confusion Official notification places this "Covid negative report" clause under the category of - business travellers from Maharashtra visiting Karnataka for a 7 day period. Also, explicitly mentions about a valid flight or train ticket, so I presume this invalidates anyone travelling by personal car. How will the authorities ascertain if I am heading back to Mumbai after a 7 day stay in Belgaum ? I cannot even experiment because Maharashtra--Karnataka border from where I live in Mumbai is 400 kms / 7.5 hours away. If things turn unfavorable, I would rather drive back to Mumbai than stay in an institutional quarantine but that's a big waste of time and money. So altogether, let me hope for the best in July/August.

EDIT - Very sorry, I just read the notification again. It says - "If anyone is coming by road, he/she should provide the address proof of person in Karnataka he/she intends to meet "

I think I will try my luck to visit my home in Belgaum, fingers crossed.

[thecarguy]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

The funny part as things stand today- it will be just like earlier days in some months with just the addition of masks and sanitisers. So, what exactly the lockdown achieved ?? A lockdown would have been effective if it happened at the correct time and enforced in a certain way. I was laughing reading a report yesterday in the newspapers that the hotels, restaurants and malls were being given a period of seven days to prepare for the re-opening when the authorities gave four hours to the entire country before shutting it down !

This thread will remain as a proof of the monumental blunder that we witnessed and a cursory glance over it will show the skewed ratio of people having voted for the lockdown and yet having a thread where rationality and pragmatism took over by logical reasoning.

The lockdown by the govt. on a 4 hour notice was a good idea. Given more time like in Italy, it would have lead to mass migration and the spread of the virus to all parts of the country.
While it's regrettable that the migrants were not given shelter in place or food by the government, it has bought us much required time to understand the virus, the treatments that are effective against it, and build our medical infrastructure for the task. We have also established states which have a higher infection and lower infection rates

While the lockdown could have been implemented sooner and the flights from affected countries banned sooner, hindsight is always 20/20. To assume that a thread by people, most of whom are neither epidemiologists or doctors discussing the decision and coming up with better solutions is laughable and arrogant.

The only way the effectiveness of this decision can be measured by the death toll. It could have been higher than the American toll of around 105k easily. We are a far cry from that. Now that new medication is being certified to fight COVID, it will certainly help us reduce the death toll.

[JojyKerala]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Had the migrant persons been allowed to go home at the beginning of the epidemic, when the disease spread was very low, the current situation could have been avoided,” three medical professional associations highlighted

Very true.

A little bit of planning and care for the migrants when we had minimal cases would have helped. Instead of the sudden lockdown announcement at 8 pm, the government could have set aside a window to help migrants and the poor move to their hometowns. They should have arranged trains and buses for this purpose. Since some state governments already had "mini-lockdowns", the migrants were already out of jobs. This wasn't taken into account before the 1st lockdown was enforced.

Over the last 2 months, the government (including state governments) had multiple opportunities to help migrants walking through the roads but nothing was done.

I understand that the government probably couldn't predict this but what were the well-paid advisors and bureaucrats doing? For this, check any late-April news articles on the "highly-credible" Niti Aayog predictions:

From May 3, India would hit its peak in adding daily new cases at a little above 1,500 and this would drop to 1,000 cases by May 12, and down to zero by May 16. In all, this would mean that no more than 35,000 cases would be added between Saturday and the first fortnight of May.

Here is one of many links from back then (it also has the zero cases graph that is now being disowned by Niti Aayog):

Link

Luckily for India, the deaths have been comparatively low. Hope we come out of this mess soon, especially since everything seems to be getting back to normal from today.

[ZenMaster]

Mistakes and blunders were bound to happen since this is an unprecedented global disaster. There would have been a catastrophe one way or the other in India. The entire govt. Initiative fell on it face basically because the Indian government (also other countries) doesn't really know how to take care of the health of its population in an emergency and didn't invest in its health infrastructure while it could.(both the current govt. and previous central and state govts.)

Unless we were able to build/procure 1000s of hospitals with lakhs of beds and equipment and millions and millions of test kits, either before lockdown or during lockdown, this was always bound to go out of control where social distance is a luxury and sharing resources/facilities is the norm for 99% of the population except a few crorepatis.

This disaster put India's health and it's Economy in the ICU because of its preexisting conditions.

The government locked down the entire country basically because it panicked and didn't know what to do with millions of sick people not because they had any plan.

How can you "eliminate" such a disease without weeding out the cause from the root the cause or without any cure. A lockdown can never cure a disease in our country.

The Indian economy was already tripping on the edge of a canyon and this Pandmic has pushed it off the cliff.

The Economy is on Life Support, and its various organs are failing and the Govt. decided all it needed was a Placebo and a motivational speech and it would cure itself. (Anybody feeling the effect of the 20lakh crore relief medicine yet?)

Unfortunately I'm no expert, I'm just a young graduate on a Contract job dreaming of a good future. At this point I have put everything into God's merciful hands, believing that this too shall pass and better times are yet to come.

