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I'm so used to seeing this silhouette in civilian use I can't help but feel there should be a tail fin livery rather than a tail flash. Dunno if anyone else finds themselves unconsciously doing the same with the Poseidon.

Here's hoping this 12th one doesn't end up being the last of these jets inducted into service.

[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by ads11

I'm so used to seeing this silhouette in civilian use I can't help but feel there should be a tail fin livery rather than a tail flash. Dunno if anyone else finds themselves unconsciously doing the same with the Poseidon.

Here's hoping this 12th one doesn't end up being the last of these jets inducted into service.

Don't mean to nitpick, but Indian Navy aircraft do not sport finflashes on the tail fin like their IAF counterparts. The last Navy aircraft to do it were the Navy's three Vampire FB.52s in the 60s.

But yes, I have noticed the Navy has got rid of the 'flashy' identification markings on their latest P-8Is. The dark blue and bold "Navy" on either sides of the fuselage is no longer there. The airbase ID on the tail fin(ARK/DAB), two digit serial numeral on the nose , underwing serial too seem to be missing. Infact, the only I'd markings on the new P-8Is are the roundels and serial number IN3XX in low viz grey. The MH-60s to seem to be following similar low key identification markings.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by ads11

Here's hoping this 12th one doesn't end up being the last of these jets inducted into service.

Tough luck on that mate. It seems that the government has pulled the plug on the deal for predator drones as well. While the official claim is due to the high cost and focus on "self-reliance", the timing does bring out some questions. Is India responding to some threat of sanctions from Washington due to the S400 deal? I'm sure that the Americans would be a lot less willing to give a CAATSA exception after today's events.


Link

India has put its plan to acquire 30 Predator armed drones from the US on the back burner, on account of its focus on indigenous development and manufacturing, as well as the prohibitive cost involved. HT learns that the Pentagon has been informed of the decision.

The decision to put the acquisition on hold was taken as India already has some capability in armed drones; it is currently upgrading the Israeli Heron drones. The Predator platform with armed payload, as in missiles and laser-guided bombs, costs nearly $100 million apiece, but the platform has an endurance of nearly 27 hour

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Tough luck on that mate. It seems that the government has pulled the plug on the deal for predator drones as well. While the official claim is due to the high cost and focus on "self-reliance", the timing does bring out some questions. Is India responding to some threat of sanctions from Washington due to the S400 deal? I'm sure that the Americans would be a lot less willing to give a CAATSA exception after today's events.


Link

I would say that sanctions could possibly prove to be a win for India in the medium to long run. The only way that indigenous private sector can take off is when our import hungry forces simply do not have the option to procure foreign hardware. Let us wait and see how this affair pans out.

P.S: I don't think US is going to be able to implement economic sanctions on India in the current scenario. The refusal of certain EU states to give sanction to removing Russia from the SWIFT system has portrayed that US influence does have its limitations when economic interests of individual nation states are in play in the current geo-political scenario.

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Originally Posted by dragracer567

I'm sure that the Americans would be a lot less willing to give a CAATSA exception after today's events.


Link

Do the Predators really cost $100m a piece?! That sounds alarmingly off. I'm guessing this is simply dividing the $3b total order price by 30 but surely that total order value included sustainment costs, etc. I get annoyed usually when folks quote say the sticker price for just the hardware itself but then totally ignore that more than half the cost is in the sustainment of that particular platform. $100m is in the ball park of Much bigger drones like the Global Hawk. I'd reckon the Predator drones are at most $50m a piece, if even that.

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

I would say that sanctions could possibly prove to be a win for India in the medium to long run..

In the long run sure, there's merit to self sufficiency, earned the hard way but India has a sad affinity for an all or nothing approach. I wish there was room to recognise there are some areas where there's no need to reinvent the wheel ourselves. Take the P-8 platform. There's no need for us to develop something like that indigenously, it would be a colossal waste of time and money (look how much the Japanese spent on their P-1 programme and what scant success they've had on the export market with that). So some things like the P-8 the govt should be prepared to turn to the market to meet the requirement.

I do think though that dragracers concerns about potential CAATSA sanctions could be valid. After recent events it's a lot less likely anyone would look too kindly upon the Russians, so any big deals with them would attract scrutiny for sure. Are there any big ticket items where they're in play? I know they pulled out of the Project 75I submarine tender for eg.

