[nasa_hubble]

Originally Posted by yd_gli

- the pain/misery threshold for Indians is very high when it comes to visiting hospitals. I know a few people who over the last month had all the symptoms for covid19 but never went to the hospital or got themselves tested since the local physician didn't think they needed to. They all recovered

Happy to know they all recovered. Most people with similar symptoms will not be tested for COVID-19 as it is an imported disease so to say.

Current testing strategy as advised by ICMR as of today:
i. All symptomatic individuals who have undertaken international travel in the last 14 days.
ii. All symptomatic contacts of laboratory confirmed cases.
iii. All symptomatic health care workers.
iv. All hospitalized patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (fever AND cough and/or
shortness of breath).
v. Asymptomatic direct and high-risk contacts of a confirmed case should be tested once
between day 5 and day 14 of coming in his/her contact.

- the average Italian patient is 69 years old and even then only 47% needed hospitalization. Move the median age lower for India and the %age will drop further to ~ 30%. Majority in India will probably not need hospitalization in any case.

The percentage will drop for sure, but the absolute numbers will be a lot more in India as we are a country of 1.35 billion atleast. If the disease was as widespread as it is contemplated then 1000 positive would not have been true. We need to remember that this disease has a lag time of 4-14 days (incubation period) and the true picture will emerge during this lockdown.

-let's say the Indian government is off by a factor of 20. That makes it 20k infected. Given the size of India and the poor data reporting from private hospitals, 30% of these patients visiting hospitals will probably be a blip on the radar and nothing else.

Let us assume your projections are true then we should have seen atleast 4000 hospitalizations (20% of 20000), around 200 to 400 ICU admissions (10-20% of 20k) and 200 deaths (1% mortality). Severe cases will have ARDS and as per the testing startegy they need to be tested for COVID-19. Is that the case? Not yet. What will happen I do not know but right now this is the picture according to my understanding.

[Samurai]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WimbyL_25Nw

[lapis_lazuli]

Now with the prince and the prime minister both tested positive for the bug, the UK government says covid19 is not a high consequence disease!

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-con...-diseases-hcid

On the other hand... The state finance minister of Germany’s Hesse region has committed suicide and Schaefer’s death has been linked to the ongoing Corona virus crisis.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by nasa_hubble

I only have a question to offer you as an answer. If the government is fudging the data and you suspect our symptomatic cases to be lot higher, then why our hospitals are not flooded with sick patients having symptoms of COVID-19?

Good question. First a clarification. I did not say the Govt is fudging its figures. That is your assumption.Please read my post.

How many from the lower 70% of our population can afford to go to a hospital when they experience symptoms that seems like a bad cough & fever? What kind of medical infrastructure do you think a town such as Gorakhpur or Korba or Bally have? How many would be trying their hand with a local OPD clinic? The patients and the Doctors do not know it is Covid-19 and not Pneumonia till you test. Last I heard we have only 150,000 test kits (my data I hope is outdated). We have 0.6 hospital beds in India per 1000 persons. This average includes the big cities. When you go down to even Tier II cities we are staring at about 0.4 to 0.5/1000. There are not many hospital beds to fill.

[viscosity]

Regarding railway coaches getting converted to Covid isolation wards, it seems no other country has done that so far. I am curious what does people think about it ? Is it a brilliant idea or just a bad idea which looks good in theory but will fail in execution ?

[nasa_hubble]

Originally Posted by viscosity

Regarding railway coaches getting converted to Covid isolation wards, it seems no other country has done that so far. I am curious what does people think about it ? Is it a brilliant idea or just a bad idea which looks good in theory but will fail in execution ?

Innovative approach. We already have mobile hospitals made of rail coaches known as the Lifeline Express. Will help mobilize resources where there may be cases who need to be isolated but there is no available infrastructure. Capacity augmentation needs to be done. Every single bed counts.

[karan0009]

One of my friend owns a hotel in my hometown. He got a call from city collector office today stating that his hotel premises would be used as a hospital if required. So it's not just railways, government will also convert hotels into hospital in emergency situation.

[nandadevieast]

To those who say that we have to test everyone in the country to know the real numbers and hence its not practical...

Well, not true. If those who have flu like symptoms get tested, we can isolate them and therefore avoid the situation where they infect 200 more people before getting tested.

Test and isolate is a proven strategy (South Korea, Taiwan, China, Germany), and none of these countries locked down the entire country. They found the positives by testing symptomatic patients and isolated them. They locked down the clusters that had positive cases. So entire country doesn’t have to tested, but it shouldn’t be so limited as only testing people coming from abroad and those also need to be symptomatic.

As for Govt. fudging the data, it may well not be. But there is no reason to believe that the government is being transparent.

The government is stopping people from getting diagnosed because its controlling the testing protocols. Why? Is it buying time? Maybe. Does it want the numbers to look good? Maybe.

Look at this paradox: ICMR comes up to declare every other day that India doesn’t have community transmission, basis a sample of 34000 cases which have come from abroad You test specific people to look for whether a disease is imported or not. You don’t test these foreign returns to test for India’s community transmission.

Well they are not the only experts. WHO for example is arguably a another expert and they have pushed the case for testing vehemently.

[nickatnite]

My humble request to everyone is not to get too wound up about this covid19 pandemic. There is too much negativity and morbid thoughts everywhere especially on tv. Where do these tv people find time to do their hair and makeup so well when the rest of the country is living in a state of shock and confusion?. I follow these basic steps i came across in another forum which i'm pasting here and i hope you do too. We have only one life to live.

