[rohan_iitr]

Originally Posted by Samurai

This time I came across another candidate with insane score in mathematics in every semester. Since she was an electronics and communications engineering graduate, I had to ask...

My personal experience is that there is absolutely no relationship between knowledge of a subject and the marks scored. If at all there is a relation, I would say that marks are inversely proportional to knowledge (in our current education system).

Students who get good marks are the ones who customise their exam preparation for the questions commonly asked in the papers, whereas a student who believes in acquiring knowledge of a subject may get only average marks in the tests.

Good students don't necessarily make good engineers. Class toppers / high scorers are not necessarily more employable than the average scorer.

A candidate should not be recruited based on what he learnt or did not learn in their college. They should be recuited based on their mental ability and desire to learn new things. That is all that matters.

Rohan

[srishiva]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/08/news...ion/index.html

Some interesting observations about population, need and skills in India. There is a lot of promise if right things can be done.

[Samurai]

In industry after industry, the same story is repeated. A recent survey by Aspiring Minds, which tracks workforce preparedness, found that more than 80% of India's engineering graduates in 2015 were "unemployable."

It has only gotten worse since the start of this thread in 2009. I guess the above number is for all engineering graduates.

But I have started fearing a reversal in the trend. When I was growing up in 70-80s, we were told that overpopulation is our biggest problem. However, that same overpopulation helped us became the #1 offshore service provider in the world from 90s onwards. We are still thriving on it, whether the people are skilled or not.

However, the next revolution has started. CPUs have became powerful enough to replace humans in most mundane/routine jobs. Even cars and trucks are going driverless in many countries. It is only a matter of 2-3 years before we are going to face the heat from this.

When this happens, overpopulation of India will turn from asset to liability again. If we are talking about training our people, we shouldn't be talking in the traditional sense. We have to train the people to live in an increasing mechanised world, where jobs if at all exist will be very different than now.

[srishiva]

Will people in India accept the elimination of mundane/routine jobs? We still have majority of people working in menial jobs like lift operators, maids, gardeners, vegetable vendors in carts etc.
We haven't accepted mechanization of most jobs (in household chores, construction, farming etc). As long as we can absorb such mundane skills for the cheap price that we get, it will go on.

Once they become skilled and aspire for something better with better pay, we have nothing on offer for such people.

[poloman]

This is already happening in places like Kerala. A coconut plucker can earn anything like 50K per month or Rs 100 per tree. A full time maid earns upwards of 25K. Construction laborer 1000 per day, farm laborer 750rs per day. On the contrary the starting salary of an engineering graduate will be hardly 10-15K, a teacher 20K, a nurse 10K.

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by Samurai

When I was growing up in 70-80s, we were told that overpopulation is our biggest problem. However, that same overpopulation helped us became the #1 offshore service provider in the world from 90s onwards. We are still thriving on it, whether the people are skilled or not.

On an altered note:
"Overpopulation" is the reason why Most western companies are flocking to China and India: DEMAND. No population = no demand for anything = no production of anything (yes even software).

The overpopulation bugle was a red herring by the then Govt(s) to hide their ineptness and corruption and general mismanagement of everything in the country.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by alpha1

On an altered note:
"Overpopulation" is the reason why Most western companies are flocking to China and India: DEMAND. No population = no demand for anything = no production of anything (yes even software).

Which makes sense when the unemployment is low. However, as more and more jobs are taken up by machines, unemployment will increase. Demand for consumer items will decrease. I am already seeing some of it, middle aged professionals not able to find jobs after enjoying top salaries for 10-15 years. Whatever the next big thing is, we are not prepared for it.

[ampere]

Originally Posted by Samurai

I am already seeing some of it, middle aged professionals not able to find jobs after enjoying top salaries for 10-15 years. Whatever the next big thing is, we are not prepared for it.

Very true.

The above quoted part I think is because of our own demons in our country. Hierarchy is so deeply ingrained in us, that one fails to go back to the ground level when needed. And more importantly one fears to go back, because in most cases, one may have lost touch with ground reality. The moment that happens, one's value proposition as an employee for a company no more exists. So in effect a liability to the company.

The value of our experience, should not just be to rise to the next level, but to rise to the next level with one's feet steady on the ground. That is where the value of experience comes up. One can then be able to look across levels and judge things on their actual value.

[Lalvaz]

I think you're confusing two issues here.

Originally Posted by Samurai

However, as more and more jobs are taken up by machines, unemployment will increase. Demand for consumer items will decrease.

Firstly, could you share some examples of jobs being taken up by machines? Also, how does this mechanization adversely impact the demand for consumer items?

I am already seeing some of it, middle aged professionals not able to find jobs after enjoying top salaries for 10-15 years.

Now, are you saying that these Middle aged professionals are unable to find jobs due to mechanization?

Whatever the next big thing is, we are not prepared for it.

I think you are generalizing things. How do you know whether people are prepared for the next big thing, without even knowing what it is. Perhaps, the middle aged professionals have already invested some of their hard earned top salaries and are resilient from any layoffs. Perhaps they think the next big thing is real estate and they've built up their real estate portfolio.

