[volkman10]

Is VW group hinting at disruptions in its road map for India?

India lacks in ease of doing business : Volkswagen


Volkswagen India finds it hard to do business amid ‘Anti-China Movement’.

many suppliers in China are more competitive than here.

Gurpratap S Boparai, Managing Director of Volkswagen Group’s Indian division, states that “any knee-jerk reaction” can cause damage to the brand’s operations. He added that Volkswagen, being a global brand, depends on foreign supply networks.

An exporter requires imported components to operate smoothly and a nation cannot expect outside markets to open without opening its market to key investors or new companies. Gurpratap is also in the opinion that the Indian government has rushed into BS6 emission norms, after completely skipping BS5 norms.

Furthermore, there is an excessive focus on electric vehicles which seems unjustified to brands that have invested an exorbitant amount in converting their products to higher emission specifications.

EVs enjoy multiple tax benefits compared to a regular ICE alternative, especially in urban environments. Meanwhile, leading brands have to recover the investment made on BS6 models before they can focus on new all-electric powertrains.

Hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, do not receive enough backing from the government despite being the most logical first step towards reducing emissions.

Link

[Vid6639]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Volkswagen and Skoda need to read this -

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...me-launch.html (Why it's important to offer the right engines + AT gearboxes + variants at the time of launch)

They will once again risk a lukewarm entry with only the petrol option at launch and waiting for the market to decide, when the numbers are clearly seen in competition.

Come on, give VW some credit. They were the first to bring in DSG and TSI engines. Their new 1.0L TSI engine is one of the sweetest engines and they have even listened to the masses by dropping the DSG in favour of simpler and reliable TC box. They are also one that hasn't succumbed to the AMT craze in our country.

The intention to come out of diesel is one I support for small and mid size cars. Other than the Kodiaq, Tiguan and the big Audi's like the Q5 and Q7, I see no reason to go for a diesel anymore.

And yes in that thread you can see VW and Skoda did make mistakes with the Jetta missing out on a petrol and the Rapid missing out on the 1.2L TSI. They focused on diesels whereas the market wanted petrols especially their TSI engines.

IMO, a manufacturer has to take a stand against what he believes. Maruti took a stand of no more diesels but Hyundai didn't. Maruti may be reconsidering that stand but you can see it has clearly worked for all their cars except the Ertiga which even with petrol will sell but needs a diesel as the target requires it. So they might get diesel but I doubt it will be in anything small.

It's like Apple who removed the 3.5mm headphone jack in the iPhone. How many people made a hue and cry and it was a huge deal. When the new iPhone 7 was launched people simply queued up and bought one. Now all the Android flagships are also without one.

IMO this is not VW or Skoda not offering the right engines or gearbox for India. It's just them taking a different strategy in the market. They might not be able to succeed or they may. They probably won't compete with Hyundai/Kia on volumes but they are ok with that.

Given the erratic fuel prices of Diesel, the additional cost of BS6 hardware, the additional maintenance cost of the DPF, the small additional cost of diesel emission fluid that needs regular topups and the long term reliability concerns of DPF in our driving conditions, there is very little reason for someone to buy a diesel car.

As a low volume manufacturer who doesn't sell a lot of cars, this is a law of diminishing returns.

Good to hear - I hope the 1.5 TSi makes for a USP in the Taigun / Kamiq (Vision IN). And also be priced competitively because the 1.4 TGDi presents good competition - Seltos is faster than the Karoq for example, as per ACI figures. But the Indianized ones could be smaller and lighter cars.

Both these will get the 1.0L TSI in most variants and only a top end variant will probably get a 1.5L TSI with 7 speed DSG. The Karoq is probably heavier at 1,320kgs than the Seltos but since Kia doesn't reveal kerb weights we will never know.

Different segments? Petrol is surely gaining momentum in the lower segments and Maruti is the default brand just like Hero in motorcycles. In tense situations like these, trusted brands like Maruti Suzuki will only gain better faith among buyers.

