[Gansan]

^^ How are they going to commisssion it without aircraft? Are there enough Mig 29Ks for Vikramaditya as well as Vikrant? I thought only half the numbers were available for service at any given time.

[ads11]

Originally Posted by Gansan

^^ How are they going to commisssion it without aircraft? Are there enough Mig 29Ks for Vikramaditya as well as Vikrant? I thought only half the numbers were available for service at any given time.

I guess they could commission the ship without its fixed wing complement. IIRC HMS Queen Elizabeth was commissioned when it only had its rotary wing complement available - the F-35Bs arrived later. I don't imagine it's terribly unusual. Equally I suppose some of the Mig-29Ks from the INS Vikramaditya could be cross decked especially for the high profile commissioning period and a short while thereafter? (not sure how practical that arrangement would be though - I guess it's good for the pilots carrier qualifications but might be a logistical hurdle to do in such a short time span).

In any case - looks like training for operating the Mig-29K is moving apace because the IN has been spotted using a wireframe mock up of the jet!

Source
NOTE: Link to the original tweet that brought this to light

While amusing in the sense it's a far less fleshed out version of the usual mock up aircraft used for training deck crew for operations, it's clearly a valuable tool, especially considering the hurdles the petite elevators of the ship pose. The day we start seeing a similar mock up being tested even at the shore based test facility for either of the Super Hornet or the Rafale M would be very telling.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Gansan

^^ How are they going to commisssion it without aircraft? Are there enough Mig 29Ks for Vikramaditya as well as Vikrant? I thought only half the numbers were available for service at any given time.

Valid question. To add to what ads11 has written. We have two options - the first & most likely one is that INS Vikramaditya will very soon enter into a long refit and her MiG-29K squadron will transfer over to the new INS Vikrant. Second less likely option that a detachment of MiG-29K's (less than a squadron in size) will operate from INS Vikrant. Only the US Navy has the resources to equip the air wing of a new carrier the day she commissions. That is reality. Two carriers carrying 12 MiG-29Ks each are still a very potent force especially as both would be carrying several ASW and AEW helicopters too = sea control. The carrier and its air wing are two separate weapons that become 1+1=3 when married. Many a times across world navies two mated weapon systems commission a little before or after the other - SSBNs and their ICBMs being the most common example

An earlier reply to a similar question has been copied below. Hope this helps.

[Gansan]

^^ Hasn't the Vikramaditya just now come out of some refit after 18 months or so?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Gansan

^^ Hasn't the Vikramaditya just now come out of some refit after 18 months or so?

To best of my knowledge the last refit was completed in 2018. So by 2023 it will be time for a long refit.

[dragracer567]

The US house of representatives has officially passed an amendment to the CAATSA bill that provides a waiver to India. This is off course just the first step with the final step being a sign by the President. But given that the house has passed the bill, there is unlikely to be any opposition up the chain, certainly not from Joe Biden himself.

This should further bolster many offerings by US companies for many Indian defense contracts, especially to the Indian Navy, with the F/A-18 super hornet which according to Janes took off with a much higher payload than that stipulated by the Indian Navy. This along with the fact that the F/A-18 can fit in both carriers, has a lower CAPEX and OPEX cost, shares commonality with P8s and MH-60R and crucially will share engines with the HAL TEDBF (which means that the carriers can have a common inventory of engines where space is crucial) means that it seems to the front-runner.

Further 'on the directions of the PM's office', the contracts for the 30 MQ-9 Predator drones and the 6 additional P8is remain on hold. Neither of these contracts are necessarily cancelled but it seems that they be under review. It seems that reduced numbers of MQ-9 Predator drones might be procured with the remaining being covered by some indigenous drone. The indigenous drone in question seems to be an Indo-Israeli UAV developed jointly by Elbit and Adani (yes, that Adani!) according some reports on Twitter. .

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

The US house of representatives has officially passed an amendment to the CAATSA bill that provides a waiver to India. This is off course just the first step with the final step being a sign by the President. But given that the house has passed the bill, there is unlikely to be any opposition up the chain, certainly not from Joe Biden himself.

This should further bolster many offerings by US companies for many Indian defense contracts, especially to the Indian Navy, with the F/A-18 super hornet which according to Janes took off with a much higher payload than that stipulated by the Indian Navy. This along with the fact that the F/A-18 can fit in both carriers, has a lower CAPEX and OPEX cost, shares commonality with P8s and MH-60R and crucially will share engines with the HAL TEDBF (which means that the carriers can have a common inventory of engines where space is crucial) means that it seems to the front-runner.