Please do not get me wrong, but I think as people age, the opportunities available to them reduce, except in some professions where experience is greatly valued, like a cardiac surgeon. In most other professions, people prefer young blood, fresh thinking, hard working youngsters, and also, as your salary rises with age and experience, the number of opportunities naturally reduce, since the job market is really like a pyramid. How many CEO level openings are there v/s entry level openings?

I also think that we should not be unduly paranoid about change, but should work at being better prepared at dealing with any risks arising out of change. That change could be mechanization or otherwise.

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Which makes sense when the unemployment is low. However, as more and more jobs are taken up by machines, unemployment will increase. Demand for consumer items will decrease. I am already seeing some of it, middle aged professionals not able to find jobs after enjoying top salaries for 10-15 years. Whatever the next big thing is, we are not prepared for it.

Yes, you are right; so perhaps my better question would be: what do these guys have that other people find valuable and thus would pay for it (maybe less than what they were getting in their erstwhile roles in IT).
I am sure there would be something. If not immediately now, then in future.

And in similar vein, the undergrad or the grad: Perhaps their skills are more suited to some other industry where technical expertise (which they don't have) is not required? And neither can machines replace humans in that domain ...

Of course only time will tell what lies in future.

[srishiva]

I think the middle aged IT guy's case is India specific mostly. We promote people and make sure they stop learning very early. They are also not supposed to do tasks like programming etc and are also not supposed to keep earning almost the same amount (adjustment over inflation and company's growth should be fine which is what happens elsewhere)

Even in product development companies here in India, people's age is not a big concern and their specialized skills (honed through continuous hands on) are required for any new developments/products. Its the services industry that is to be blamed.

[ashokrajagopal]

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

I think you're confusing two issues here.

Firstly, could you share some examples of jobs being taken up by machines? Also, how does this mechanization adversely impact the demand for consumer items?
========

I also think that we should not be unduly paranoid about change, but should work at being better prepared at dealing with any risks arising out of change. That change could be mechanization or otherwise.

What does the current wealth of middle aged professionals to get them going in real estate got to do with their technical skill ?
And how hard is it to digest the fact that mechanization is taking up jobs. There are many jobs dead in the last 20 years with the advent of technology.
For instance, a good percentage of people now do not need a tax man to do their taxes in India. Compare this to 10 years back.
Travel agencies, retail stores, stock broking firms, the list is long.

If you take IT for instance look at how the Cloud has changed the industry. If 100 companies had 100 Admins to manage their servers, now they take up a cloud subscription on SaaS and they dont need a skilled Admin.
The cloud provider did not provide the infrastructure by hiring an army of Skilled Admins either. They just invested in technology and developed an automated system with about 20 people.
A lot of jobs in the service industry has died. Many others would die soon.

20 years back everybody who logged into a network needed assistance, voice or otherwise. The time has evolved and the newer technologies are far more intuitive that you do not need assistance that much. ie. people who are in the business of providing assistance has to find other means. This is where call centre business is right now.

No point in saying there is no need to be paranoid, just prepare. The whole idea of this discussion is that we dont have the "tech" skills for next level. At least not yet.

Also, as one ages the opportunities diminish and the job market is like a pyramid and all that accepted, there is another aspect here.

As you age, the OPPORTUNITIES that diminish as if by a rule are opportunities to GROW.
The world is changing to a style where unskilled people cant STAY, at that same level even.

[ampere]

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

Firstly, could you share some examples of jobs being taken up by machines? Also, how does this mechanization adversely impact the demand for consumer items?

I think he meant automation. Jobs which may not require manual intervention. Example no more bank tellers, but 100% ATMs for example. No more human interface requirements at banks? Cloud based services are another example.

Now, are you saying that these Middle aged professionals are unable to find jobs due to mechanization?

This is not because of automation. But more because, as people grow old, their barrier to learning increases. And its also heightened by the presence, of hierarchy heavy organizational structure around us. With growth our probability of losing touch with ground reality increase manifold.

I think you are generalizing things. How do you know whether people are prepared for the next big thing, without even knowing what it is. Perhaps, the middle aged professionals have already invested some of their hard earned top salaries and are resilient from any layoffs. Perhaps they think the next big thing is real estate and they've built up their real estate portfolio.

Perfectly valid. As long as folks know how to manage on their own by moving along multiple streams, its very good. But many dont as well. @Samurai's comment is valid for people continuing to stay as working people.

Please do not get me wrong, but I think as people age, the opportunities available to them reduce, except in some professions where experience is greatly valued, like a cardiac surgeon.

I disagree. I think it totally depends on what value as an experienced person one brings to the organization. If one does not, then that experience may not count. For, a 10 year experience of doing the same work, yes an organization may prefer a young blood with lesser pay. The only positive that 10 year experience may bring would be an added cover of reliability. But the real experience and value to me would be the vision of going forward that one brings to the organization.