That said - the Creta/Seltos numbers clearly show the bias isn't tilted in this segment, yet. And Volkswagen group is no Maruti Suzuki!

Actually it's strange to see the Creta/Seltos diesel sales be so high so I did a little bit of digging around. My guess is it has something to do with the variants. Kia/Hyundai both don't offer lower and mid variants with the 1.4L turbo petrol. Hyundai only offers the 1.4L petrol with a DSG (lone variant) and Kia gives only upper mid and top end with MT.

However the diesel is available through out the variant range from base to top with MT and AT. On top of it the 1.5L NA has a CVT which many didn't like in terms of performance and the 1.4L has a DCT which many are weary of reliability. My guess is Kia is almost pushing the diesels more than the petrols and their diesels are more sorted in terms of options plus the gearbox tech being reliable and not as dull as CVT.

Then you come to the prices. The 1.4L Turbo in Creta is identical to the top spec Diesel 6AT price. The Seltos 1.4L Turbo 7DCT is priced identical to the diesel but the diesel has 2 lower trim levels in AT which you don't get in petrol. The Kia 1.4L petrol MT is priced significantly higher than the diesel MT variants! So if you want a well priced Creta or Seltos your only option is an underwhelming 1.5L NA petrol with an even more dull CVT or a well rounded diesel with a torque converter. The 1.4L is exclusive.

If you look at the above Kia is actually positioning the diesel as the more attractive option!

Agree to disagree. I can't see the logic comparing initial dispatches still. For example - Are we expecting the Tiguan to settle at 183 units per month and TRoc at 384? I'm expecting both to settle at a small fraction of these numbers within a couple of months, even the 1.0 TSi products will mostly fall from the current highs. Any real YOY comparisons make sense only once the numbers settle.

Yup I know sales will stabilize but in case of VW everything this year is a stop gap till their next gen of cars come out.

If VW / Skoda tries the petrol only route and is met with a lukewarm response - how relevant will they be in 2023? They are banking a lot on these two SUVs and if those fail - VW group will just remain another average player for the next half of the decade.

These are all ifs and buts and every company has to take a gamble. There's never a time when a company comes up with a new product without a gamble. VW/Skoda could get a lukewarm response even with TDI options if the car has other shortfalls. MG is outselling the Harrier without a diesel AT and with petrol option. Jeep is feeling the pinch without low cost variants of the Jeep and a poor petrol motor. Their diesel is superior but isn't getting any numbers.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Actually it's strange to see the Creta/Seltos diesel sales be so high so I did a little bit of digging around. My guess is it has something to do with the variants. Kia/Hyundai both don't offer lower and mid variants with the 1.4L turbo petrol. Hyundai only offers the 1.4L petrol with a DSG (lone variant) and Kia gives only upper mid and top end with MT.

However the diesel is available through out the variant range from base to top with MT and AT. On top of it the 1.5L NA has a CVT which many didn't like in terms of performance and the 1.4L has a DCT which many are weary of reliability. My guess is Kia is almost pushing the diesels more than the petrols and their diesels are more sorted in terms of options plus the gearbox tech being reliable and not as dull as CVT.

Then you come to the prices. The 1.4L Turbo in Creta is identical to the top spec Diesel 6AT price. The Seltos 1.4L Turbo 7DCT is priced identical to the diesel but the diesel has 2 lower trim levels in AT which you don't get in petrol. The Kia 1.4L petrol MT is priced significantly higher than the diesel MT variants! So if you want a well priced Creta or Seltos your only option is an underwhelming 1.5L NA petrol with an even more dull CVT or a well rounded diesel with a torque converter. The 1.4L is exclusive.

If you look at the above Kia is actually positioning the diesel as the more attractive option!

Actually Vidyut - this is the case for with most direct injection turbo-petrols having very less price advantage compared to the turbo-diesel counterparts. You would also remember how Ford Ecoboost, Baleno Boosterjet, etc were very pricey options v/s their diesel counterparts. i10 Nios TGDi is more expensive than the diesel, whereas Venue TGDi is only 50k less expensive. Modern direct injection petrols are expensive.

