[BaCkSeAtDrIVeR]

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

And I will not rebuke anyone, even if the answer is elementary... I just need participation. At this rate, I can just call up SDP on the phone and explain it all. No need to type out things

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

No responses. Discontinuing.

Sorry for not continuing.

Hey, give us time - this is not a chat session over IRC / Yahoo messenger. Your question was posted sometime 9.30 PM yesterday, I am logging only at 8 PM today. And you already gave up?

Aw!!!

[anand_saraf]

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

The Holy Grail of trading systems would be a system that gives the following statistics.

Winning % --- 70 %
Win/ Loss ratio 2:1

Now, I need a few answers from people just reading here, without comments.
Tell me, whats the missing element in the above statistics?
If I get less than 15 answers, I will not continue, and I mean it

And I will not rebuke anyone, even if the answer is elementary... I just need participation. At this rate, I can just call up SDP on the phone and explain it all. No need to type out things

I guess the amount of leverage (or funds) would be a big element. No point having that kind of ratio with small amount of funds. That's because the other missing element would be the margin - you do more trades but at slimmer margins and so volumes/quantum required to make it worthwhile.

Cheers

[AjiGTI]

My guess is that the missing element is the quantum of loss/profit. One may win as per the % above however if the system do not signal at the right time then the above statistics is not useful. Hence I think the timing is important. (eg: signals late for loss booking where by increasing the amount of loss)

[SDP]

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

Derivatives are actually a very dangerous tool, if you get carried away with leverage, and the horror stories that you might be hearing are almost all true, because there is no one to stop a person from putting on a highly leveraged trade. If you have the money, you can. No prequalifiers.

Think, if you had the money to set up a clinic, would you become a doctor overnight?


....

A proper trading plan includes almost 2 pages of questions to be answered in detail.
All people do is, " Kya lagta hai... uper jayega? " and jump in. Translated from hindi, it means, " Do you think it will go up? " and go long

Hi Altaf, Munnabhai (yours truely) opened his clinic (i.e. enabled derivatives) yesterday and did the first surgery today (shorted one lot on Nifty) .

Since I do not understand technical analysis yet, the call was based on pure gut-feel (Lagta hain, nichche jayega). I was lucky today in 2 very small time-windows and managed to catch 50 points when I squared off around 3pm .

Today was a exceptionally volatile day and even if I would have taken a exactly opposite call in the morning, at some point during the day, I would have still been lucky. Such it goes.

Hope you re-start the tutorial soon so that people like me would have something more than luck on their side.

[recshenoy]

a system which wins 70% of times with win to loss ratio of 2:1 doesn't mean one makes profit IMO. if the winning amount is small and losing amount is more then, EOD you are still making loss with a system who's prediction is fairly good. So I guess system should be able to have stop loss calculation.

PS: Altaf , SDP, can i join you guys one to one call through conf call

[Altaf Petiwala]

Originally Posted by SDP

Hi Altaf, Munnabhai (yours truely) opened his clinic (i.e. enabled derivatives) yesterday and did the first surgery today (shorted one lot on Nifty) .

Since I do not understand technical analysis yet, the call was based on pure gut-feel (Lagta hain, nichche jayega). I was lucky today in 2 very small time-windows and managed to catch 50 points when I squared off around 3pm .

Today was a exceptionally volatile day and even if I would have taken a exactly opposite call in the morning, at some point during the day, I would have still been lucky. Such it goes.

Hope you re-start the tutorial soon so that people like me would have something more than luck on their side.

Please dear, dont be so rash in trading.

You just took delivery of your Ferrari and let he rip at max revs within the first 5 kms. Would you do that?

Then WHY are you trading derivatives in such a volatile environment?
This particular time, when volatility is so high, is the time when even we, so called experienced traders, also step back and just enjoy the view.

Gut feeling may help you to make some money, but ultimately it will drive you out of this business.

Also, do check your contract note, as the brokerage will be extremely high, unless you have negotiated it before.

As regards the reply by recshenoy: Winning % of 70 % means that you make money in 7 out of 10 trades. Win loss ratio of 2:1 means you make 200 rs for every 100 rs loss making trade. So, what you are mentioning is already mentioned in point number 2.

I am still waiting for the 15 answers to pile up before answering the question.

Also, SDP, my friend, I hope you desist from derivatives before you know whats involved.

[SDP]

^^^
Altaf, point taken, would be more diligent going forward. Thanks for looking out for me. BTW my total brokerage was 235 Rs for the round-trip. It is basically 2.5 paise per side and seems like it is the same for intraday. Its definitely on the higher side. Is it too high?

