[carwatcher]

I am really getting jittery seeing the downtrend during past few days. Is it temporary as every expert analyst was sounding positive few days back and now I am reading reasons such as global weakness, etc. which sounds more like a post-mortem analysis.
Can anyone help me in calming my nerves.

Bought 50 ICICI Bank @ 249.35 just a few minutes back.

[Lalvaz]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

I am really getting jittery seeing the downtrend during past few days. Is it temporary as every expert analyst was sounding positive few days back and now I am reading reasons such as global weakness, etc. which sounds more like a post-mortem analysis.
Can anyone help me in calming my nerves.

In my experience, most FII's sell Indian stocks in Nov - Dec. This is the trend nearly every single year for the last many 10-12 years at least. Perhaps it has to do with their year ending, having to show realized profits etc.

Having said that, I feel that there are a lot of positives, which are not being discounted as of now. Commodity prices are at an all time low in many areas, such as crude, metals etc. which have a direct impact on a number of sectors, and most importantly helps in curbing inflation, thereby leading to reduced interest rates, and more spending by governments worldwide in in attempt to kickstart a declining economy.

Sectors that I am bullish on are IT, Pharma, Banking, Hotels & Sugar.
Sectors that I am bearish on are Construction, Infrastructure, Mining, Oil Refining, Cement, Metals, Automobiles.

Of course, all the sectors above have good and bad stocks and you need to do your own research before deciding to enter/exit any particular stock.

Hope this helps in calming you down.

A word of advice, don't pay too much attention to the so called TV experts, their opinions and public comments change with the seasons.

[carwatcher]

Thanks for the reply but I am surprised by your take on Infra sector.
One expert was over-confidently claiming that you won't get LnT at 1350 levels again buy as much as you can and its the best bet in Infra sector and the sector looks promising, I am confused as common sensically Infra is one sector which should remain in demand in a developing country like ours.

[nowwhat?]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

I am really getting jittery seeing the downtrend during past few days. Is it temporary as every expert analyst was sounding positive few days back and now I am reading reasons such as global weakness, etc. which sounds more like a post-mortem analysis.
Can anyone help me in calming my nerves.

Please do not invest in stocks unless you have the stomach to deal with the downside and risk to capital. Some of my stocks lost over 90% of their value in 2008.

You should perhaps try investing in balanced mutual funds to begin with.

Originally Posted by carwatcher

I am confused as common sensically Infra is one sector which should remain in demand in a developing country like ours.

L&T has always been an expensive stock. Even when it makes a loss, it trades at 600+ and when it makes a profit, it becomes very expensive.

Infrastructure is a good sector, no doubt. But it primarily relies on the government not only for policy but also for projects and governments can sometimes be directionless and bad paymasters. Infrastructure is also capital intensive and requires huge working capital which gets tied when the government stops paying bills.

[spookey]

Hello friends , Anyone tracking Exide ? Its trading at yearly lows and valuation looks tempting , Company is almost debt free. What could be the reasons for this under performance ?

[sukhoi]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

I am really getting jittery seeing the downtrend during past few days. Is it temporary as every expert analyst was sounding positive few days back and now I am reading reasons such as global weakness, etc. which sounds more like a post-mortem analysis.
Can anyone help me in calming my nerves.

Originally Posted by nowwhat?

Please do not invest in stocks unless you have the stomach to deal with the downside and risk to capital. Some of my stocks lost over 90% of their value in 2008.

+100 to what @nowhat? has said (feel free to add more zeros) . Am presuming that you are a long term investor, if not then you may ignore the rest of the post.

There would be multiple instances over your investment period when you would see your investments take a beating and stocks would go down but you need to accept that as something that goes with the territory.

Somethings which I generally recommend to people when we talk about beginning investing in the stock market are:
1) Create an emergency fund which could be anywhere between 3 ~ 6 months of your monthly expenses and have that available in a liquid form.
2) Post that only start investing in the markets and that too with surplus money. Surplus money would be the amount over and above your regular expenses and savings / other financial commitments etc.

This way, even if the investments go through a lean period, which they would, you would not panic nor would you be forced to sell at a loss to meet some unplanned financial obligations.

Plus of course what @nowhat? has said that one needs to be strong willed to invest in the markets, it is not for everyone.

Not entirely relevant but still I would recommend reading this article. You would be aware of the things which it would talk about, time in the market more important that timing the market, but still reading it might help you calm down a bit.

Hope this helps

Cheers,
S

[carwatcher]

Thanks for the suggestions and link, yes I am in the market with long term perspective. One thing I have understood from last few posts is that the short-term movements are happening due to various forces in operation and are too much to understand for a small investor. Posts on moneycontrol forum, etc. there must be some industry which is doing it as a full time job like we have PR agencies for bollywood stars and politicians.

Originally Posted by sukhoi

+100 to what @nowhat? has said (feel free to add more zeros) . Am presuming that you are a long term investor, if not then you may ignore the rest of the post.

It would be of immense help if anyone tells the outlook on LnT as this is the only stock in my portfolio which is costing in four digits, so I should hold or any other alternatives (even from other sector is ok).

[nowwhat?]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

Posts on moneycontrol forum, etc. there must be some industry which is doing it as a full time job like we have PR agencies for bollywood stars and politicians.