Earlier with turbo-petrols being mainly performance-oriented versions, people never calculated the premium on the diesels v/s the turbo petrols - but now they are becoming mainstream. Hyundai and VW is already democratising it, Renault and Nissan have jumped in, Mahindra and TATA are readying their offerings and Mahindra will be sharing with Ford as well.

Here's a quick list of most turbo-petrol options in the compact SUV market, and their costs disadvantage (or minimal advantage) v/s their turbo-diesel variants.



Coming specifically to VW - the Taigun/ Vision IN we are discussing will only have a TSi direct injection turbo petrol range. Although a direct comparison is not possible in the current VW range, it can be noted that the Ameo TSi DSG option was actually marginally pricier than the TDi DSG option. The current Rapid Rider 1.0 TSi is 50k more than the earlier 1.6 MPI despite the tax concessions on the new one.

It will not be far fetched to consider that the 1.5 TSi on the Taigun wouldn't have been much more expensive than a 1.5 TDI either!

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Given the erratic fuel prices of Diesel, the additional cost of BS6 hardware, the additional maintenance cost of the DPF, the small additional cost of diesel emission fluid that needs regular topups and the long term reliability concerns of DPF in our driving conditions, there is very little reason for someone to buy a diesel car.

I think you are still calculating the old premium v/s NA petrol engines and adding all these costs up!

NA petrols aren't very relevant in this market space now (especially when speaking of non-Maruti models) and not at all relevant to VW. They are either offered in lower variants, or not offered at all. Have you calculated the scenario w.r.t competing turbo-petrols and turbo diesel models?

Considering the above charts - the price difference between the two falls between INR 0 (Creta) - INR 1555000 (Nexon). Here is a calculation for both (Taking Delhi as reference for car and fuel prices, and I'm assuming 15k extra for servicing BS6 diesel v/s petrol - to keep it on the high side).







Taking my own example - my average running was close to 70 kms per day till last year. For a usage of 25k - 30k kms per year, I'll be happy to hear the maths on how a 1.5 TSi option makes more sense than the 1.5 TDI (BS6 - DEF, DPF etc added), over an ownership period of 8-10 years?

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Come on, give VW some credit. They were the first to bring in DSG and TSI engines. Their new 1.0L TSI engine is one of the sweetest engines and they have even listened to the masses by dropping the DSG in favour of simpler and reliable TC box. They are also one that hasn't succumbed to the AMT craze in our country.

The intention to come out of diesel is one I support for small and mid size cars. Other than the Kodiaq, Tiguan and the big Audi's like the Q5 and Q7, I see no reason to go for a diesel anymore.

Absolutely VW should get credit where it deserves. I was absolutely excited with the Skoda Rapid 1.0 TSi for example, especially the Rider and Rider+ variants. That said - I fail to understand the relevance to this discussion on diesel engines.

It also doesn't matter whether you or I agree to this discussion as well - what matters is that direct competition is seeing excellent sales on the diesel variants.

A customer looking for a diesel option will not buy a VW because they were the first to introduce DSG or because they never tried AMT. They customer will just move on to a competitor offering a diesel option.

Originally Posted by Vid6639

IMO this is not VW or Skoda not offering the right engines or gearbox for India. It's just them taking a different strategy in the market. They might not be able to succeed or they may.

Yup I know sales will stabilize but in case of VW everything this year is a stop gap till their next gen of cars come out.

These are all ifs and buts and every company has to take a gamble.

Absolutely! For a company targeting a 3-fold increase in market-share with the Volkswagen 2.0 project, going with only petrol option is exactly that - a gamble.

The Hyundai (Creta 60% diesel) - Kia (Seltos 50% diesel) scenario makes quite clear that diesels have adequate takers even in this BS6 day and age. Coming out with a competitor with only a 1.5 TSi petrol, is only targetting a portion of the other 40%. When sales in the segment are still relevant and a majority, I don't just understand the hurry to herald the death of diesels citing COVID and DEF, DPF costs.

