[Kuldeep31]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Apparently, cytokines were responsible for a large % of death of the spanish flu patients. Most had elevated cytokine levels as per google.

So the anti dote is not exactly safe i believe.

IMHO, comorbidity is a big factor. The words 'concoction of cytokines' can be the game changer here. The way things are moving, I hope this development throws open some cracks on an otherwise impermeable surface. Fingers crossed.

[nandadevieast]

Doctors on board, a question for you.

I saw Mr. Bachchan’s tweet about a Lancet study saying that this virus can also spread via Fecal-oral route.

Do you suggest drinking boiled water rather than the municipal water (filtered) because there could be a chance of contamination in pipelines/sever lines. A HK building was sealed because of this kind of suspected contamination.

[hserus]

Originally Posted by nandadevieast

Do you suggest drinking boiled water rather than the municipal water (filtered) because there could be a chance of contamination in pipelines/sever lines. A HK building was sealed because of this kind of suspected contamination.

All sorts of diseases spread through that route (eg from the chaat thelawala not washing his hands after he goes to the toilet and before he makes your panipuri). Fecal contamination is also through sewer pipes in an apartment so sanitize your toilet by washing it down using lysol or pheynle, and use harpic to clean the toilet bowl and seat regularly.

Drinking boiled and cooled water is also an excellent idea as it is getting close to summer and there are plenty of water borne diseases.

With corona also on the prowl we shouldn't forget all the other diseases that occur during an Indian summer and that'd give us severe food poisoning among other things, if we are reduced to a weaker state due to diarrhoea there's a much stronger chance that we can't cope with a corona infection on top of it.

[V.Narayan]

In this month of information and mis-information overload make of this what you may. I don't know enough to comment either way. Others more wired in to mathematical models may be able to opine.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...ign=benshapiro

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

In this month of information and mis-information overload make of this what you may. I don't know enough to comment either way. Others more wired in to mathematical models may be able to opine.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...ign=benshapiro

The news is not correct. He did not walk back on his predictions. He simply said 500,000 will die if "nothing" is done. Since Britain is on lockdown, he says the death count will be 20000 .

I mean, think about it. If 500,000 will die if we do nothing, or if we try and stop it, whats the point of doing anything. If the death count is actually low unlike 1918, it does not mean we panicked, it means the quarantines worked.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...9-predictions/

[dark.knight]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Others more wired in to mathematical models may be able to opine

For even a mathematical model to work, the numbers and variables should be as accurate as possible. To me these are the variables, given that most doctors aren't able to predict how this virus works :

1) Exact number of currently infected.

2) Age groups of currently infected a) 1-10 b) 20-30 c) 30-40 d) 40-50 e) 50-60 f) 60 and above.

3) Mortality of infected people per age group.

Without exact numbers of above 3 variables, its impossible to ascertain facts. Without 1 its impossible to know 2 and 3, and with incorrect data, will come highly exaggerated results.

We were doing a mathematical business model once to ascertain future demand, but we were blown out to the sea wrong, because mathematical modelling is only correct if the pulse (sourcepoint) is correct, otherwise its just astrology.

All that combined with the already existing fact that viral infection behavior can never be predicted even if a trend is there based on a sample size per age group today.

[Turbanator]

A question, why did this not spread so much in China as elsewhere? What did they do differently if we have to accept their numbers?

This is what WHO said in Jan End.

“At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the W.H.O.’s director general, said at a news conference in Geneva. “That doesn’t mean it won’t happen.”
“Make no mistake,” he added. “This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/h...emergency.html

Originally Posted by tsk1979

He did not walk back on his predictions. He simply said 500,000 will die if "nothing" is done. Since Britain is on lockdown, he says the death count will be 20000 .

What an excuse that I believe all such Experts can take, just change a variable and walk back. What’s the use of such models and then spread all over? Just to create a panic.

Old days were far better, someone who is to take a call will call out best experts who will give their opinion based on their work from various years of their life, actually being in that field.

How can someone be so naive not to factor such scenarios, either by force or just be human nature? I can tell you more than half the population would have stayed at their place on own without a lockdown- just due to the fear of it.

We are living humans, not some programmed software that will work as per written code. Sometimes I feel sorry for the present-day decision-makers who have been presented the information from such modern-day Experts!