Further 'on the directions of the PM's office', the contracts for the 30 MQ-9 Predator drones and the 6 additional P8is remain on hold. Neither of these contracts are necessarily cancelled but it seems that they be under review. It seems that reduced numbers of MQ-9 Predator drones might be procured with the remaining being covered by some indigenous drone. The indigenous drone in question seems to be an Indo-Israeli UAV developed jointly by Elbit and Adani (yes, that Adani!) according some reports on Twitter. .

The best protection against CAATSA and other sanctimonious US sanctions is to become the most important customer of their military-industrial complex. Then they scramble protect us & lobby (ie buy) their Senators & Congressmen! I presume there has been a lot of neat footwork by the MEA and the EAM to make this happen. I'm glad we are viewing our geo-political choices with a hard eye and not getting nostalgic or sulky about the past. The next quarter century will, IMHO, see as much geo-political power balance change as the years 1939 to 1947 did when the world order turned upside down completely. I would not be surprised if the US offers us a AUKUS style SSN deal.

[Gansan]

^^ There are already news leaks in Youtube that the Hornet took off with more payload and at a shorter distance during trials, "exceeding navy's expectations".

So we already know what is going to be chosen by the navy!

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Gansan

^^ There are already news leaks in Youtube that the Hornet took off with more payload and at a shorter distance during trials, "exceeding navy's expectations".

So we already know what is going to be chosen by the navy!

Not necessarily. Those 'leaks' are put out by friends of Boeing & not by the Indian Navy. The decision, other than on technical merits, will be determined by political factors between US & India vs France & India and what other defence, nuclear, and strategic deals this might get linked to.

[vik99]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The best protection against CAATSA and other sanctimonious US sanctions is to become the most important customer of their military-industrial complex. Then they scramble protect us & lobby (ie buy) their Senators & Congressmen!

How does equipment from France compare to that from the US when it comes to procurement and operation costs? Further, among the two, which country according to you would be better long term partner in defence?

Hope defence equipment from the US doesn’t prove to be too expensive for us.

Disclaimer: nothing ideological/political in this, just wondering who offers the most bang for the buck and reliably so, especially now that Russian equipment seems to have begun losing out when comes to new orders such as these.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by vik99

How does equipment from France compare to that from the US when it comes to procurement and operation costs? Further, among the two, which country according to you would be better long term partner in defence?

Hope defence equipment from the US doesn’t prove to be too expensive for us.

Disclaimer: nothing ideological/political in this, just wondering who offers the most bang for the buck and reliably so, especially now that Russian equipment seems to have begun losing out when comes to new orders such as these.

Very relevant question especially when we are spending big $ on buying from abroad but that is in itself a reflection of the failure of our policies on so many fronts. Between comparable French and US equipment it is six of one and half a dozen of the other. Both are equally good and built to last - most of the time. There have been the occasional failures like the laser guidance packs we bought from the US 20 years back. Both countries put a significant volume of quality planning and R&D into what they build. American equipment has the advantage of being battle proven ironically thanks to the many unholy wars they've fought since 2001. So a typical US weapon has been through a rich process of incremental improvements based on feedback from the field.

In the case in point here - Rafale vs Hornet - it is a tie IMHO. I could be wrong. Given a choice I'd go for the Rafale as from a training & logistics point of view it makes more sense, also from a diversification standpoint. Plus Rafale is a later product. But it is a tie.

For the long term we should continue to cultivate both France and USA and of course Israel & Russia.

US equipment is not more expensive apples to apples. But our relation with USA is not time tested. They are still trigger happy on sanctions. Though to their credit they are working overtime to woo us. But 60 years of mistrust can't be wished away. France on the other hand has a 70 year track record of always honouring its contracts to us in letter and spirit. Where Russia ends up with its first line of weapons is to be seen over the next 10 to 15 years. They could like Britain in the 1960s and 1970s diminish as a weapons supplier or they could make military exports a cornerstone of their economy. I believe the latter will happen and unless the capitulate into the Chinese camp and deteriorate into a Chinese satellite Russia , I believe, should remain a key military supply partner for India. It is an old friendship of complete trust (albeit with lousy customer orientation on their part) that has a unique value all of its own.

The above are just my thoughts and by no means the last word on this subject. Would love to hear expert comments from others.

[.sushilkumar]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

US equipment is not more expensive apples to apples. But our relation with USA is not time tested. They are still trigger happy on sanctions.

Rightly put Narayan sir. In a wider geo political scenario where only interests matter, having good relationship is a bonus. Certainly US in not someone that can be trusted.

Every US military equipment comes with a End user agreement. Not many will know but F-16 to Pakistan were supplied for Anti terrorist operations and cannot be used in war or against any country. That's why there were concerns raised when they used them against us post Balakot.