Cup is half full when you look at it, cup is half empty when users like myself with more usage look at it.

[TokyoDrifter]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Taking my own example - my average running was close to 70 kms per day till last year. For a usage of 25k - 30k kms per year, I'll be happy to hear the maths on how a 1.5 TSi option makes more sense than the 1.5 TDI (BS6 - DEF, DPF etc added), over an ownership period of 8-10 years?

Aren't you missing out on the extra maintenance cost for diesel for that extra 1.05 years - am talking about the part where you are breaking down the fixed cost paid upfront and maintenance cost. Shouldn't add much more to the breakeven time-frame but thought I'll clarify the same.

[steadfast]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Actually it's strange to see the Creta/Seltos diesel sales be so high so I did a little bit of digging around. My guess is it has something to do with the variants. Kia/Hyundai both don't offer lower and mid variants with the 1.4L turbo petrol. Hyundai only offers the 1.4L petrol with a DSG (lone variant) and Kia gives only upper mid and top end with MT.

However the diesel is available through out the variant range from base to top with MT and AT. On top of it the 1.5L NA has a CVT which many didn't like in terms of performance and the 1.4L has a DCT which many are weary of reliability. My guess is Kia is almost pushing the diesels more than the petrols and their diesels are more sorted in terms of options plus the gearbox tech being reliable and not as dull as CVT.

Then you come to the prices. The 1.4L Turbo in Creta is identical to the top spec Diesel 6AT price. The Seltos 1.4L Turbo 7DCT is priced identical to the diesel but the diesel has 2 lower trim levels in AT which you don't get in petrol. The Kia 1.4L petrol MT is priced significantly higher than the diesel MT variants! So if you want a well priced Creta or Seltos your only option is an underwhelming 1.5L NA petrol with an even more dull CVT or a well rounded diesel with a torque converter. The 1.4L is exclusive.

If you look at the above Kia is actually positioning the diesel as the more attractive option!

May be they aim to breakeven before 2023 norms step in, so they are pushing Diesels. In this way, they increase their market share and anticipate to topple Maruti from leadership position.
Finally, more #cars = more revenues from services and spares.

With COVID, very less reviews are available for long term complications of BS6 hardware, so more customers are potentially falling into diesel trap which they might realise but very late. By then Hyundai would have breakeven and if owners report diesel complications, Hyundai says tata bye bye to diesel and switches to petrol

[arun_m5]

Originally Posted by gopi_rm

This is really a bad news. For mile munchers, diesel is the best choice in the current market. The TDI is one of the best diesel engines globally.

I think it may be due to expensive & complicated SCR twin dosing technology introduced by VW to meet RDE norms, VW has decided not to offer this engine in India. But for bigger SUVs from VW, Audi & Porsche still it makes sense to offer diesel engines until they develop a proper hybrid powertrain.

I'm sorry, but good riddance, if you know about the damage these VW diesels have actually done for the environment, you'd think differently. Fact is despite the strictest regulations across EU and North America, they've cheated. I can only imagine the level of cheating they've done elsewhere (India, China etc). Having said that, I'd never personally touch a VW product for their sheer irresponsibility towards the environment and absolutely unethical practices. The reports indicate their diesel cars have emitted 40x the normal amount of Nox into the atmosphere. In my opinion, they're better off if they just shut shop and find something better to do.

[VWAllstar]

Originally Posted by arun_m5

I use a a tuned 1.5 GT TDI whenever I visit Kerala, it's got a BMC filter and Stage 2 tune, yes it's insanely eager to get off the line and in gear acceleration can put some bigger cars to shame.

Originally Posted by arun_m5

I'm sorry, but good riddance, if you know about the damage these VW diesels have actually done for the environment, you'd think differently. Fact is despite the strictest regulations across EU and North America, they've cheated. I can only imagine the level of cheating they've done elsewhere (India, China etc). Having said that, I'd never personally touch a VW product for their sheer irresponsibility towards the environment and absolutely unethical practices.