[kosjam]

Originally Posted by ads11

Do the Predators really cost $100m a piece?! That sounds alarmingly off. I'm guessing this is simply dividing the $3b total order price by 30 but surely that total order value included sustainment costs, etc. I get annoyed usually when folks quote say the sticker price for just the hardware itself but then totally ignore that more than half the cost is in the sustainment of that particular platform. $100m is in the ball park of Much bigger drones like the Global Hawk. I'd reckon the Predator drones are at most $50m a piece, if even that.

I don't doubt either of your figures, $50M sticker price, or the $100M all in price for each predator drone. But Unlike most other drones out there, American tech has the distinction of being battle tested and better than any other platform in its competition. If a predator can replace army aviation choppers on SEAD or ground attack roles with a running cost of (probably) less than half of a comparable manned fighter/chopper, on top of which the negligible risk to its pilot sitting safely inside our territory, and being more efficient and stealthy due to its smaller size, it would justify the high initial cost. American products (electronics in general, defense equipment in particular) have a better UX ensuring better ROI, as compared to our legacy supplier, Russia. Israeli drones still do not have the precision of their American counterparts. So I actually believe the costing is justified in this case.

Originally Posted by ads11

In the long run sure, there's merit to self sufficiency, earned the hard way but India has a sad affinity for an all or nothing approach. I wish there was room to recognise there are some areas where there's no need to reinvent the wheel ourselves. Take the P-8 platform. There's no need for us to develop something like that indigenously, it would be a colossal waste of time and money. So some things like the P-8 the govt should be prepared to turn to the market to meet the requirement.

I do think though that dragracers concerns about potential CAATSA sanctions could be valid. After recent events it's a lot less likely anyone would look too kindly upon the Russians, so any big deals with them would attract scrutiny for sure. Are there any big ticket items where they're in play? I know they pulled out of the Project 75I submarine tender for eg.

The P8 platform was initially identified and purchased when the indigenous industry for sensors was at a very nascent stage and not capable of providing mature technology. The follow on orders are generally accepted as there is generally an insignificant price increase compared to initial order.

10 years down the line, companies like BEL and other private sensor tech companies are working in overdrive, driven by the current government's push towards indigenous development, and are in a position to be able to bring out sensor suites if not at par, then at least one generation older, and these suites are generally platform indifferent. Just like HAL/DRDO have taken older Air India airbuses to be retrofitted with AWACS level suites, same can be done for the MR suites, at a fraction of the cost of say a P8, which is essentially a Boring 737 kitted out with the MR suite developed by their defence labs.

I doubt CAATSA will play any significant role, because we have to remember, America needs us in their corner as a counter to China, they will not play that card just because they believe India did not do enough to stop Russia. Russia pulled out of the submarine tender as the tender required an already functional AIP which the Russians do not have.

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Originally Posted by kosjam

So I actually believe the costing is justified in this case.

Oh I don't doubt the effectiveness of a lot of US kit at all. Hardly. More like the costing was almost too high for me to expect even the USAF, let alone Congress, to swallow if it were for their own domestic tender.

10 years down the line, companies like BEL and other private sensor tech companies are working in overdrive, driven by the current government's push towards indigenous development, and are in a position to be able to bring out sensor suites if not at par, then at least one generation older, and these suites are generally platform indifferent. Just like HAL/DRDO have taken older Air India airbuses to be retrofitted with AWACS level suites, same can be done for the MR suites, at a fraction of the cost of say a P8, which is essentially a Boring 737 kitted out with the MR suite developed by their defence labs.

I'm a bit hesitant on a number of counts. Firstly though I find the domestic AWACS effort to retrofit an ex civilian Airbus admirable, I think bringing together so many subsystems on one platform and getting it to work is a tricky enterprise. Just look at how difficult Russia has found it with their own replacement for the A-50 Mainstays, the Beriev A-100. Granted sanctions on a lot of the electronics and supply issues for the upgraded parent Il-78s mostly impact that programme but it's not hard to see that it's a tricky endeavour.

Furthermore a worry I have is that the platform OEM might block any modified variant. Where I'm coming from with this, particularly wrt civilian airliners converted for military use, is the example of when an Israeli firm tried to offer their own tanker based on older Boeing jets they'd refurbished and fitted out accordingly. This was in response to the market for a modern tanker that wasn't the complex horror show that is the KC-46 programme. Rather than try to fix their boondoggle programme, Boeing successfully managed to block access to second hand parent jets for this Israeli contractor to use for their tanker conversions. I mean we've seen behaviour like this from Boeing before, famously when they got the Dept of Commerce to wage a tariff war to cripple the existential threat of the then Bombardier C series rather than take it on with their own offering and best it on merit. I mean given the cruel heartache Airbus has faced in India with tenders where to my knowledge it really hasn't put a foot wrong, I wouldn't blame a jaded executive moves to block in the same way that Boeing did in my aforementioned example. Granted the use of popular civilian airliners makes availability of parts much more tenable than bespoke military platforms, the risk still pertains.

