Do you play the stock market

tsk1979 · 27th October 2008, 15:29

I think the title of this thread should be changed to
"Is the stock market playing with you

"

PatienceWins · 27th October 2008, 16:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by penpavan

Maybe, you need to relook at the latest NAVs.

I know the latest NAVs. In good old days I was having profit of around 110%, now loss of 20%. I have been booking profits.

given2fly · 28th October 2008, 11:38

Folks,

I am waiting to see the outcome of US elections. Anything before that and it wouldn't be wise to invest in the market. Because you have someone who is perceived as Pro-India (business wise) and someone otherwise. So markets may react sharply to the other person winning and Indian industries being a possible distant hit. That is my take on all this untoward happenings around.

ravibhat · 28th October 2008, 22:00

Well its very difficult to analyze the market but considerring few past data and present scenario few thoughts:

Keeping at least 1 year in mind: Bharti AirTel, RIL, RPL, L&T, Union Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, BHEL etc.. good ones. Expect 2 to 3 times earnings in 1 year. (Please keep in mind shares can correct another 20%) But If we buy 20 to 30% of the our cash limit once we can buy further when share corrects.

Market will start correnting again in couple of days and will botom out in 1 week time. If that happens then Expect November will be great month to pullback around 3200+ levels in Nifty. December will see roller coaster ride because of year end and USA elections. I feel by January 2009 thigns will start settling down! If that happens expect huge huge rally in 2009, Sensex can cross 15000 by 2009 end.

Regards,

Ravi.

Sudipto-S-Team · 1st November 2008, 08:15

Before making such sweeping comments and predictions about specific stocks and indices, one should give the rationale for those comments and justify why one is saying all this.
One should also use correct technical words, if at all one wants to use them. For example, "earnings growth" means rise in profits of a company, not a rise in the stock price, as the author above seems to suggest.
Of course seasoned investors don't take such advice with any amount of seriousness, some unsuspecting newbies might lose serious money on the basis of such sweeping and unsubstantiated comments.
We are going through a time when some people in the stock market are killing themselves (sometimes along with other members of their family) for predictions gone wrong. I think as a mark of respect towards those departed souls, we should stop making such careless comments and predictions about the future of the market.

mjothi · 1st November 2008, 08:28

@sudipto-S-Team
I agree your statement. But its not true always.
Remember the famous Warren Buffet? He quotes several times that he think not like a techie or fundamental guys, but as a normal end user. One example I remember is, "I know that people will shave for ever and so I buy gillette". Simple, right?

So, if you could understand the business and its application, it is still possible to forget those numbers and get good profit.

Its the price of buy that determines the profit and not the price of sell that matters.

In the end, as he also puts, buy the business and not the stocks. Then you can reduce the chance of loss.

I am sure by now you would have guessed that I am a end user, not a technical or fundamental analysis guy

Sudipto-S-Team · 1st November 2008, 08:42

Jothi
The Gillette example is a different issue altogether. Buffet doesn't comment about the movement of individual stock prices. He talks about businesses and he is not a speculator and doesn't buy a stock for one year or two years or even five years or ten years - he buys when he thinks the price is cheaper than the intrinsic value and sells when he thinks the price is higher than the value. He knows the difference between price and value.
And in any case I don't think our friend here is quite in the Warren Buffet league

.
I think he is just inspired by the shooting from the hip culture being promoted by some TV channels' commentators (some of them are being probed by SEBI).

spadival · 3rd November 2008, 10:30

Guys, Anyone here has had any success redeeming 6.75% Tax free US64 bonds? I have a certificate which has already matured on 1st June 2008. I did a Google search to find out - All I got was complaints from people who haven't got their redemption cheques !! I don't want to join that queue!!

given2fly · 3rd November 2008, 12:11

I am waiting in the wings to have a look at the US election outcome and its impact on Sensex. Since Obama is largely perceived to be anti-Indian, we could see a serious downward spiral after the results are out. That is where I believe the true opportunity to enter the market comes. Until then, in my opinion, it is not wise to comment or invest either.

ravibhat · 3rd November 2008, 20:54

I feel Market is reaching resistance levels now and I expect decline from present level. But lets hope it takes support at 2500 or 2200 levels.

Regards,

Ravi.

jagan0677 · 3rd November 2008, 23:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravibhat

I feel Market is reaching resistance levels now and I expect decline from present level. But lets hope it takes support at 2500 or 2200 levels.