It is easier said than done. VW have cheated and there is no running away from it. However, post the fix the Government had permitted for sale of their diesel engines with a lot of scrutiny. As you yourself drive the GT TDI, you would vouch for the sheer power and highway running capability. Unfortunately their current infrastructure in India does not make it financially viable for them to upgrade to BS6. Hence they have discontinued TDIs. Your post came across as a bit more harsh especially when you yourself drive their diesel cars with remap.

[lemedico]

Just received this thread's notification on my email while I was watching this video, where it is stated that VW is the pioneer in Diesel engines

https://youtu.be/a2BoM2qdrSw

[COMMUTER]

This is mostly the result of the treacherous delay in making the crash testing mandatory. Had the government made it compulsory for the manufacturers to give safer cars like the Scross or the polo, this wouldn't have happened inmy opinion. I hope that the government will make the crash testing mandatory like all the developed nations had already done a few decades ago. This will make the safer cars have a better chance. in addition to that the international car makers who have a good diesel market elsewhere will not think twice about making thosereat engines available here too instead of shying away from them.

[lifebuoy]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

1. Not really bad news anymore. With the COVID situation the number of milemunchers have reduced by a huge margin.

2. Secondly the price of diesel fuel is now same so thats another reason for diesel out the window. The 2 advantages of diesel were lower fuel cost and higher efficiency for those logging in lots of kms. Both have been negated by a huge extent.

3. Secondly with BS6 the price difference between petrol and diesel engines is wider.

1. On the contrary, the possibility of people preferring personal transport for upto 9-10 hrs' drive locations seem to have increased and the requirement for mile munchers might rise.

2. Yes, you are right here. FE has not been negated with the petrol engines, its the smaller capacity ones that are making the difference. In 1 tom plus weight vehicles, the oil burners shine with their torque characteristics and other diesel attributes. Therefore, the 20+ kpl diesels in the 1.5L capacity will still have takers, especially in the taxi market. Mahindra has an upper hand here, with the Bolero, TUV and Marazzo. And that's the primary reason VW, Renault-Nissan and Maruti have called it quits / or are including the CNG option. In the personal car market, the Seltos-Creta twins are well known... I'm sure a fair percentage here are diesel driven.

3. Spot on. The prices, even with TATA vehicles has made a huge impact, whee even a die-hard diesel fan like me would opt for a petrol engine for a city car.

[Vid6639]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Actually Vidyut - this is the case for with most direct injection turbo-petrols having very less price advantage compared to the turbo-diesel counterparts. You would also remember how Ford Ecoboost, Baleno Boosterjet, etc were very pricey options v/s their diesel counterparts. i10 Nios TGDi is more expensive than the diesel, whereas Venue TGDi is only 50k less expensive. Modern direct injection petrols are expensive.

Here's a quick list of most turbo-petrol options in the compact SUV market, and their costs disadvantage (or minimal advantage) v/s their turbo-diesel variants.

Yup I'm well aware of this and if you see, it cements my point that Kia and Hyundai are being very greedy with the pricing of their Turbo Petrol offering. They are intentionally pushing the diesel down buyers throats by pricing the turbo petrol higher and having more options to choose in Diesel vs petrol.

If you remember when the Ecosport was launched the price difference between the EcoBoost and TDCi was 70K. Back then we felt that difference was not enough as the difference in fuel costs was huge and Ecoboost was not great in mileage. If you see in your table, Mahindra is still keeping the ~60K price delta but now the diesel fuel is much more expensive and the BS6 maintenance we don't know. Mahindra also reduced prices overall of XUV across the board. Also remember diesel BS6 FE is lesser than BS4 so the advantage is even lesser. Tata has a huge difference with the turbo petrol and diesel which makes the petrol a good vfm pick.

