[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Nalin1

Among all the local residents and tourists, only the two of us looked like idiots wearing masks .

Originally Posted by am1m

But what strikes me is the huge discrepancy between what is being discussed on this thread and the ground reality.

Way back in this same thread, to be safe it was suggested to avoid 3C - Closed spaces, Crowded places & Closed-contact settings. A combination of all these 3 settings will make it worse. The key here is a Covid+ person must be present here for a considerable time - say at least 15 minutes or more for the infection to spread. Note these are without masks. Adding masks into the equation will further delay or help in avoiding getting a sufficient load of the virus to get infected.

If the Covid+ person is not in the setting, nobody gets infected. Since we do not know who is infected or not, we avoid such settings and take precautions by wearing masks.

Typically, rural folks spend more time in open, their closed spaces are ventilated (ie windows open), they hardly meet new/unknown folks and overall crowded places are less and even crowd density is less. So chances of infection is also very less (but not zero).

From the daily highs of 90K+ infections, we have come down to 15K+ new infections in our country. So new infections are going down. Testing is widespread and infection is quickly caught. Hence there is less chance of an outbreak (but can't rule out one - so take care ).

Ref:

Originally Posted by am1m

But to claim in an article like this that 'nearly everyone in India is wearing masks' is so out of touch with the ground reality!

Isn't it so? I think everyone in India has at least one mask. They might not wear it all the time and if they wear it in risky settings, it is good enough.

[pandey.jai]

Originally Posted by Nalin1

Among all the local residents and tourists, only the two of us looked like idiots wearing masks .

This is good. From the spread of virus standpoint, to the folks in the village, you two are/could potentially be the source of spreading the virus. You can think of the village as a bubble - they're safe in their bubble, while external entities like you took basic precautions by wearing masks that reduced the likelihood of the spread of the virus in that village/community.

Originally Posted by msdivy

Isn't it so? I think everyone in India has at least one mask. They might not wear it all the time and if they wear it in risky settings, it is good enough.

I agree with this part. I've not seen or been to various public events that we see, on the ground, where we see the normal interaction between people (grocery stores for instance), everyone has a mask on. Some protection is better than nothing, I would imagine.

[rohitoasis]

If i may ask, how would one define a situation like a traffic jam or a traffic signal for someone riding a two wheeler. You are stuck with scores of people. We do not know how the propagation would differ between a windy day or a tropical climate.

I was in similar situation in Coimbatore city and was surprised that less than 1% of the people i saw were wearing masks. In my hometown of Palakkad, i am not sure what the situation is in the town, but from the vantage point of my house which is next to the highway, i see barely 1% without the mask.
Am i wrong in believing that these close proximities are also dangerous. What is the likelihood that i could have encountered asymptomatic carriers in these traffic signals. These are people going on with their livelihood, popping in pills when they see a normal cold or cough. Not caring to believe these common symptoms are all they could have.

Another Moral dilemma i have been facing is this question which comes in the apps like Zomato and Swiggy where they ask if the rider was wearing a mask or not. While the ones at my hometown are mostly always wearing a mask when i see them. I do not have to play with my conscience answering this question. The two or three opportunities i ordered at Coimbatore none were wearing a mask. I was not sure if i answer this question in negative, these poor guys would lose their livelihood. I spent a whole lot of time worrying about this question on those days.

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by msdivy

A combination of all these 3 settings will make it worse. The key here is a Covid+ person must be present here for a considerable time - say at least 15 minutes or more for the infection to spread. Note these are without masks. Adding masks into the equation will further delay or help in avoiding getting a sufficient load of the virus to get infected.
...
...
Typically, rural folks spend more time in open, their closed spaces are ventilated (ie windows open), they hardly meet new/unknown folks and overall crowded places are less and even crowd density is less. So chances of infection is also very less (but not zero).

From the daily highs of 90K+ infections, we have come down to 15K+ new infections in our country. So new infections are going down. Testing is widespread and infection is quickly caught. Hence there is less chance of an outbreak (but can't rule out one - so take care ).

If it was so strict a condition required for spreading, why do you think the sero surveys are pointing to a more than 45% number? And this is across multiple states, including those that are predominantly rural. In many of the villages in Karnataka, 44% are reported to have antibodies, again as per sero surveys. Across the world, which have very low population densities, around 6 to 7 lakh new cases are reported *every single day*. I personally know some people who have got it (with minor symptoms) inspite of all precautions, and they don't even have a clue how they caught it. So I don't agree with you that spreading is difficult.

Testing is widespread in India? We're still testing a lowly 10 lakh daily, in a population of 140 crore people. So many escape whatever little is remaining of contact tracing. I personally believe infections are down, simply because we're slowly reaching herd immunity.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Tpically, rural folks spend more time in open, their closed spaces are ventilated (ie windows open), they hardly meet new/unknown folks and overall crowded places are less and even crowd density is less. So chances of infection is also very less (but not zero).

Isn't it so? I think everyone in India has at least one mask. They might not wear it all the time and if they wear it in risky settings, it is good enough.

