[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

Could you please provide a reference/corroboration for the above claim? Has the figure been arrived at in a peer reviewed study or is it based on anecdotal evidence?

https://science.thewire.in/health/wh...indian-states/

[mn2363]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

..Anecdotally, there do seem to be plenty of these breakthroughs (breaksthrough?). Here's one...

Friend's inlaws, one single dose, one double dose, both caught it. Double-doser had a very mild illness; single doser required some hospital treatment but was ok. Which is sort-of encouraging. According to current vaccine-protection expectations...

That's quite in line with the single/double dose efficacy data currently available from different countries.

The breakthrough cases (all with 2x shots i.e.) I personally know of are linked to social gatherings and poor precautions. Other than that it's mostly healthcare professionals on covid duty. All of them recovered but a very small number amongst the doctors did have to go through hospitalisation/ICU/ intubation. This is for Covishield/Oxford-AZ, Pfizer and Moderna across 4 countries.

Originally Posted by catkins

Any possibility of
6. Fake vaccine?

At least for vaccination centres using/covered under the real-time online cowin infrastructure this is not really possible. They have a pretty robust and traceable logistics set-up, but outliers can always exist.

A better and more facts based approach would be to look at:
a) the percentage of fully vaccinated people*, ideally 2-4 weeks after the second dose. This percentage is very low here (10% at most),
b) details of the vaccine used - Covaxin or Covishield or Sputnik, and
c) efficacy data for the said vaccine.

For Covishield/Oxford-AZ real-world efficacy data is available via NHS-UK and Health Canada, for Covaxin and Sputnik data from P3 trials is available. Protection against symptomatic infection (for delta variant) after 2 doses is around 66%. Protection against hospitalisation, need for oxygen, ICU etc is in high 80s. So there always would be 4/10 breakthrough cases for symptomatic infection and 1/10 for hospitalisation. That's why epidemiologists and public health experts are still advocating precautionary behavior (masking etc.).

*post infection naturally acquired immunity is supposed to work too and there's some data from small scale studies to back that up. That's why serological surveys get such a wide coverage - but - did that work for the winter-20 serological data and the spring-21 surge?

[Latheesh]

Originally Posted by Gansan

How severe is their disease?

*One heart patient - senior citizen, she had breathing difficulty and no hospitalization required. Her one contact is also +ve.
*20 year old boy - he fainted and family panicked and cried, 4 neighbors went to check, and all of them got infected except one.
* 80 year old lady - She had cold and no other symptoms. Went to hospital and doctor did mandatory covid test and result was +ve. 2 other adults and 2 children atvher home had cold and all are +ve.

All 15 are under home quarantine.

[how_you_doing]

Originally Posted by splitsecond

https://science.thewire.in/health/wh...indian-states/

I read the full article and despite some reasonable points, it reads like a PR exercise for Kerala by the Wire which is kind of expected considering their political leaning.

The article has too many assumptions to come to this conclusion which probably was written first and then the rest of the article around it - Kerala has not failed in containing the pandemic. If anything, the state has done a reasonably good job of managing it.

Author bio - Rijo M. John is a health economist and an adjunct professor at the Rajagiri College of Social Sciences, Kochi.

Author is "Health Economist" from "Social science college".

[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by how_you_doing

I read the full article and despite some reasonable points, it reads like a PR exercise for Kerala by the Wire which is kind of expected considering their political leaning.

The article has too many assumptions to come to this conclusion which probably was written first and then the rest of the article around it - Kerala has not failed in containing the pandemic. If anything, the state has done a reasonably good job of managing it.



Author is "Health Economist" from "Social science college".

I didn't came to this conclusion not after reading the above article, its already known matter for people. I just gave some random link that i googled today when the other member asked.

[am1m]

"Anecdotes about someone vaccinated getting infected by COVID, and feeling poorly for a couple of days should be presented as 'good news' stories, and a triumph of science, not as portents of the Apocalypse."

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/...27338533699587

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by am1m

"Anecdotes about someone vaccinated getting infected by COVID, and feeling poorly for a couple of days should be presented as 'good news' stories... ... ...

Couldn't agree more. Nicely put!

Yes, in a perfect world, we'd be completely protected, Maybe we'll get that in future rounds of vaccine research. In the mean time, what we have now is vastly better than nothing.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by how_you_doing

I read the full article and despite some reasonable points, it reads like a PR exercise for Kerala by the Wire which is kind of expected considering their political leaning.

The gist of the article is that cases in kerala is still high because compared to the rest of the country a larger percentage of the population has never got covid yet and still are vulnerable.

I would like to see you contest that theory and present your point of view rather than accusing the portal of political bias and questioning the authors antecedents.

[PhantomLord]

Works when parked ?




Israel, Turkey (UK, US, India will follow)etc count 2 dose vaccinated as unvaccinated, Welcome to the Chicken



See https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/statu...97281067700226

• How long will we be supporting something that has failed in all things claimed, what next "with vaccine death will be less painful" ?
• Kerala has huge number of breakthrough cases, is it time to be vocal about it or are we hoping manufacturer/government realise it themselves ?
• Breakthrough means virus is replicating in that person(beyond vaccine), whether person gets critical or not depends on natural immune system & therapeutics.
• If we have learnt something in last 1.5 years, it is no one can control coronaviruses, there is no point fighting over news site/state/leader etc.
• Best is to learn from Israel data and have alternate plan when percentage fully vaccinated is still very low.
• May be instead of waiting for next booster, start working on your health and give a serious thought on whether you want your kids to ride landing gear(Kabul) like you did.