The Hyundai Venue is where it gets interesting. The 55K difference between the 1.0L GDI vs the 1.5L CRDI is enough to tilt the sales in favour of the Turbo petrol. 44% from turbo petrol, 30% from Diesel and 26% from 1.2L NA petrol. And the majority of sales would have been during BS4. Which means with the new 1.5L BS6 diesel I am expecting the ratio to shift even further in favour of 1.0L T-GDI.

https://www.autocarindia.com/car-new...st-year-417770

This is what I was saying should be the trend we will be seeing going forwards. Now imagine if Hyundai actually decide to get more variants of the DCT Venue like the top end SX(O). Right now they have only top trims with the manual and DCT is only mid spec.

Coming specifically to VW - the Taigun/ Vision IN we are discussing will only have a TSi direct injection turbo petrol range. Although a direct comparison is not possible in the current VW range, it can be noted that the Ameo TSi DSG option was actually marginally pricier than the TDi DSG option. The current Rapid Rider 1.0 TSi is 50k more than the earlier 1.6 MPI despite the tax concessions on the new one.

It will not be far fetched to consider that the 1.5 TSi on the Taigun wouldn't have been much more expensive than a 1.5 TDI either!

There was never a Ameo TSI DSG in the first place. The Ameo was only available with the Diesel DSG combo. The Ameo TSI was a myth. The Vento TSI DSG was 1.2 ~ 1.4 lakhs lesser than the 1.5TDI DSG equivalent.

And if VW had got the 1.5TDI BS6 the price difference would be even more with the 1.0L TSI but lesser than the 1.5L TSI. The 1.5L TDI would have had a DPF+SCR since VW doesn't use LNT tech and meant maintenance costs will be higher as well. Also a faulty DPF after warranty period is not 15K or 30K but closer to 1 lakh or even more. So all those running benefits would be out of the window with a DPF failure which is not rare / uncommon even in Europe.

I think you are still calculating the old premium v/s NA petrol engines and adding all these costs up!

NA petrols aren't very relevant in this market space now (especially when speaking of non-Maruti models) and not at all relevant to VW. They are either offered in lower variants, or not offered at all. Have you calculated the scenario w.r.t competing turbo-petrols and turbo diesel models?

Considering the above charts - the price difference between the two falls between INR 0 (Creta) - INR 1555000 (Nexon). Here is a calculation for both (Taking Delhi as reference for car and fuel prices, and I'm assuming 15k extra for servicing BS6 diesel v/s petrol - to keep it on the high side).

Taking my own example - my average running was close to 70 kms per day till last year. For a usage of 25k - 30k kms per year, I'll be happy to hear the maths on how a 1.5 TSi option makes more sense than the 1.5 TDI (BS6 - DEF, DPF etc added), over an ownership period of 8-10 years?

Nope I was never looking at NA vs Diesel. Was comparing 1.0L TSI with the old 1.5L TDI. The Creta and Kia clearly stand out as outliers as they are priced equally between the turbo petrol and diesel.

These excel sheets are nice on paper but not in real. Reasons:

1. You have taken Delhi current prices but for more than a month Diesel was Rs.80+ in Delhi. The target from the govt has always been to discourage diesel as private vehicles so the prices will always be dynamic and in the future you don't know what will happen.
2. Delhi is totally anti diesel with the NGT regulations. Nobody buys diesel there with 10 year ban which means if you buy a car and keep it for 8 years nobody is going to buy from you.
3. In Bangalore the price difference between petrol and diesel is less than Rs.5 right now and will only keep reducing.
4. Your calculations are done skewed towards diesel. The diesel FE is taken as 20 and 18kmpl which is city mileage driven efficiently. (Even in a frugal W-RV i-DTEC I am yet to touch 20kmpl on highway).
5. Incase of petrol you have taken 10kmpl and 12kmpl. We had the polo 1.0L TSI for the official review and redlined to galore. Drove it like we stole it and ensured we downshifted just for the sake of it for every overtake. The FE was 11.2kmpl.