All that being said, should India arrive at a point where it Does possess the capability to retrofit civilian platforms like so, I'd wholeheartedly welcome it.

at a fraction of the cost of say a P8, which is essentially a Boring 737 kitted out with the MR suite developed by their defence labs.

I'd caution in one more respect, that being there's more to it than integration right? One problem we already face with our smorgasbord of defence kit is that it's a logistics and maintenance nightmare. A natural consequence of the varied provenance of just about everything. The best thing we can do is simplify the platforms we have available and go for widely available ones which likely come with lower sustainment costs that come about with scale. The P-8 programme is a home run of a programme that is only going to grow when it comes to global operators. So just as this community of operators is reaching critical mass, and likely spares costs go down, India going for a bespoke limited run home brew edition of a marine ASW fixed wing platform is the opposite of sensible imo. Indigenise where scale is needed in terms of numbers required for the Indian forces and a domestic order book can sustain the associated development costs. Where not possible, go for the best value off the shelf system, and like you reiterated, the Poseidon is hard to beat on that front.

[dragracer567]

It seems that the Predator drone deal will go forward afterall. Now the reports say that the deal for the 30 armed Predator drones is in the advanced stages of procurement and will actually be ordered soon.

I am quite perplexed as to what happened between the Pentagon and the South Block in the past few days as both the news had come from quite authoritative sources (the latter directly reported by PTI).

News link

Governmental sources told news agency PTI that the Predator/MQ9B acquisition program of 30 aircraft is at an advanced stage of discussion between the Indian and US governments.

"It is a capability that operationalises the Major Defence Partner status that has been worked on for several years through the various foundational agreements and India's insertion into the MTCR. India will be the first non-NATO partner to receive this capability," the sources told news agency PTI.

The sources told Press Trust of India, who spoke on condition of anonymity, denied having any knowledge of the deal being put on the back-burner by India.

While the process has been slow, mainly due to the bureaucracy in the two countries, the Indian armed forces have leased two surveillance Predators from General Atomics.
These drones have emerged as a valuable surveillance asset for conducting reconnaissance of India's maritime and land borders with China and Pakistan, the sources said.

They said they have been receiving very good feedback from India in this regard.

According to governmental sources, six years of negotiations between the two governments at the highest levels have taken place. As an exception, the US government had cleared the offering of this armed capability to the first non-NATO ally. The defence procurement board of India's Ministry of Defence had met on this and cleared it late last year.

The next step is receiving a letter of request, another governmental source told PTI.

Also, interesting that India had also canceled a multi-lateral exercise in the UK with some European Air Forces in which the Tejas was due to make its foreign/multi-lateral air exercise debut and this was done explicitly due to the situation at Ukraine. This I'm guessing is due to the C17s being kept on stand-by to airlift Indian nationals as the C17s were originally bound to fly to the UK to support the Tejas as well.

Originally Posted by ads11

I'd caution in one more respect, that being there's more to it than integration right? One problem we already face with our smorgasbord of defence kit is that it's a logistics and maintenance nightmare. A natural consequence of the varied provenance of just about everything. The best thing we can do is simplify the platforms we have available and go for widely available ones which likely come with lower sustainment costs that come about with scale. The P-8 programme is a home run of a programme that is only going to grow when it comes to global operators. So just as this community of operators is reaching critical mass, and likely spares costs go down, India going for a bespoke limited run home brew edition of a marine ASW fixed wing platform is the opposite of sensible imo. Indigenise where scale is needed in terms of numbers required for the Indian forces and a domestic order book can sustain the associated development costs. Where not possible, go for the best value off the shelf system, and like you reiterated, the Poseidon is hard to beat on that front.

+1

[kosjam]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

It seems that the Predator drone deal will go forward afterall. Now the reports say that the deal for the 30 armed Predator drones is in the advanced stages of procurement and will actually be ordered soon.
I am quite perplexed as to what happened between the Pentagon and the South Block in the past few days as both the news had come from quite authoritative sources (the latter directly reported by PTI).

We all know that the vast majority of discussions and meetings carried out by governments do not see the light of day, with most of the leaks and media insight being carefully leaked to let the general public know as little as possible of the actual nature of a subject.

