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Originally Posted by proton The general perception is that Europe is making decisions based on listening to expert opinion, whilst Britain and the US have blatantly rejected it (referring directly to the actions of both the leaders with bad hair). |
That seems to be the general perception. Whilst Britain and the US seem to have just blundered into this whole thing. Although I would be careful in saying that in Europe decisions were based on listening to expert opinion.
Europe is 44 countries (and includes Russia), even the EU has 27 member states. And it would be only fair to say I have very limited knowledge on most of them, especially on how they deal with Corona.
Quite a number of governments have listened closely to what the science community has been saying. Part of the problem here is that science does not have all the answer.
The Dutch PM said it very well during his first speech to the nation some 6 months ago. We need to take very concrete actions, based on a very ambivalent and incomplete understanding of this virus.
Even to date, scientist are not necessarily fully aligned on some aspects of how to deal with this virus. For instance, in the Netherlands, our Dr. Fauci, a gentleman called Jaap van Dissel, is still saying that wearing masks by the public at large has a negligible effect on the spread of the virus. Even so, we have introduced, just a few weeks ago, a special law, mandating the wearing of masks in all public spaces. So is that science based law making, or political law making?
One of the problems is that science just doesn’t have all the answers. Which some people see as failure, or even conspiracy. Personally I think that is just how science work, it is not always as black and white as people believe or want it to be.
I think it is just the nature of science when you are trying to deal with a disaster of this magnitude. I also think that the scientific approach has been focussed way too much on the medical consequence. Of course, no mistake, you do need to understand in all details how this virus works.
But what was lacking completely, and still is, to bring other disciplines into the mix. It was very clear that human behaviour plays a very large part in how this virus spreads. But for the first six months here in the Netherlands there was not a single “human behaviour specialist” involved in advising the Dutch government. It was all virologist, microbiologist, all sorts of doctors and managers from hospitals. And interestingly, if you revisit some of the restrictions and measure put in place in the past, definitely had a very large human behaviour component in them, without any real knowledge and insights in the team that came up with these recommendations.
The same could be said for economics. As I mentioned before I believe many government imposed restrictions/lock down to curb contacts and thus ensuring hospitals were not overloaded. And in many countries, certainly initially that was at the time probably the most appropriate cause of action. However, many countries failed to follow through. What do your do after x number of weeks of lock down.
I think they should have developed different plans and take a much broader approach on how to look at this. We can more or less calculate how fewer people have died due to Corona related disease due to the lockdowns and other restriction. However, very few governments have taken a broader view and had science, at large, take a deeper look at what happens to the medical state of a population in some sort of prolonged type of lock down.
There is certainly evidence that shows that the long term effect of the corona measures on a populations (medical) well being is profound.
It is all very noble to say that you can’t put a price of a human life. But if millions of people's life and livelihood are effected even though they themselves are unaffected by the virus, I think you are missing something.
I would say many governments, especially those with leaders without weird hair, probably got their initial response pretty much spot on. You could argue, they should have been better prepared. But as they say, when the house is on fire, you need to concentrate on putting the fire out.
Where I think most government failed, is the follow through after the initial lock down. It was just an endless variation of the same theme, without any due consideration of other factors. (see above)
Even so, this virus never seizes to amaze me: Just this week I read an article in the Dutch press. We have a very Dutch tradition, called SinterKlaas. Sort of semi-mythical figure from a few centuries ago. He comes round people homes and gives presents to the children. It is very Dutch children's event. But adults love it to.
So an elderly care home arranged for a Sinterklaas to come around and visit the elderly folks. Just because that is what you do. At the time there were no formal restrictions/lock down. They took appropriate care, Sinterklaas kept his distance, wore a mask, he did not go into people individual apartments, stayed in the main hall. Sinterklaas had done and passed a corona test a few days earlier. But he must have picked up the virus shortly after his test. And his very brief, well orchestrated visit has turned into a major diaster. Already 117 of the resident have died, due to Corona, since his visit, most of them in the last 10 days. Almost half the staff is at home with Corona!
It just shows how deadly it can be under certain conditions. A real super spreader event as they say. Best intentions to bring a little joy to these folks in these difficult time and the result is total deadly disaster. Very very sad.
Jeroen