With your calculations diesel will always look like a better option. Also you are discounting the fact that BS6 diesels give lower FE and actually waste diesel by burning them rich for purging the LNT and for DPF need high revs sustained for self cleaning. If both cars are MT, the FE difference will be 4-6kmpl not 8-10kmpl, especially since now most have 6 speed boxes.

In summary you don't know what the govt. will announce and when it will announce against diesel. Come 2023, with WLTP emission testing, they might even say BS6 cars need to be upgraded at owner cost and diesel will be sold to private vehicles with additional taxes. What then? There's no peace of mind for a buyer or a manufacturer in selling diesels.

Also your calculations are done only till break even and not through a typical ownership. The calculations actually don't make sense as you have service costs even during warranty period which are high. The calculations should be for example 8 years of ownership keeping in mind diesel has much higher maintenance after 4-5 year warranty period and from 2 year mark marginally higher with higher filters, oil capacity etc. Also insurance for diesel cost is more than Petrol.

VW and Maruti might be the clever one here and Hyundai/Kia being cheeky to maximise profits in short term by pushing diesels.

Absolutely VW should get credit where it deserves. I was absolutely excited with the Skoda Rapid 1.0 TSi for example, especially the Rider and Rider+ variants. That said - I fail to understand the relevance to this discussion on diesel engines.

It also doesn't matter whether you or I agree to this discussion as well - what matters is that direct competition is seeing excellent sales on the diesel variants.

A customer looking for a diesel option will not buy a VW because they were the first to introduce DSG or because they never tried AMT. They customer will just move on to a competitor offering a diesel option.

Since you had highlighted the thread on right engines and gearbox, the point was that VW/Skoda did get the right engine and even the gearbox.

The customer may go to Hyundai/Kia but we can't say that today since VW nor Skoda have launched their compact SUV's so we don't know the overall package or the pricing. Kia/Hyundai could also have BS6 reliability issues by then or might change their strategy and not force people to buy the diesel like what they are doing.

When VW/Skoda launch their offerings, they won't have a diesel but will try to cover the diesel buyers with the 1.0L TSI engine and keep the performance oriented buyers to the 1.5L TSI covering both bases. 1.0L TSI could be cheaper than the 1.5L CRDI Kia/Hyundai and tempt buyers towards it.

Absolutely! For a company targeting a 3-fold increase in market-share with the Volkswagen 2.0 project, going with only petrol option is exactly that - a gamble.

It is an even bigger gamble that MAruti have taken. VW/Skoda have taken a gamble albeit a safe one.

The Hyundai (Creta 60% diesel) - Kia (Seltos 50% diesel) scenario makes quite clear that diesels have adequate takers even in this BS6 day and age. Coming out with a competitor with only a 1.5 TSi petrol, is only targetting a portion of the other 40%. When sales in the segment are still relevant and a majority, I don't just understand the hurry to herald the death of diesels citing COVID and DEF, DPF costs.

Cup is half full when you look at it, cup is half empty when users like myself with more usage look at it.

The Creta and Seltos are selling well as a package and as I mentioned earlier the sales are skewed towards the diesel because they want it that way. The Creta sells 60% diesel since they have only 2 variants in turbo petrol and both are DCT plus both variants are above 20L on road. But the Creta diesel has 7 variants and they start from 12L on road to 21.5L on road. So a buyer can only get Turbo Petrol if he spends above 20L. If he wants a lower priced option he has to settle with underwhelming 1.5L NA or Diesel. It's pretty obvious, people will swing for the diesel.

The Seltos is similar story. They have 8 variants in Diesel starting from 12.5L to 21.5L. But if you want turbo petrol then you have to settle for top end in MT or DCT or a mid spec MT.