Source - https://www.usnews.com/news/world-re...document-shows

The Pakistani armed forces possess 76 American-supplied F-16s – by far the most potent fighter jet in its military arsenal. Pakistan first began receiving the plane in 1982 and maintains them under strict rules imposed by the State Department, the Department of Defense and Congress. Among the rules are that Islamabad may only house the fighters and the corresponding American missiles on two specific air force bases at Mushaf and Shahbaz and that it only uses them for counter-terror operations, not against foreign countries.

They are wooing at the moment because Boeing need money to sustain itself & that too badly for obvious reasons. All their project are running in deep red and commercial planes division woes are well known.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

France on the other hand has a 70 year track record of always honouring its contracts to us in letter and spirit. .

Russians & French both have delivered to us on demand each time from Viking engine till Rafael. it will be hara-kiri IMO if GOI choose to go for F/A-18 .

[ads11]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Very relevant question..
The above are just my thoughts and by no means the last word on this subject. Would love to hear expert comments from others.

Just want to second all these points. As stated, US kit might seem expensive overall and we might view the claims attached to them as being typical American braggadocio, but in reality, a consequence of their 20 years of war has meant they're mostly all kit that's been proven in theatre. There's likely precious few platforms from other vendors where you could count on the current iteration incorporating actual user feedback from a decade of frontline use (not exercises, heat of the battle stuff). You'd probably need to look at Israeli systems there, maybe a few French and British ones from their African and ME-ern involvements respectively.

Where Russia ends up with its first line of weapons is to be seen over the next 10 to 15 years.

Think this is a key issue for most military watchers - it's a tough one to see just how the Russian military industrial complex copes with the far reaching impacts of the Ukraine aggression. They're adapting but as many observers on Twitter pointed out, their industrial complex is dependent on the West in many ways that might not be immediately apparent. For eg, a lot of their CNC equipment is comprised of off the shelf German units, and this is not even going into the higher tech more supply constrained aspects like chip supply.

Originally Posted by dragracer567

The US house of representatives has officially passed an amendment to the CAATSA bill that provides a waiver to India. This is off course just the first step with the final step being a sign by the President. But given that the house has passed the bill, there is unlikely to be any opposition up the chain, certainly not from Joe Biden himself.

A waiver from the house of reps is a good sign, especially if there's bipartisan agreement on this. Doesn't it need to pass Senate too? Just cautious of there being any roadblocks there. If both houses pass it and get it up to the White House then brilliant, just needs rubber stamping. My only other concern is if the waiver is time delimited - ie, is it only valid for a certain period (I mean it still buys vital time) or is it clause related?

This should further bolster many offerings by US companies for many Indian defense contracts, especially to the Indian Navy, with the F/A-18 super hornet which according to Janes took off with a much higher payload than that stipulated by the Indian Navy. This along with the fact that the F/A-18 can fit in both carriers, has a lower CAPEX and OPEX cost, shares commonality with P8s and MH-60R and crucially will share engines with the HAL TEDBF (which means that the carriers can have a common inventory of engines where space is crucial) means that it seems to the front-runner.

Interesting point this - the commonality with US kit from the naval side. Reducing the logistical strain in any way is a welcome move and if all the kit plays nicely that's all the better, considering the increasing impetus the IN will take on in coming decades to counter PLAN reach in the IOR. The claims about the Super Hornet lifting off with overcapacity are obviously fantastic but I'm cautious much the same way as V.Narayan - I'd like to see the final results of the fly off be announced by the IN itself, as well as hear from the French side. Easier to form a picture once we hear all aspects.

Further 'on the directions of the PM's office', the contracts for the 30 MQ-9 Predator drones and the 6 additional P8is remain on hold... The indigenous drone in question seems to be an Indo-Israeli UAV developed jointly by Elbit and Adani (yes, that Adani!) according some reports on Twitter.

Bit of a shame regarding the MQ-9s, could've been quite the force multiplier in terms of increasing IN ISR reach and capacity in the IOR coupled with the P-8I fleet. Still think getting a few would be beneficial, I've no idea on just how long it would take to field an Indo-Israeli UAV. Aren't Elbit primarily an electronic systems vendor, ie, radar and such like? Do they have any integrated platforms of their own? Also while I'm not surprised to hear Adani somehow has a defence division, just how wet behind the ears is this outfit and is it practicable to expect them to churn out a marine UAV?
Furthermore, given we're seeing the PLAN actively playing around with concepts for UAVs off their STOBAR carriers, I think India shouldn't sleep on any possibilities that arise in this space. We also know the Turks are looking to leverage similar UAV capability off their own LHD.

As for the P-8I, additional orders should be a no brainer. Last thing we want is to rue the line being shuttered down the line when we finally get off the fence about getting some more.

Originally Posted by .sushilkumar

They are wooing at the moment because Boeing need money to sustain itself & that too badly for obvious reasons. All their project are running in deep red and commercial planes division woes are well known.