Yes, there is a full time industry and it is called Mutual Funds. Most of them are situated in Mumbai, some have offices on Dalal Street. Their analysts take part in all analyst calls, visit factories and sometimes warehouses and some of them go golfing with the Board or CEO on weekends. How are you competing with that?

Long time ago, I used to frequent moneycontrol message boards. But that was before I began to wonder what they were smoking considering their irrational exuberance which defied all expectations.

Originally Posted by carwatcher

It would be of immense help if anyone tells the outlook on LnT as this is the only stock in my portfolio which is costing in four digits, so I should hold or any other alternatives (even from other sector is ok).

Why is the price of the stock important to you? If the stock is good and you are convinced it will give say more than the returns from an FD in the long run, it doesn't matter whether it is Rs. 1,000 or Rs. 10.

L&T is a good professionally managed company, but on what basis do you think that it will give you the best returns compared to other stocks? Analysts seem to think that the first green shoots will appear in results from the banking sector, especially private banks like HDFC, Axis and ICICI, so they have loaded up on these stocks. Please note that I have no opinion on L&T, except that you should be sufficiently diversified.

[GTO]

Originally Posted by nowwhat?

Yes, there is a full time industry and it is called Mutual Funds. Most of them are situated in Mumbai, some have offices on Dalal Street. Their analysts take part in all analyst calls, visit factories and sometimes warehouses and some of them go golfing with the Board or CEO on weekends. How are you competing with that?

Agreed. Unless you have the time to monitor your holdings frequently, best to invest in a mutual fund and let the pros handle it for you.

When it comes to stocks, I also invest in Mutual funds, but have a demat account that I use only for IPOs or scripts that catch my eye (e.g. recent Indigo IPO).

[Lalvaz]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

Thanks for the reply but I am surprised by your take on Infra sector.
One expert was over-confidently claiming that you won't get LnT at 1350 levels again buy as much as you can and its the best bet in Infra sector and the sector looks promising, I am confused as common sensically Infra is one sector which should remain in demand in a developing country like ours.

L&T is a good company, but I personally think that the Infrastructure sector will go through more turmoil in 2016 and possibly 2017 as well.

L&T has also seen a lower growth in orders for 2016, More details here:
http://www.financialexpress.com/arti...enging/163170/

I agree with the advice given by other members that if you're a novice to the stock market, you're probably better off investing through a mutual fund. Please however do your due diligence in selecting a good fund, Try and avoid a fund that is sector specific or from one of the weaker fund houses. Stick to HDFC, DSP, SBI, TATA, Quantum, and you should be getting returns more or less in line with the market or a few percentage points +/-

All the best for your investments. I'm glad that you're doing your homework well before taking the plunge.

[S_U_N]

@Vindy: Zen technologies' stock has finally picked up. I am expecting the rally to last quite a bit.

[csateesh]

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

Good call on Indigo! If a company has figured out how to do profitable business and grow in an industry in which most find it very very difficult to do so, that in itself is a competitive advantage and can form a "Moat".

VRL was another great IPO this year. Narayana Hrudayalaya could be another.

Yes Indigo was a great IPO.

Any other good picks for the long run VindyWheels !!

Cheers

[VindyWheels]

Yes, Zen has rewarded well. I had bought at Rs 27 in Oct 2014. The decision was difficult at that time as the stock price was Rs 5 in Jan 2014. I had to conquer heavy price anchoring bias to buy after seeing it go up 5 times

About the rally continuing I have no idea. These are times when you have to be careful. The company is yet to deliver in terms of getting new orders and growing its revenue and profits. The price has gone up too high too fast.

Originally Posted by S_U_N

@Vindy: Zen technologies' stock has finally picked up. I am expecting the rally to last quite a bit.

Hi Sateesh,

Have a look at PI Industries. I had first written about PI here in Nov 2013 when the price was 212. Today even at Rs 730 it looks like a interesting long term story. The CSM order book at nearly 4000 Cr gives great visibility.

I had written about Canfin in this thread in July 2013 when the price was Rs 125 and even at current price of Rs 1000 it looks like a decent growth story.

Also have a look at Jubilant Lifescience and Avanti feed for the medium term. Have to track them closely though.

The above are not recommendations in any way. Just a suggestion to explore them, understand the business and see if you can build conviction in the long term story. I may be biased due to my investments in them.

Originally Posted by csateesh

Yes Indigo was a great IPO.

Any other good picks for the long run VindyWheels !!

Cheers

[S_U_N]

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

Yes, Zen has rewarded well. I had bought at Rs 27 in Oct 2014. The decision was difficult at that time as the stock price was Rs 5 in Jan 2014. I had to conquer heavy price anchoring bias to buy after seeing it go up 5 times

About the rally continuing I have no idea. These are times when you have to be careful. The company is yet to deliver in terms of getting new orders and growing its revenue and profits. The price has gone up too high too fast.

Yes. That is a bit of a risk in general terms. I have seen that with Nath BIO earlier. Now that stock is down after a quick run up.

According to Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group, it seems to me that investing in commodity (or stocks dealing with those) can be rewarding in the future. Maybe the stocks are at good discounts right now?

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/....asp?str=29733

I had invested in Tata Steel when it was around 400 and wondering if I should add more at the current levels.