So in essence a buyer is not going for the diesel Seltos or Creta because of running costs, he is going for it because the diesel is the better engine vs 1.5L NA and is more VFM vs the 20L+ price tag for turbo petrol. The petrol:diesel ratio I am sure would be skewed the other way just like the Venue if the Turbo petrol was available in the mid level trim in both cars. Hyundai would have invested in the diesel engine and if they had promoted the Turbo petrol to wider audience could have shot themselves in the foot by cannibalising the diesel engine completely. Hence the variants were launched in such a way. I would say it's not buyers coming to Hyundai/Kia because they have Diesel options but more buyers choosing Creta/Seltos in general and then opting for the diesel since that's the VFM option. Clever sales strategy more than anything. They are pretty much bullying people into buying the diesel or 1.5L NA by making the 1.4L T-GDi exclusive.

It's pretty clear Kia/Hyundai are both pushing diesel and petrol NA over the Turbo petrol. Whereas VW/Skoda are offering this as primary choice.

Same for the Kicks comparison you mentioned. The new Kicks is primary Turbo Petrol and no longer a diesel option.

[Carpainter]

What I believe is that petrol is the go to fuel when it comes to small cars till EVs take charge. I don't see diesel coming back to the below 10lakh hatchback and sedan segment. So for VW/Skoda, offering 1.0TSI in Polo/Rapid is fine but offering only 1.5TSI in cars like Tiguan/Octavia or even 2 ltr Tsi for that matter in bigger cars is a big gamble. I think people including myself still want diesel when it comes to buying a suv even compact SUVs like Seltos and sales numbers prove it. Long term cost of ownership of BS6 diesel is unknown and DPF+adblue add to the cost but the additional mileage with much longer range is a big factor for someone going for suv. Otherwise Toyota could have simply discontinued diesel Innova for a petrol only offering. See how Duster is suffering without a diesel. Honda and Hyundai are still offering their City and Verna with diesel.

Covid is a limited time phenomenon and even though it's gonna stay with us for a while, people will eventually go back to normal routine may be after another year or so. Work from home is not an option for more than half the people in our country and after a certain time people will want to go out on weekend drives like before. All in all I think focussing on suv and yet relinquishing diesel is a counter productive strategy. Let's see how the market respond.

[Stribog]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Not really bad news anymore. With the COVID situation the number of milemunchers have reduced by a huge margin.

This reduction is definitely temporary. Humanity has been hit with even worse plagues and pandemics, always bounced back.

I wonder if covid induced demand shortage was even considered in a long term decision.

[TokyoDrifter]

Originally Posted by TokyoDrifter

Aren't you missing out on the extra maintenance cost for diesel for that extra 1.05 years - am talking about the part where you are breaking down the fixed cost paid upfront and maintenance cost. Shouldn't add much more to the breakeven time-frame but thought I'll clarify the same.

Originally Posted by Vid6639

These excel sheets are nice on paper but not in real. Reasons:

Originally Posted by Stribog

This reduction is definitely temporary. Humanity has been hit with even worse plagues and pandemics, always bounced back.

I wonder if covid induced demand shortage was even considered in a long term decision.

Did some math to point some key considerations! Definitely petrol makes lot of sense to buy these days; unless one is surely bound to drive ~100 km daily on an average for 8 long years! That’s about ~3 lac KM in 8 years.

[prateekchanana]

The decision makes more sense if the 10 year rules for diesel starts getting applicable all around India. When I purchased a 2 litre diesel Audi, my only reason for getting it was the petrol engine offered was a sad 1.4. If they even offered a respectable 1.8 I would have gladly chosen it over the 2 litre diesel.

And even though I don't intend to keep my car for 10 / 15 years, selling 8-9 year old diesel will be very difficult in delhi where as selling an 8-9 years old petrol car will be much easier. The depreciation hit a diesel owner takes is much more because of this rule than compared to a petrol owner I think. And the reducing price difference between petrol and diesel makes the case for diesel cars even worse, especially for small cars and sedans.

However, having an option to choose from is always a win for customer but if VW thinks the return on investment is not worth the effort on diesels maybe in longer run they will turn out to be right. Only time will tell how much success this move gets them in the India 2.0 strategy.