I believe 5-6 people have already attempted to answer the question that you have put. This being a Indian car community, and there not being a very strong corelation between cars and stocks-trading, may be 15 replies is a stretched target. At the same time, on TBHP, the ratio of logged in members to guests is typically 1:10. That mean at least 50-60 more people are following this thread but not able to comment because of not being members.

Request you to reconsider your position. Thanks - SDP

[SDP]

I believe we have lost Altaf (unless he is busy catching 150-200 points per day on Nifty-Futures since last 4 days).

Somehow this thread has not been able to interest proper traders for long. If anybody has browsed through the 120 odd pages, initially it was ECM, then Altar-Ego and now Altaf, who had been active for a few days and then left the thread for good. May be they don't find enough like-minded folks on this thread/forum. Anyways, let's move on.

I was checking out traderji dot com and for a while considered becoming a member. But the lack of good moderators and pages teeming with ads put me off. Any other forums that some of you guys might be frequenting for discussion on stocks?

[carboy]

Originally Posted by SDP

I believe we have lost Altaf (unless he is busy catching 150-200 points per day on Nifty-Futures since last 4 days).

Somehow this thread has not been able to interest proper traders for long. If anybody has browsed through the 120 odd pages, initially it was ECM, then Altar-Ego and now Altaf, who had been active for a few days and then left the thread for good. May be they don't find enough like-minded folks on this thread/forum. Anyways, let's move on.

I was checking out traderji dot com and for a while considered becoming a member. But the lack of good moderators and pages teeming with ads put me off. Any other forums that some of you guys might be frequenting for discussion on stocks?

E Investing India - Online Community for Investors and Traders is a decent forum. It's relatively low traffic though. The moderator is the main answerer of more than 50% of the questions. The forum has posts in all areas - fundamental analysis, technical analysis, trading, investing, IPOs.

[Altaf Petiwala]

Still here, busy setting up systems for clients actually.

Traderji is a useless site, except for some threads that have genuine info.
The other forum mentioned is as good as dead. Only some basic stuff mentioned there. But at least its not a tipsters den like traderji

As for catching the 150 to 200 point falls, daily, have been successful in capturing only a small part of the trend, at max 30 % of every fall. Even yesterday, went short and covered at 45 points profit.. did not expect the market to fall 200 points from the top, but hey thats where we all fail, by using our brains during market hours.

The less you think, the more you earn.... thats the maxim for traders. Unfortunately, I am still human, and do err from time to time.

Have stopped drinking tea and coffee, will switch to motor oil from yesterday, as thats what a robot would need to drink to execute his system flawlessly.

Moral of story, do all your thinking off market hours. During market hours, just follow your trading system.

Would have made a whole lot of more money yesterday had I done that. But as I said, I am human.

[kalpeshc]

Try theequitydesk.com - amazing for fundamental analysis and long term investing. Not for traders.

[SDP]

Thanks Carboy and KalpeshC for the suggestions. Would definitely try out the forums/sites you mentioned.

Welcome back Altaf.

With 5700 squashed, where's the next support for Nifty?

Surprisingly Suzlon hasn't corrected much in the 2 days of savage fall. Is it just because of the stake-sell rumour or is there something else concrete?

[Altaf Petiwala]

Originally Posted by SDP

Thanks Carboy and KalpeshC for the suggestions. Would definitely try out the forums/sites you mentioned.

Welcome back Altaf.

With 5700 squashed, where's the next support for Nifty?

Surprisingly Suzlon hasn't corrected much in the 2 days of savage fall. Is it just because of the stake-sell rumour or is there something else concrete?

I dont believe in support and resistance too much, as because if it did work, then why did support of 5750 break?
If price bounces from a certain level, maybe 2 or 3 times, people give that place meaning. But when there is a deluge of orders, all levels are just sliced through.

I personally know about 5 trades who took really big losses when 5750 was broken on the downside, as they were expecting a bounce from that level.

Their quantities were in excess of between 3000 to 10,000 Nifty each.

Then there is also the school that says that if a support is tested 2 or 3 times, it eventually breaks. So, are we supposed to go long on the second test of the level, or the third? And if we do take a loss, do we attempt to go long or short on the 4th test? all crap.

As for Suzlon, I can just about track Nifty, and I am no good with companies. Truthfully.

[rishab.k]

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

Winning % --- 70 %
Win/ Loss ratio 2:1

It doesn't take into account the amount of money won or lost in each trade.

[Altaf Petiwala]

Originally Posted by rishab.k

It doesn't take into account the amount of money won or lost in each trade.

Thats what the win/ loss ratio is... its mentioned as 2:1... meaning that you earn 200 rs for every 100 rs you loose.

Thats not whats missing.