1.Isolate yourself from news about the virus. (Everything we need to know, we already know). Or if u want to get more info then please read from authentic sites... CDC or WHO can help you..

2.Don't look for additional information on the Internet, it would weaken your mental state.

3.Avoid sending fatalistic messages. Some people don't have the same mental strength as you (Instead of helping, you could activate pathologies such as depression).

4.Maintain discipline in the home by washing your hands, putting up a sign or alarm for everyone in the house.

5.Your positive mood will help protect your immune system, while negative thoughts have been shown to depress your immune system and make it weak against viruses.

6.Most importantly, firmly believe that this will pass and that the universe is in the hands of God. God of love and not of punishment.

Enjoy the forced vacation everyone!

[nikhn]

Originally Posted by nandadevieast

Test and isolate is a proven strategy (South Korea, Taiwan, China, Germany), and none of these countries locked down the entire country. They found the positives by testing symptomatic patients and isolated them. They locked down the clusters that had positive cases. So entire country doesn’t have to tested, but it shouldn’t be so limited as only testing people coming from abroad and those also need to be symptomatic.

We are doing the same as well. What are you trying to convey here? Source. Germany is in a lockdown as well. Also, their healthcare system is much more robust than ours.

The government is stopping people from getting diagnosed because its controlling the testing protocols. Why? Is it buying time? Maybe.

There’s a concept called flattening of the curve. It’s a way to ensure that the healthcare system of that country does not get overburdened. That’s what is being done here. Lockdown is not put up just to minimise transmissions and eradicate the disease.

Does it want the numbers to look good? Maybe.

The same could be said for China as well.

Well they are not the only experts. WHO for example is arguably a another expert and they have pushed the case for testing vehemently.

The same “expert” WHO put out a tweet stating that China found no human transmission of CoVID-19. Look at where we are now.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Has this been covered on the thread? It is important news, and it is a a thing for India to be proud of...

Coronavirus: The woman behind India's first testing kit

"Our kit gives the diagnosis in two and a half hours while the imported testing kits take six-seven hours," says virologist Minal Dakhave Bhosale, Mylab's research and development chief.

Ms Bhosale, who headed the team that designed the coronavirus testing kit called Patho Detect, said it was done "in record time" - six weeks instead of three or four months.

And the scientist was battling with her own deadline too. Last week she gave birth to a baby girl - and only began work on the programme in February, just days after leaving hospital with a pregnancy complication.

"It was an emergency, so I took this on as a challenge. I have to serve my nation," she says, adding that her team of 10 worked "very hard" to make the project a success.

In the end, she submitted the kit for evaluation by the National Institute of Virology (NIV) on 18 March, just a day before delivering her daughter.

That same evening, just an hour before she was taken to hospital ahead of her Caesarean, she submitted the proposal to the Indian FDA and the drugs control authority CDSCO for commercial approval.

[Dhiwakar92]

Given the shutdown's adverse impact on daily wage laborers, I'm torn between two worlds. One the one hand, I am doing my best to help the ones I personally know, either because I run into them in my neighborhood or because they have helped me with daily tasks. On the other hand, I do find it a blatant disregard of the law when these people build illegal houses, eventually becoming illegal shantytowns and slums in my city, affecting public utilities like electricity, water, sewage and also the city's general beauty. When officials make an effort to demolish these settlements, these people are the first in line to protest and make it difficult for those of us who play by the rules. On the one hand, yes, I'm helping them but at the same time, I wonder if this will force them to realize that their living conditions can exacerbate a pandemic should something like this reoccur in the future ?

This is a good opportunity to make some permanent positive changes, even if they may be tough, apologies if this sounds like a politically incorrect and inconsiderate rant. I certainly empathize with these folks at this moment in time but I also realized that it's these very same folks who I curse when I see slums and illegally and poorly constructed settlements all over the city.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by viscosity

Regarding railway coaches getting converted to Covid isolation wards, it seems no other country has done that so far. I am curious what does people think about it ? Is it a brilliant idea or just a bad idea which looks good in theory but will fail in execution ?

Originally Posted by nasa_hubble

Innovative approach. We already have mobile hospitals made of rail coaches known as the Lifeline Express. Will help mobilize resources where there may be cases who need to be isolated but there is no available infrastructure. Capacity augmentation needs to be done. Every single bed counts.

You are right. A few photos being shared on Facebook and whatsapp about the conversion of railway coaches to hospitals are actually of the lifeline express which have been available online for couple of years.

In another news I also saw Assam Government got a 700 bed quarantine facility ready in two days.

It is good that the various state governments have started acting and hope we will be ready if there is a community spread.

[doxinboy]

Karnataka Government has decided to increase testing in the coming days. Instead of lurking in the dark, it has decided to follow South Korean model. Ofcourse we cant upscale 10k test a day, but testing more random samples is better anyday.

There is also evidence to show that increased testing helps save life. A recent study in the US of pandemic in Seatle suggests that the rate of death has come down significantly because of rapid testing and social distancing. The New York Times writes, "While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4."

I feel, due to this initiative in Karnataka, the number of cases will go up in the coming weeks, but it is essential to identify the infected and stop them from further spreading.

[poloman]

Originally Posted by doxinboy

Karnataka Government has decided to increase testing in the coming days. Instead of lurking in the dark, it has decided to follow South Korean model. Ofcourse we cant upscale 10k test a day, but testing more random samples is better anyday.

.

How can more testing help when any way there is a complete shutdown and the entire population is confined to homes? In South Korea there was never a complete lock down I suppose. More testing will help countries with partial shutdown to focus and isolate the infected.