"better than nothing"

• Depends on which category you fall in severity chart, E.g Only age 70+ should see gain, younger people are more at risk from vaccine, more so with boosters.
• Most of vaccine validity documents(passport/pass) state validity as 3 months, after these started circulating, documents were edited and old copy deleted (even from wayback machine).

What happened to therapeutics ? Did it Work ?



See https://www.jpost.com/health-science...er-1day-675612

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

The gist of the article is that cases in kerala is still high because compared to the rest of the country a larger percentage of the population has never got covid yet and still are vulnerable.

I would like to see you contest that theory and present your point of view rather than accusing the portal of political bias and questioning the authors antecedents.

I think the issue is this. Nothing to do with politics, just stating facts and the reality:

1. As discussed, Kerala seems to be having a never ending restriction. And this worked/works because it's mainly a consuming state with very few industries. It probably doesn't matter too much whether there is a continuous restriction or not, other than general unhappiness that things are closed. Kerala did not really peak, as we all know.

Whereas other states had a peak, took it on the chin, and got done with it, this wave atleast. They really had no choice - they had to open up, otherwise the whole economy would come to a grinding halt, and there could be labour unrest. Kerala had the luxury of not worrying too much about this, given the predominant remittance model.

2. The "Kerala model" was praised to the moon when it's cases were low. There were articles on why Kerala should serve as a role model to other stats. And when things started to get bad, and remained bad, everybody suddenly went quiet. Why? Why not have a dispassionate analysis of the way it was handled positively/negatively across all states? That would serve as a huge knowledge bank for the future.

3. Kerala supposedly has the best public healthcare, and it was widely expected to do much better in terms of handling the hospitalization, and expectations of relaxation of restrictions much sooner. But that didn't happen. Yes, deaths remained low - that's because of the luxury of restrictions.

So while the author might be right on the numbers in Kerala, he has been silent on the cost in achieving this, as well as the shortcomings of the state that helped in achieving this. Nothing wrong - but it would have been good to state some of these too.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

I think the issue is this. Nothing to do with politics, just stating facts and the reality:

1. As discussed, Kerala seems to be having a never ending restriction. And this worked/works because it's mainly a consuming state with very few industries. It probably doesn't matter too much whether there is a continuous restriction or not, other than general unhappiness that things are closed. Kerala did not really peak, as we all know.

Whereas other states had a peak, took it on the chin, and got done with it, this wave atleast. They really had no choice - they had to open up, otherwise the whole economy would come to a grinding halt, and there could be labour unrest. Kerala had the luxury of not worrying too much about this, given the predominant remittance model.

2. The "Kerala model" was praised to the moon when it's cases were low. There were articles on why Kerala should serve as a role model to other stats. And when things started to get bad, and remained bad, everybody suddenly went quiet. Why? Why not have a dispassionate analysis of the way it was handled positively/negatively across all states? That would serve as a huge knowledge bank for the future.

3. Kerala supposedly has the best public healthcare, and it was widely expected to do much better in terms of handling the hospitalization, and expectations of relaxation of restrictions much sooner. But that didn't happen. Yes, deaths remained low - that's because of the luxury of restrictions.

So while the author might be right on the numbers in Kerala, he has been silent on the cost in achieving this, as well as the shortcomings of the state that helped in achieving this. Nothing wrong - but it would have been good to state some of these too.

The article as the title suggests explains why cases in Kerala are higher than the rest of the country. If you choose to see more than that, then it is not the author's problem, right?

Kerala has a better health infrastructure hence when the rest of the country "peaked" the state kept its cases low. If the rest of the country peaked, it was not by choice, and am sure there was no plan to peak early and "kill off a few thousands" so that the pandemic will be over sooner.

The state was able to keep deaths to a minimum not because of the lockdowns, but because there was never a dearth of life saving equipment (oxygen, ventilators, ICU beds etc) because cases never peaked. Even now when cases are still high, there is enough supply of ICU beds and ventilators - cos they still haven't peaked.

I think we all worked towards "flattening the curve", some states succeeded, some didn't. Right?

Kerala had the luxury of keeping it locked down better than the rest of the country because of the lack of industries, yes that is true. But when cases were low in Kerala not just the state, the entire country was in lockdown, right?

I don't know if something called a "Kerala model" exists (I think it is just a combination of better health infrastructure and healthcare workers) but if there is one, then the fact that cases are high now is because of the "Kerala model" and not despite that.

[drivingmelody]

The time gap between two covishield doses is getting reduced. Looks like manufacturing has picked up.

[deathwalkr]

Originally Posted by drivingmelody

The time gap between two covishield doses is getting reduced. Looks like manufacturing has picked up.

Yes? cowin still shows 84 days gap for me. Any links?

[drivingmelody]

The source of this information was the media reports that surfaced yesterday
https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/ind...vaccine-729283
https://www.news18.com/news/india/co...s-4130156.html

Today, there is a clarification from the Government that it doesn't intend to reduce the gap between the doses
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/85655827.cms

[mukeshgoel]

Originally Posted by drivingmelody

The time gap between two covishield doses is getting reduced. Looks like manufacturing has picked up.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/covi...ources-2519503

New Delhi: There is no plan to reduce the 84-day dose gap for Covishield, top government expert NK Arora said today