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by tsk1979

. If the death count is actually low unlike 1918, it does not mean we panicked, it means the quarantines worked.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...9-predictions/

This is one of the the hard part of being a policy maker in these times. After these drastic measures, if you succeed there would be a lot of people who would say " see I told you, it's a seasonal flu and the government panicked unnecessarily". If the measures didn't succeed as much yoh hoped, there would be a lot trying to say, you didn't do enough.

Anyone having doubts on the risks of this outbreak just needs to look at the numbers coming out of Italy and Spain. It is no ordinary flu and it will hit you hard if you under estimate it.

Originally Posted by Turbanator

A question, why did this not spread so much in China as elsewhere? What did they do differently if we have to accept their numbers?

This is what WHO said in Jan End.

“!

In my opinion people who express doubt over China's supposed success already grossly understimate china.

There was an article that GTO shared in this thread before. I will share it again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/h...?smid=fb-share

Are the cases in China really going down?

I know there’s suspicion, but at every testing clinic we went to, people would say, “It’s not like it was three weeks ago.” It peaked at 46,000 people asking for tests a day; when we left, it was 13,000. Hospitals had empty beds.

I didn’t see anything that suggested manipulation of numbers. A rapidly escalating outbreak has plateaued, and come down faster than would have been expected. Back of the envelope, it’s hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.

Is the virus infecting almost everyone, as you would expect a novel flu to?

No — 75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families. And only 5 to 15 percent of your close contacts develop disease. So they try to isolate you from your relatives as quickly as possible, and find everyone you had contact with in 48 hours before that.

You said different cities responded differently. How?

It depended on whether they had zero cases, sporadic ones, clusters or widespread transmissionFirst, you have to make sure everyone knows the basics: hand-washing, masks, not shaking hands, what the symptoms are. Then, to find sporadic cases, they do fever checks everywhere, even stopping cars on highways to check everyone.

As soon as you find clusters, you shut schools, theaters, restaurants. Only Wuhan and the cities near it went into total lockdown.

How did the Chinese reorganize their medical response?

First, they moved 50 percent of all medical care online so people didn’t come in. Have you ever tried to reach your doctor on Friday night? Instead, you contacted one online. If you needed prescriptions like insulin or heart medications, they could prescribe and deliver it.

But if you thought you had coronavirus?

You would be sent to a fever clinic. They would take your temperature, your symptoms, medical history, ask where you’d traveled, your contact with anyone infected. They’d whip you through a CT scan …

Wait — “whip you through a CT scan”?

Each machine did maybe 200 a day. Five, 10 minutes a scan. Maybe even partial scans. A typical hospital in the West does one or two an hour. And not X-rays; they could come up normal, but a CT would show the “ground-glass opacities” they were looking for.

(Dr. Aylward was referring to lung abnormalities seen in coronavirus patients.)

And then?

If you were still a suspect case, you’d get swabbed. But a lot would be told, “You’re not Covid.” People would come in with colds, flu, runny noses. That’s not Covid. If you look at the symptoms, 90 percent have fever, 70 percent have dry coughs, 30 percent have malaise, trouble breathing. Runny noses were only 4 percent.

The swab was for a PCR test, right? How fast could they do that? Until recently, we were sending all of ours to Atlanta.

More importantly

Hospitals were also separated?

Yes. The best hospitals were designated just for Covid, severe and critical. All elective surgeries were postponed. Patients were moved. Other hospitals were designated just for routine care: women still have to give birth, people still suffer trauma and heart attacks.

They built two new hospitals, and they rebuilt hospitals. If you had a long ward, they’d build a wall at the end with a window, so it was an isolation ward with “dirty” and “clean” zones. You’d go in, gown up, treat patients, and then go out the other way and de-gown. It was like an Ebola treatment unit, but without as much disinfection because it’s not body fluids.

How good were the severe and critical care?

China is really good at keeping people alive. Its hospitals looked better than some I see here in Switzerland. We’d ask, “How many ventilators do you have?” They’d say “50.” Wow! We’d say, “How many ECMOs?” They’d say “five.” The team member from the Robert Koch Institute said, “Five? In Germany, you get three, maybe. And just in Berlin.”

(ECMOs are extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines, which oxygenate the blood when the lungs fail.)

Who paid for all of this?

The government made it clear: testing is free. And if it was Covid-19, when your insurance ended, the state picked up everything.

In the U.S., that’s a barrier to speed. People think: “If I see my doctor, it’s going to cost me $100. If I end up in the I.C.U., what’s it going to cost me?” That’ll kill you. That’s what could wreak havoc. This is where universal health care coverage and security intersect. The U.S. has to think this through.