Boeing sure has raging forest fires in its own house to deal with still, but I feel the Super Hornet deal is but a drop in the ocean in that regard. A large part of this push is from the entire US military industrial complex because their whole retrenchment towards the Indo-Pacific means they need as many regional bulwarks against China to help the US military as possible. It took them long enough but the median position of the US body politic is starting to see that they need to engage in some pragmatic realpolitik wrt India (which means compromising on some counts like a CAATSA waiver or not expecting an outright condemnation of Russia from India), if they want to advance their own primary objective of containing China.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by .sushilkumar

Every US military equipment comes with a End user agreement. Not many will know but F-16 to Pakistan were supplied for Anti terrorist operations and cannot be used in war or against any country. That's why there were concerns raised when they used them against us post Balakot.

I agree with your general premise that the French and the Russians have been better allies than the US for India. However, regarding the Pakistani F16s, the end user agreement came about because these were bought using US aid to Pakistan. So, the US wanted to ensure that such high-end weapons when bought with US aid shouldn't be used against India. However, countries that purchase US defense equipment using their own money don't have this clause which is why the Turks are able to bomb the Kurds using F16s with impunity though the latter is a US ally. India would never have purchased offensive equipment like the Apache helicopters with such a clause.

Originally Posted by ads11

Aren't Elbit primarily an electronic systems vendor, ie, radar and such like? Do they have any integrated platforms of their own? Also while I'm not surprised to hear Adani somehow has a defence division, just how wet behind the ears is this outfit and is it practicable to expect them to churn out a marine UAV?

All questions that have to be answered. I somehow feel uncomfortable about this, letting go of a tangible order of MQ-9s that can improve the capability of the Indian Navy multi-fold for a UAV that might not even exist right now, built by a company with no experience in the defense industry but is widely known to have the ear of the current administration. Fishy to say the least.

Meanwhile, Boeing has released the video of the F/A-18's trials in Goa. Dassault really needs to step up its marketing because Boeing is winning the perception battle here.

PS based on the display screens (though pixelated), seems like they didn't use a Block 3 for this test because the Block 3 has a single large display like the F35.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wga-hHIYAa0

[ads11]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

However, regarding the Pakistani F16s, the end user agreement came about because these were bought using US aid to Pakistan.

I wondered if the clause was related to US aid. The only country that gets a free reign despite US aid related purchases is Israel. It's safe to say no one else can expect to get away without some control clauses inserted (I'm willing to bet even Canada or the UK, should they find themselves hypothetically using US aid to purchase US weapons systems would be excluded).

All questions that have to be answered. I somehow feel uncomfortable about this, letting go of a tangible order of MQ-9s that can improve the capability of the Indian Navy multi-fold for a UAV that might not even exist right now, built by a company with no experience in the defense industry but is widely known to have the ear of the current administration. Fishy to say the least.

You've pretty much taken the words out of my mouth. I have reservations about a totally new domestic vendor being given a complex clean sheet initiative like this (wasn't there the sobering story of Anil Ambani's own defence outfit really screwing the pooch on some naval contract? I feel like an Adani involvement here would be highly dubious to say the least). Even if it were a domestic vendor with a track record in the military space (Tata Defence, Mahindra, or one of the PSUs), I concur, the MQ-9 is proven and it's available and widely tested. Crucially it's already compatible with many of the systems and subsystems on the IN's P-8I fleet. Should the Super Hornet be selected I wonder if the case to revisit a MQ-9 order gets stronger.

Meanwhile, Boeing has released the video of the F/A-18's trials in Goa. Dassault really needs to step up its marketing because Boeing is winning the perception battle here.

Yeah no kidding, Boeing marketing is putting their money where their mouth is with all these videos and the steady stream of press and potentially targeted leaks about their offering.

I think the heartbreak of the JSF flyoff between the X-35 and X-32 was a bitter experience for Boeing. For context, LockMart famously got their X-35 demonstrator to do all 3 flight phases, including crucially the VTOL requirement without any major mods and well ahead of their own target date. Boeing meanwhile had to scramble to get their X-32 to rush into a VTOL demonstration that they hadn't planned to do that soon, iirc they only achieved it after cutting a bunch of weight on the testbed (basically barebones trim - I think famously it had it's internal weapons bay panels taken off). And then the engine nearly overheated or did in fact overheat. All told it was a miserable showing in front of Pentagon top brass and suffice to say that really was a deathblow for the Boeing offering for the JSF programme. I feel that pain was institutionalised and at least it seems they've learnt not to hold back on high impact visuals that could sway decision making, at least when it comes to visually demonstrating key contest capability.

https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=wga-hHIYAa0

I tried freeze framing and I couldn't quite discern just how much stores were on the test airframe other than the two large drop tanks. I guess that key image doesn't need to be released to the general public, though I'm sure it's doing the rounds in South Block and down at Dassault too.