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Originally Posted by Sawyer Where in your opinion is the constraint in having a car with a solar panel on top of it so that it can run for free once the purchase price is paid? Obviously, you think these constraints will disappear in just ten years, so I am very curious to know what you think these are. |
Car with a solar panel on top of it? I didn't say that. I was talking of Rooftop Solar that will become commonplace in next decade (due to fall in price of solar). People will produce electricity at their homes/offices and consume it locally. Check the solar PV price graph, and it is self-evident.
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Originally Posted by octane_100 IMO, the date 2030 is just a wish list, nothing more nothing less. India may become power surplus soon but somebody should do the math on how many vehicles get sold every year, their cumulative running and the kWh equivalent of the same and then see if we can produce enough electricity to meet that demand!
Also, EV's don't have tail pipe emission which is great for the local environment. But what about battery production and disposal? What about power generation? Saying that nuclear is a "clean fuel" is oxymoron with the kind of risks involved, which have been reminded by the Fukushima disaster. |
Lithium-ion batteries are 100% recycle-able. i.e. Lithium from the battery can be re-extracted and a new battery can be made from that.
Nuclear power has risks involved. But, it is no where close to the risk of 100% people inhaling Nox, CO etc. A hydro project also has a risk.
Flying an Airplane has a risk too (some folks have fear of flying).. But, statistics show you are far more likely to die in a road accident than air accident.
Same is true for atomic power. You are more likely to die due to Fossil fuel emission induced troubles than nuclear accident. More people die every year due to fossil pollution than the number of people who died due to nuclear accident in entire existence. IT IS RELATIVELY SAFER.
Do read more about the failure at Fukushima and how many people actually died (or impacted) due to it. It was a freak accident, and first one to have happened after Chernobyl. Yet ZERO people died due to radiation. 34 died due to troubles related with evacuation+stress. 6 workers have exceeded lifetime limit of radiation (likely to have troubles in future). It is estimated a few hundred people will get cancer in their lifetime due to Fukushima.
Now - Count the number of people who die in various other type of powers. Nuclear & hydro power have least number of death per each Trillion KWh generated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy...nts#Fatalities
<b>Easy to be taken in by Fear, Uncertainty &Doubt. But, better to verify facts.</b>
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Originally Posted by Sawyer I don't see the advent of cars running on solar panels on their roofs in even 15 years. The tech just isn't there to reach that kind of performance. It would be lovely if it was, I have no doubts on that score! |
15yrs is a long time. Typically more than 1/3rd of your productive life. Tech on the other hand changes fast.
Solar PV module prices:
2007 - $3.4 / watt
2017 - $0.7 / watt
Cost of PV reduced by 5 times in 10yrs. Solar PV is silicon technology and is likely to keep reducing. If by 2027 we have 1/3rd the price for Rooftop installation, You cost per Kwh (one unit) will be way less than what we pay for grid power today.
In fact, Rooftop solar power is already cheaper than grid, if you can bear the initial expense. The trouble is with energy storage. But, Electric Vehicle already has storage!
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Originally Posted by Sawyer
Every Thursday the DG set still runs for 8-10 hours and occasionally on other days, and in general DG sets/inverters/UPS is even today a fast growing sector in India. |
Human mind is not attuned to change. It is more comfortable in linear progression than exponential progression. So, it is natural to think the current state will remain somewhat similar in future state.
Technology doesn't work like that. It disrupts severely. It reaches a point when all other technology & struggles look weird.
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Originally Posted by dark.knight Let me remain on the side of the pessimists, |
Sure. Most people are...
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Originally Posted by dark.knight Its unimaginable what would happen if the city faces a sudden surge of demand in power via the plug for the vehicles (Bangalore is 2nd only to Delhi with 4.1 million vehicles), imagine if 100% of the vehicles stood in line to suck the power from the grid. |
The demand is surging nevertheless. An efficient EV needs about 1unit of power to drive between 5km-10km (E2O gives me 10km/kwh).
Typical Indian drives between 20-40km a day. i.e 4units of power per day.
My household average power consumption per month before E2O was 600units. Average after E2O is about 640units. If I had more power hungry car (like Nissan Leaf) it may have gone to 700units.
It is a myth that Electric cars will put huge load on Grid. US studies estimate that overall additional grid capacity needed will be in the range of 10-15%.
We have more demand for power coming from other growth (like Airconditioners).
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Originally Posted by dark.knight We're not naysayers, we just want to see balance in what happens on earth, every action has ecologically-destructive consequences.. the key is to think 10 times before moving forward.. the ecological toll to scrap every fuel-burning car in India will do 100 times the damage than if they were to remain, the key is slow transition over 30-40 years, ensuring that every purchased vehicle gets their time in the sun. Will be happy to provide dozens upon dozens of links to those who want to know more via PM or if allowed, here as well (don't want to come off as overly pessimistic, you see). |
Naysayers who refuse that title!!
I am amazed you say scrapping polluting internal cumbustion engines will be 'econological disaster'. How so?
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Originally Posted by Sawyer In Pune, I use an AC, only at night, for just 2 months in a year. I use my car every day. |
You are atypical. Most of the new ACs come up, will run for over 200days in a year. In fact, in office blocks they will run 250days a year.
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Originally Posted by dark.knight The point isn't setting up power capacity, it is about having it reliably available at charging points everywhere. |
EXACTLY. sort of chicken and egg, but when the advantages outweigh, infrastructure gets created.
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Originally Posted by dark.knight Everything is doable with concerted effort, but I don't see any plans for all the concerted efforts beyond the nice sounding vision statements that will be needed for this to happen. |
Story of India. However, I believe it is different in this case. Because, it won't be the govt. that will drive this change...
Technology is moving so fast - people will be surprised when the change actually happens.
Can you think of the day when there was no internet or mobile phone?