I personally think, people underestimate Chinese. Even in India. We forget they are the factory of the world. They manufacture anything and everything. What was the number of ventilators in India?

A single hospital in Wuhan had 50 of those!

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

What an excuse that I believe all such Experts can take, just change a variable and walk back. What’s the use of such models and then spread all over? Just to create a panic.

Old days were far better, someone who is to take a call will call out best experts who will give their opinion based on their work from various years of their life, actually being in that field.

How can someone be so naive not to factor such scenarios, either by force or just be human nature? I can tell you more than half the population would have stayed at their place on own without a lockdown- just due to the fear of it.

We are living humans, not some programmed software that will work as per written code. Sometimes I feel sorry for the present-day decision-makers who have been presented the information from such modern-day Experts!

Actually, disease projections are very mathematical in nature (though human reaction to those are not). And I did not get your first point. All experts are saying that if extensive forced social distancing is not done, many will die, but if we do this it will save lives. So if a country does quarantines and social distancing (eg Korea), lives will be saved. This is what experts have been saying all along. I do not see any change in the message or walking back.

Its like saying, if you enforce rules of the road, lesser people will die on road accidents. In countries where road accident fatalities are low, we don't say, hey, there are no accidents, so no rules of the road need to be followed.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by tsk1979

And I did not get your first point.

I mean, why is this not spread in China? What have they done differently even though they were first to suffer and with little information including comments by WHO that there are no cases of human-to-human transmission

This is what experts have been saying all along. I do not see any change in the message or walking back.

I mean, the way this guy has changed the numbers. It's a fact that people will stay at home. My Family in Edmonton & my Brother in Calgary, haven't gone out in weeks now. Not sure if there is a lockdown but just for the safety. I am sure many others would have done elsewhere as well.. No one is disputing benefits of the Lockdown/ distancing.

What I am saying is that these guys have conveniently or mistakenly not considered human behaviour, it's only natural that people will take precautions whenever such large calamity happens.

Anyways, hope we all come out of this mess safely and in time.

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

I mean, why is this not spread in China? What have they done differently even though they were first to suffer and with little information including comments by WHO that there are no cases of human-to-human transmission

I cant say anything about china because its a secretive regime. However, Korea went on lockdown, so did Japan. These countries could control numbers.Along with extensive mask wearing (which means you do not spread the virus as easily if you have it) the measures worked. I still feel the world should have gone on a mask manufacturing spree in January.

I mean, the way this guy has changed the numbers. It's a fact that people will stay at home. My Family in Edmonton & my Brother in Calgary, haven't gone out in weeks now. Not sure if there is a lockdown but just for the safety. I am sure many others would have done elsewhere as well. So, what I am saying is that these mathematical, statistical calculations can influence decision-makers. Anyways, hope we all come out of this mess safely and in time.

There is a mathematical model for that too which approximates. Even if 70% of people stay at home, it won't help. 80% or more are needed. That said these are approximations. But in general all of them agree that over 80% of the people need to avoid social contact to prevent the spread.
Social distancing is the only way to stop this till a vaccine comes out.

So depending upon the number of people staying at home, you can make various approximate projections based on probability.

[hondafanboy]

Bill Gates seems to be of the opinion that the entire country ( his) should be shut down in one go to handle this situation effectively and that too for 6-10 weeks. He is also the one who predicted situation like this 5 years ago.

https://in.news.yahoo.com/entire-cou...135717878.html

[murillo]

It looks like we will be in lockdown for more than 3 weeks. In this case, at some point, our family will run out of food stocks at home and must order from a local shop or an online grocer. If someone is willing to home deliver packaged food like atta and vegetables and greens, what are the precautions we must take while taking delivery and after?

I heard some scattered discussions around this on this thread. However, I am sure a comprehensive guide will be helpful.

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

I mean, why is this not spread in China? .

More on China

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Wuhan...ers-49673.html

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by murillo

It looks like we will be in lockdown for more than 3 weeks. In this case, at some point, our family will run out of food stocks at home and must order from a local shop or an online grocer. If someone is willing to home deliver packaged food like atta and vegetables and greens, what are the precautions we must take while taking delivery and after?

I heard some scattered discussions around this on this thread. However, I am sure a comprehensive guide will be helpful.

Order at least a week early, opt for contactless delivery if available. Wear gloves, get the packets and quarantine them (in your attic or loft) for at least a week. This method won't work for perishables, so plan to alter your eating habits for some time.