Regards,

Ravi.

Forgive me for being very pessimistic. Even if we were to test / bottom at such levels, i have a feeling any upside for the NIFTY / SENSEX from there would still fall short of inflation during the same period. Like, I guess, inspite of high inflation rate during April - July this year,i dont see anything surprising if we see double-digit inflation numbers same period this coming year,again.

Aside from D-Street, I am surprised at the way RBI has been reacting to this crisis of late. I dont see a point in cutting rates so much. Thoughts, please?
Also, what do the currency gurus see in the Rupee's future??

Cheers

SLK · 4th November 2008, 01:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by jagan0677

Forgive me for being very pessimistic. Even if we were to test / bottom at such levels, i have a feeling any upside for the NIFTY / SENSEX from there would still fall short of inflation during the same period. Like, I guess, inspite of high inflation rate during April - July this year,i dont see anything surprising if we see double-digit inflation numbers same period this coming year,again.

If stock market falls b'coz of liquidity crisis, inflation falls - i can't give you a direct correlation between the two but the inflation in India is due to excess liquidity/buying power [that is why RBI had increased those rates earlier]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jagan0677

Aside from D-Street, I am surprised at the way RBI has been reacting to this crisis of late. I dont see a point in cutting rates so much. Thoughts, please?
Also, what do the currency gurus see in the Rupee's future??
Cheers

RBI is finally doing the right thing! - increasing rates so much in a growing economy was HURTING too bad [to the manufacturing sector - which is capital intensive], and the liquidity problem worsened it, so RBI turned around and kept growth their 1st priority! - [I think they mantioned this fact (growth priority) in their latest annual credit policy]

Rupee's future? - It would be speculation to say anything as of now! - but if the FIIs stop pulling out of Indian markets the rates would/should start going the other-way round.

[PS: I'm no economist]

aZa · 4th November 2008, 01:37

Yes RBI is doing the right thing ... decreasing these rates will bring in tons of liquidity in the market. This the MOST WANTED stuff right now.

ok how about some tips on what stock to buy ? i'm looking at CEMENT and STEEL. Is this sector good to invest ? My portfolio is currently spread over banking and IT sector. I can stay for 2-2.5 years.

sanjaymugur · 4th November 2008, 11:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravibhat

I feel Market is reaching resistance levels now and I expect decline from present level. But lets hope it takes support at 2500 or 2200 levels.

Regards,

Ravi.

sir, r u a technical analyst, ur support levels,2200/2500 pretty much indicate what some technical analysts have been saying...

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ravibhat · 4th November 2008, 14:17

I am neither expert nor technical analyst.

Based on what I read and studied this is what I understood:

Nifty resistance at 3100 and support seen around 2850. Because of USA elections market is volatile today and downtrend is expected. There is all possibility that it might break 2850 levels in coming days. This is like wait and watch situation.

Regards,

Ravi.

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27th October 2008, 15:29	#826
tsk1979 Team-BHP Support Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: San Jose, CA Posts: 23,717 Thanked: 22,825 Times View My Garage	I think the title of this thread should be changed to "Is the stock market playing with you "
	() Thanks

28th October 2008, 11:38	#828
given2fly BHPian Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Pune Posts: 213 Thanked: 0 Times	Folks, I am waiting to see the outcome of US elections. Anything before that and it wouldn't be wise to invest in the market. Because you have someone who is perceived as Pro-India (business wise) and someone otherwise. So markets may react sharply to the other person winning and Indian industries being a possible distant hit. That is my take on all this untoward happenings around.
	() Thanks

28th October 2008, 22:00	#829
ravibhat Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Bangalore Posts: 2,256 Thanked: 37 Times View My Garage	Well its very difficult to analyze the market but considerring few past data and present scenario few thoughts: Keeping at least 1 year in mind: Bharti AirTel, RIL, RPL, L&T, Union Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, BHEL etc.. good ones. Expect 2 to 3 times earnings in 1 year. (Please keep in mind shares can correct another 20%) But If we buy 20 to 30% of the our cash limit once we can buy further when share corrects. Market will start correnting again in couple of days and will botom out in 1 week time. If that happens then Expect November will be great month to pullback around 3200+ levels in Nifty. December will see roller coaster ride because of year end and USA elections. I feel by January 2009 thigns will start settling down! If that happens expect huge huge rally in 2009, Sensex can cross 15000 by 2009 end. Regards, Ravi. Last edited by ravibhat : 28th October 2008 at 22:01.
	() Thanks