Originally Posted by pandey.jai

TYou can think of the village as a bubble - they're safe in their bubble, while external entities like you took basic precautions by wearing masks that reduced the likelihood of the spread of the virus in that village/community.

Some protection is better than nothing, I would imagine.

Well, I can only speak about the couple of villages and towns I've been to and stayed at the past few months and based on that, i'd say you guys have the wrong idea about villages and towns being in a 'bubble'.

There are people from everywhere passing through. Almost everyone congregates at the bus station and single main road. The markets and village shops and eateries are crowded with people sitting in close proximity. Since transport options are limited, every share auto and bus is full. If you guys think that is a bubble then...

I'm not trying to say it is wrong or right, and certainly not trying to signal that i was doing something great by being the only person wearing a mask. (We've had enough of that going on with people blaming others and pointing out what they consider risky while happily doing stuff that is risky themselves! ) Just saying that most of us on this thread perhaps don't have a real idea of how things are going wrt the progression of this pandemic outside of our immediate surroundings and are drawing inferences based on the media who are equally clueless!

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

... I personally believe infections are down, simply because we're slowly reaching herd immunity.

How are you defining herd immunity? How many infections and deaths per day happen in herd immunity?

How many recent cases of polio have you heard of? That's herd immunity. Covid is not even on that screen.

[srishiva]

Just back after new year stay at a resort. Other than keeping hands clean, nothing else was practiced. It was not possible. Restaurants on highway are full. Is the virus really everywhere?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/22/a...ntl/index.html

People are worried about a new X disease. Something as infectious and spreading around world as covid but having fatality of 50 to 90% as ebola

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by rohitoasis

If i may ask, how would one define a situation like a traffic jam or a traffic signal for someone riding a two wheeler. You are stuck with scores of people. We do not know how the propagation would differ between a windy day or a tropical climate.

I would consider it low risk unless one is right in the path of someone sneezing or coughing badly. The chance of picking up the infection is high if that person is +ve.

Another Moral dilemma i have been facing is this question which comes in the apps like Zomato and Swiggy where they ask if the rider was wearing a mask or not. While the ones at my hometown are mostly always wearing a mask when i see them. I do not have to play with my conscience answering this question. The two or three opportunities i ordered at Coimbatore none were wearing a mask. I was not sure if i answer this question in negative, these poor guys would lose their livelihood. I spent a whole lot of time worrying about this question on those days.

In the interest of public safety & business, their organization has mandated certain guidelines. If the employee is not following them, then it must be reported. In case you report, there is a high chance of educating the employee and very low of firing, if it is 1st mistake.

Originally Posted by am1m

Just saying that most of us on this thread perhaps don't have a real idea of how things are going wrt the progression of this pandemic outside of our immediate surroundings and are drawing inferences based on the media who are equally clueless!

That's right. To understand the progression, will require more data & subsequent macro analysis. It will take one or two years, if not more. What we are doing is at the micro-level - understanding the virus characteristics and deduct how it could have propagated.

Originally Posted by PearlJam

If it was so strict a condition required for spreading, why do you think the sero surveys are pointing to a more than 45% number?

Yes this needs understanding. Considering the stigma attached to testing +ve, I hope the volunteers' selection was random & precise, including symptomatic, asymptotic, recovered -ve, and uninfected -ve cases.
(This is akin to election exit polls, which is also a sample survey and most get it wrong. I could take it with pinch of salt now and will be glad if it found to be correct with further data analysis).

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

How are you defining herd immunity? How many infections and deaths per day happen in herd immunity?

How many recent cases of polio have you heard of? That's herd immunity. Covid is not even on that screen.

You missed my key point - that we're slowly reaching herd immunity . And, herd immunity could be reached by vaccination too.

We all know the standard definition of herd immunity, and the target number is around 70-80% as per that definition. However, there are articles that hypothesize that, the percentage required to reach herd immunity could be much lesser (this was probably discussed earlier in this thread too):

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20160762v3
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/h...-immunity.html

Even if you take the above with a pinch of salt and give a much wider margin of error, the upcoming vaccinations easily have the potential to ramp up this number well above 45%. (Though it beats me, as to how will vaccinations significantly help us in India, with fatality rate already so low - but that's another topic).

The latest serosurveys in India peg the percentage of people with antibodies, at around 40-45%. I already mentioned earlier that active cases are down from around 10 lakhs to 2.7 lakhs, positivity rate is down to around 2.1%. Fatality rate, including for those above 60 years of age, is significantly down, though not at "polio" levels. All this, inspite of festivals, events, protests, etc. We all know that the spread is not linear - as the %age with antibodies go up, the spread slows down. And we haven't even accounted for T-cells. Again, I'm stressing "slowly reaching".

So if the SARS-CoV-2 does not mutate, there's a good chance that it will ultimately become like "Polio".