I speculate, that the deal might have been to go ahead with the abstaining of vote in the UNSC in return for upholding the $3 Billion deal to an important American defense contractor. a sort of Quid pro quo. The icing on the cake for India would be the entry into the major non NATO Major Defense Partner tag, which would open the door for greater cooperation if/when the Indo-pacific theatre begins acting up.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Also, interesting that India had also canceled a multi-lateral exercise in the UK with some European Air Forces in which the Tejas was due to make its foreign/multi-lateral air exercise debut and this was done explicitly due to the situation at Ukraine. This I'm guessing is due to the C17s being kept on stand-by to airlift Indian nationals as the C17s were originally bound to fly to the UK to support the Tejas as well.

While that could still be the reason why the IAF pulled back, the official reason is that the exercise has been cancelled.

Multi-nation air exercise cancelled amid Ukraine crisis

Quoting from the above link:

Citing “recent events”, the IAF on Saturday said on social media it has decided not to participate in the multi-nation exercise Cobra Warrior scheduled to be hosted by the U.K., but the post was subsequently deleted. Diplomatic sources stated that the U.K. has decided to cancel the exercise in view of the Russian invasion and offensive in Ukraine.

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Originally Posted by dragracer567

It seems that the Predator drone deal will go forward afterall... I am quite perplexed as to what happened between the Pentagon and the South Block in the past few days as both the news had come from quite authoritative sources (the latter directly reported by PTI).

Originally Posted by kosjam

I speculate, that the deal might have been to go ahead with the abstaining of vote in the UNSC in return for upholding the $3 Billion deal to an important American defense contractor. a sort of Quid pro quo.

We all know that largely Indian defence procurement is for large intents and purposes a lever of diplomatic policy in terms of patching up ties with certain partners through doing a deal. Wouldn't be surprised if this is indeed what is partially the rationale behind the sudden about turn on signing off for this deal - would be a sweetener for the US prior to mid term season especially as India walks a diplomatic tight rope over the whole unfolding Ukraine scenario. Wonder if other deals get signed off to assuage Western partners in the following weeks.

Shame though on the Tejas missing out on its debut multi lateral exercise. I think detractors and supporters of the jet would get some clarity from some tangible feedback/outside perspective in the environs of an exercise.

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by ads11

We all know that largely Indian defence procurement is for large intents and purposes a lever of diplomatic policy in terms of patching up ties with certain partners through doing a deal.

Irrespective of country literally every defence acquisition decision has a lot of political weightage behind it. Had that not been the case the PAF would not have touched chinese engine equipped J10s with a barge pole!

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Originally Posted by shortbread

Irrespective of country literally every defence acquisition decision has a lot of political weightage behind it. Had that not been the case the PAF would not have touched chinese engine equipped J10s with a barge pole!

Oh no doubt. It's just that broadly speaking those nations who tend to historically be net importers of defence equipment, particularly large ones such as India, you end up with a greater emphasis on tenders being tied to diplomatic policy as well. But sure, I agree that this is true for most procurement programmes simply because of the enormous capital involved and all the ancillary benefits such as jobs etc that come into the picture.

On another note while reading about the will-they-won't-they wrt the Polish Mig-29s, I had the hare-brained idea of what if India promised their IN Mig-29K's in return for a sweetened deal for the TEDBF programme. Obviously then I immediately chuckled at the ensuing s***storm such an idea would wreak in the corridors of power in New Delhi and parked it. (NOTE: This is quite clearly a very very silly idea).

Imagine any ongoing tenders must be like walking on eggshells from a diplomatic standpoint given the current circumstances. Wonder if the usual lack of strings attached with French kit suddenly looks a lot sweeter now.

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by ads11

On another note while reading about the will-they-won't-they wrt the Polish Mig-29s, I had the hare-brained idea of what if India promised their IN Mig-29K's in return for a sweetened deal for the TEDBF programme. Obviously then I immediately chuckled at the ensuing s***storm such an idea would wreak in the corridors of power in New Delhi and parked it. (NOTE: This is quite clearly a very very silly idea).

In an ideal world if China was the aggressor, sell the Migs to the Ukrainians with US as the mediators and get F18s as replacements. Win - Win, only if global diplomacy was this easy!

[skanchan95]

On 29 March 2022, INAS 316, the new Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance air squadron will get formally commissioned at INS Hansa,Goa.

INAS 316 has been nicknamed 'The Condors' and they will operate the P-8I. The other P-8I squadron - INAS 312 " Albatross" are based in Arakkonam.