1st November 2008, 08:15	#830
Sudipto-S-Team Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Kolkata Posts: 1,320 Thanked: 290 Times View My Garage	Before making such sweeping comments and predictions about specific stocks and indices, one should give the rationale for those comments and justify why one is saying all this. One should also use correct technical words, if at all one wants to use them. For example, "earnings growth" means rise in profits of a company, not a rise in the stock price, as the author above seems to suggest. Of course seasoned investors don't take such advice with any amount of seriousness, some unsuspecting newbies might lose serious money on the basis of such sweeping and unsubstantiated comments. We are going through a time when some people in the stock market are killing themselves (sometimes along with other members of their family) for predictions gone wrong. I think as a mark of respect towards those departed souls, we should stop making such careless comments and predictions about the future of the market.
	() Thanks

1st November 2008, 08:28	#831
mjothi Senior - BHPian Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Bangalore Posts: 3,287 Thanked: 231 Times View My Garage	@sudipto-S-Team I agree your statement. But its not true always. Remember the famous Warren Buffet? He quotes several times that he think not like a techie or fundamental guys, but as a normal end user. One example I remember is, "I know that people will shave for ever and so I buy gillette". Simple, right? So, if you could understand the business and its application, it is still possible to forget those numbers and get good profit. Its the price of buy that determines the profit and not the price of sell that matters. In the end, as he also puts, buy the business and not the stocks. Then you can reduce the chance of loss. I am sure by now you would have guessed that I am a end user, not a technical or fundamental analysis guy
	() Thanks

1st November 2008, 08:42	#832
Sudipto-S-Team Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Kolkata Posts: 1,320 Thanked: 290 Times View My Garage	Jothi The Gillette example is a different issue altogether. Buffet doesn't comment about the movement of individual stock prices. He talks about businesses and he is not a speculator and doesn't buy a stock for one year or two years or even five years or ten years - he buys when he thinks the price is cheaper than the intrinsic value and sells when he thinks the price is higher than the value. He knows the difference between price and value. And in any case I don't think our friend here is quite in the Warren Buffet league . I think he is just inspired by the shooting from the hip culture being promoted by some TV channels' commentators (some of them are being probed by SEBI).
	() Thanks

3rd November 2008, 10:30	#833
spadival Senior - BHPian Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Melbourne, AU Posts: 1,773 Thanked: 26 Times View My Garage	How to redeem US64 bonds? Guys, Anyone here has had any success redeeming 6.75% Tax free US64 bonds? I have a certificate which has already matured on 1st June 2008. I did a Google search to find out - All I got was complaints from people who haven't got their redemption cheques !! I don't want to join that queue!!
	() Thanks

3rd November 2008, 12:11	#834
given2fly BHPian Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Pune Posts: 213 Thanked: 0 Times	I am waiting in the wings to have a look at the US election outcome and its impact on Sensex. Since Obama is largely perceived to be anti-Indian, we could see a serious downward spiral after the results are out. That is where I believe the true opportunity to enter the market comes. Until then, in my opinion, it is not wise to comment or invest either.
	() Thanks

3rd November 2008, 20:54	#835
ravibhat Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Bangalore Posts: 2,256 Thanked: 37 Times View My Garage	I feel Market is reaching resistance levels now and I expect decline from present level. But lets hope it takes support at 2500 or 2200 levels. Regards, Ravi.
	() Thanks

4th November 2008, 01:37	#838
aZa Senior - BHPian Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Noida / Delhi Posts: 1,595 Thanked: 21 Times View My Garage	Yes RBI is doing the right thing ... decreasing these rates will bring in tons of liquidity in the market. This the MOST WANTED stuff right now. ok how about some tips on what stock to buy ? i'm looking at CEMENT and STEEL. Is this sector good to invest ? My portfolio is currently spread over banking and IT sector. I can stay for 2-2.5 years.
	() Thanks

4th November 2008, 14:17	#840
ravibhat Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Bangalore Posts: 2,256 Thanked: 37 Times View My Garage	I am neither expert nor technical analyst. Based on what I read and studied this is what I understood: Nifty resistance at 3100 and support seen around 2850. Because of USA elections market is volatile today and downtrend is expected. There is all possibility that it might break 2850 levels in coming days. This is like wait and watch situation. Regards, Ravi.
	() Thanks