It's also possible that the virus keeps mutating significantly, every year, rendering the antibodies (and vaccination) useless after a few month/years. Even in that case, as we've seen the numbers from a few months ago, Infection fatality rate (IFR) was already around 0.10-0.20% (and will be definitely lesser today). That number takes it directly to the flu territory, that we have all accepted over the years without even batting an eyelid (450000 to 750000 die from the flu worldwide every year, as per WHO). So, if the Covid virus keeps mutating, and IFR remains around 0.10%, I will be reasonably happy and satisfied.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

How are you defining herd immunity? How many infections and deaths per day happen in herd immunity?

How many recent cases of polio have you heard of? That's herd immunity. Covid is not even on that screen.

Originally Posted by PearlJam

We all know the standard definition of herd immunity...

When we talk herd immunity, we should look local. Specific locations/regions achieve herd immunity, not entire countries.

For example, Dharavi the world's biggest slum cluster in Mumbai which was the worst affected hotspot back in July is seeing zero or low single digit Covid figures for couple of weeks now.

A sero survey taken in Mumbai slums in November showed a whopping 75% sero-positivity.

Obviously same place is now showing low numbers. Only herd immunity can explain this, though politicians will take the credit for it.

A country as a whole may never get to herd immunity as there will be some regions where threshold is not achieved and Covid will spread.

Countries are artificial social constructs which neither Sars-Cov-2 nor epidemiology respects.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Good points.

Originally Posted by PearlJam

You missed my key point - that we're slowly reaching herd immunity . And, herd immunity could be reached by vaccination too.

Sure! I don't disagree with slowly reaching. It's very good to see figures dropping from thousands to hundreds over in this corner of India. I really hope that you are right

I very much wonder when the vaccine will reach us. I worry about being an "early adopter," and my wife says she won't be among the first batches, even though age may qualify her. I feel it is important that people don't wait: this is a community thing as much an individual thing. But she is not going going to say yes just because I think so.

Anyway, we are going to have other countries, who are vaccinating right now, ahead of us, although it might be different vaccines.

You may find it hard to believe (I'm a grumpy old man!) but I am cautiously optimistic for India. Not so much for my mother country: UK seems to be having a very hard time of it now.

[adrian]

6 cases of mutant virus reported in Kerala.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/covi...states-2347661

[Gansan]

If we look objectively at the current number of Covid mortalities in India, probably as many or more people die from ANY given disease everyday.

When I look around me in my apartment complex, I see many elderly people feeling depressed. Including my parents. My 80 year old mother regularly visited a couple of nearby temples and looked in on a few of her friends on the way back. Cooped up at home since March, she is missing her circle. She misses not seeing my brother and his family. He lives nearby but does not go out anywhere due to his CABG surgery one year back. His wife and son also follow suit to minimise the chance of infection for him. All three of them wish to avoid any risk to my 80 plus year old parents and make only video calls, or visit occasionally but talk to them through the window without coming inside.

My mother has started wondering aloud what is the point of living like this. She says she wants to resume her normal life, and if it is time for her to go, she got to go.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Gansan

My mother has started wondering aloud what is the point of living like this. She says she wants to resume her normal life, and if it is time for her to go, she got to go.

I'm not very sympathetic. Like I thought there was a whole heap of unnecessary fuss about Christmas in UK, with Boris being a major chearleader of the Christmas cause, and people wondering if their families would ever get together again. It's one Christmas, guys, live with it! People have been through worse. A few months of being cooped up? Ahh, come on, economic aspects aside, we can live with it. I'd rather be living through this than four years of WW2 that my parents experienced.

Given all that... there is a certain amount of risk that each of us must decide is ok for us. I have been out and mixed with a very limited number of people in a fairly large space, quite a lot over Dec. '20. I can it a "lifesaver" that I was given that opportunity, but hey, frankly, I'd still be alive if I hadn't had it. (And... I now know that I came into contact with someone who tested positive shortly afterwards. Hmmm...)

It's like the giving-up-smoking thread. All that stuff we go through is not going to kill us: it's a matter of getting through it, and not giving up giving up.

Let's be glad of what we have, when stuck in the house. Video calls, internet, youtube, social media. We are not going to die for lack of a church, temple or shopping mall.

On the other hand, we are probably not going to die, from a socially-distanced, masked, visit to one of those places. Each must decide. I will not visit a shopping mall. I will not shop (one of my great pleasures!) except for essentials. My wife will not yet visit a church. We will visit a music performance where there are five audience spread out in the space for 100, and I will do my photography thing there, n95-masked.

Edit: looks like we are still the lucky ones, with situation in UK getting worse than ever, and talk of lockdown until March to break the current spread. My worry is that, as someone mentioned a few posts back, infection does not know anything about borders: international travel can change everything in a few days.

[dragonfire]

I have loved all those apocalypse movies where they hole up inside a house for months trying to beat the monsters outside. Now I got to live it myself, and I don't seem to get bored even after 9 months. Maybe because I am an introvert and a wildflower, and meeting people or going to crowded noisy places does not get me excited.

Maybe things would have been a lot more painful in the times of no internet, yet give me a decent book and some quiet, I can tide through months of loneliness.

But, I should admit, I am in the minority.