In most other professions, people prefer young blood, fresh thinking, hard working youngsters, and also, as your salary rises with age and experience, the number of opportunities naturally reduce, since the job market is really like a pyramid. How many CEO level openings are there v/s entry level openings?

Again I disagree. My logic being same as I explained earlier. Of course, there may not much room at the top. But to reach to the next level, one would need much more than an experience doing the same job over time.

I also think that we should not be unduly paranoid about change, but should work at being better prepared at dealing with any risks arising out of change. That change could be mechanization or otherwise.

+1. This is why I was stating the above points about losing touch with ground reality. Another aspect, which we tend to carry a lot is baggage. If we can shed that out of our constitution, then coupled with we being on ground, the fear of change wont exist. (Simply because, at all ages we will never be afraid about starting from scratch).

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

I think you're confusing two issues here.

Why do you assume that?

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

Firstly, could you share some examples of jobs being taken up by machines? Also, how does this mechanization adversely impact the demand for consumer items?

While I was busy, many have answered this question. Looks like you have not seen how many jobs have been killed by cloud and SaaS. I also provide SaaS over the cloud, so I am acutely aware of what is happening.

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

Perhaps, the middle aged professionals have already invested some of their hard earned top salaries and are resilient from any layoffs. Perhaps they think the next big thing is real estate and they've built up their real estate portfolio.

What does even mean?

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

Please do not get me wrong, but I think as people age, the opportunities available to them reduce, except in some professions where experience is greatly valued, like a cardiac surgeon. In most other professions, people prefer young blood, fresh thinking, hard working youngsters, and also, as your salary rises with age and experience, the number of opportunities naturally reduce, since the job market is really like a pyramid. How many CEO level openings are there v/s entry level openings?

You are going completely tangential to the general idea of this thread. My thoughts are perfectly aligned to the theme of this thread, which is about preparing people for future jobs.

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

I also think that we should not be unduly paranoid about change, but should work at being better prepared at dealing with any risks arising out of change. That change could be mechanization or otherwise.

Paranoia because we are not prepared, not only that, we walking in the opposite direction and won't be able to catch the next wave if this continues.

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

How do you know whether people are prepared for the next big thing, without even knowing what it is.

Why do you assume I have no clue about it?

The last 20+ years of IT industry demanded very little from the typical IT person in the form of creativity and analytical skills. The term "code coolie" was coined because of this. However, SaaS and cloud are systematically wiping these jobs away. Now there are offices with just a bunch of laptops connected to a broadband router over wifi using SaaS. Now companies don't go for custom application software, they just rent it from SaaS providers. Also, they don't need a system admin or network admin on hand. All the infra servers or services like mail and other collaboration software is on the cloud. So these support jobs have gone too. All the big cloud setups are in developed countries where power/broadband connectivity is much better.

Any job that doesn't require complex decision making are being lost to the CPUs on the cloud. Code coolies or drones are becoming a thing of the past. Speech recognition packages are replacing medical transcription.

So what kind of jobs will remain? The kind that requires creativity, domain knowledge, analytic skills, etc. I am aware of two upcoming waves by association...

Solar energy is creating a whole new industry, which requires all kind of gadgets and software for control and management. Right now it is said that only 1% of the electrical engineers in India understand electricity. So who is going to address this need?

Data Analystics is another highly undermanned area. Every industry is generating whole lot of data. But we have very few statisticians who can slice and dice this data and turn it into useful information. This requires really smart statisticians. But how many smart students take statistics as their primary occupation?

Similarly, there could be many waves which might end up as the next big thing. But our colleges are still churning out drones without any conceptual understanding of the subject matter they studied.

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

Now, are you saying that these Middle aged professionals are unable to find jobs due to mechanization?

Middle aged professionals generally manage people, and there are not enough people to manage because those jobs have gone into the cloud. In addition, these middle aged professionals are the relics of the IT revolution that didn't need any hard skill. So they barely learned anything that could be useful in the future.

There is also this mass delusion that is the result of this low skill IT revolution that lasted 20+ years. People expect pay according to their years of experience, rather than the value they bring to the organization. I don't even understand where this is coming from. I often get emails from experienced IT folks saying "I make so much now, expect 20% hike if you hire me". Meanwhile I don't see much in their resume even to offer half that amount. It prompted me to write this article last year.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Data Analystics is another highly undermanned area. Every industry is generating whole lot of data. But we have very few statisticians who can slice and dice this data and turn it into useful information. This requires really smart statisticians. But how many smart students take statistics as their primary occupation?.......

I was about to opine on the other side of this same coin. Lots of companies used to have data jockeys under the guise of Analytics groups/departments, where the majority of them were doing nothing but manual data collection/collation/presentation for lack of a centralized solution. Most of them are on their way to redundancy, if not already there given the leaps (semi) automated Data Analytics has made over the past decade or so.

I agree we still need competent statisticians to work with the data being produced, but then how many people in IT are qualified on that domain? The day of the glorified 'excel enthusiast' passing off as a data analyst is nearing extinction, and one would be amazed just how many middle-management level people fall in that bucket.