[BoneCollector]

This Coronavirus scenario is unprecedented in history of mankind. No one was or is aware of what hit us. And we are still kind of experimenting with all this. Like I posted here (The Coronavirus Thread), its an unknown enemy. In hindsight, we may see many things that could have been well managed or those which were a failure. I agree with the FACT that our country spends miniscule amount on healthcare and no one bothered to fix it in decades altogether. And that mess cannot be fixed in 2 months.

With the lockdown relaxation given, the people in my city are on the road, so much so that there are various areas where traffic jam and gridlock has been reported. I did not see anyone scared enough! Only around 20% of people are using masks. Others are not bothered. I feel this would be the situation in many cities. I really fail to understand how people behave in our country. Lockdown is not the solution but we should follow the practice of physical distancing as well as try to prevent the spread. Government will not be able to do anything if we fail on our part.









My request to everyone is, stay safe with proper hand and face hygiene. DO NOT TOUCH your face without washing your hands with soap. One must use face mask. It'll help inadvertent inhalation of the virus plus also prevent one from touching nose and mouth. Do your bit for your own and family's safety. Hopefully we shall overcome this too.

[Col Mehta]

Originally Posted by thecarguy

To assume that a thread by people, most of whom are neither epidemiologists or doctors discussing the decision and coming up with better solutions is laughable and arrogant.

While I understand you might have strong views on the discussed topic, it is equally shocking to see someone openly disrespecting people with different opinions on the topic, particularly on this esteemed forum. You don't want to agree with others, thats fine. But don't judge them either. And let's maintain the decorum of this forum by being respectful and open to different opinions.

If you can't accept different opinions then stop participating in public debates. Your comment is very unreasonable and full of sarcasm which other members didn't deserve. I, while don't necessarily agree with your views, won't judge you, or call you arrogant or throw sarcasm on your face for having different opinion.

Take it easy, my dear. Life is too short for all this .

Be safe.

[thecarguy]

Originally Posted by Col Mehta

While I understand you might have strong views on the discussed topic, it is equally shocking to see someone openly disrespecting people with different opinions on the topic, particularly on this esteemed forum. You don't want to agree with others, thats fine. But don't judge them either. And let's maintain the decorum of this forum by being respectful and open to different opinions.

If you can't accept different opinions then stop participating in public debates. Your comment is very unreasonable and full of sarcasm which other members didn't deserve. I, while don't necessarily agree with your views, won't judge you, or call you arrogant or throw sarcasm on your face for having different opinion.

Take it easy, my dear. Life is too short for all this .

Be safe.

I am sorry that my comment is phrased sarcastically, but it is still not right to openly call experts (Doctors/staff, scientists, epidemiologists) decisions as directionless, clueless, and damaging. You have to appreciate what they have done to be in the position they are.

It irks me that people here would openly criticize the researchers and scientists at ICMR or other institutions of India. Corruption should be called out for what it is, but these researchers and scientists have nothing to gain from proposing a lockdown or its extension.

To call a strategy that was developed with opinions and viewpoints of non-healthcare professionals better than one made by doctors who have dedicated at least half of their lives to the subject made with concrete research and data at their disposal is also rude.

My apologies to ABHI_1512 and other members on this forum if you found my comment disrespectful.

[AirbusCapt]

I understand the lockdown was to ensure we have adequate beds, ventilators and medical equipment plus personnel. Post that, a lockdown is useless and covid will keep increasing until everyone has it or a vaccine is found.
If we look at the number of deaths it's close to 2% which is quite low when compared with the rest of the world. Over 80% of our cases are asymptomatic and over 95% recover without hospitalization. Our recovery rate is almost touching 50%. Hence the statistics are good. It's time to open up the country and stop panicking on number of cases. Our cases are rising because testing is rising.

[naveen.raju]

Originally Posted by BoneCollector

With the lockdown relaxation given, the people in my city are on the road, so much so that there are various areas where traffic jam and gridlock has been reported. I did not see anyone scared enough! Only around 20% of people are using masks. Others are not bothered. I feel this would be the situation in many cities. I really fail to understand how people behave in our country. Lockdown is not the solution but we should follow the practice of physical distancing as well as try to prevent the spread. Government will not be able to do anything if we fail on our part.

That's the same thing am observing here as well. I started going to office from April last week and it was pretty well managed but now things are totally different. Here are some that I noticed:

1) Roads are back to normal now - all crowded and my daily commute is back to the old days ie stuck in traffic. Only the software park is sort of deserted.
2) Public transport service is increasing daily and today I saw a bus with no social distancing norms in place (all seats were occupied).
3) I had visited couple of popular eat outs this weekend to pick up a parcel. Some were really crowded.
4) Cops are pretty strict in enforcing the night curfew. I was stopped but as I was coming back from office, I was let go. Cops are pretty much active here and should appreciate their support and effort.
5) Almost all still wears a mask here but social distancing is sort of non existent.

Cases here were on a decline and almost reached zero but now as they have allowed people from other states/countries to return to Kerala, it's been a steady 50+ cases daily for the past 4-5 days. Now that all establishments are set to reopen next week, god knows how the situation will be.