[Samurai]

Originally Posted by m8002?

Even KA numbers are seeing a turnaround ( from the covid19.org site). Hope it continues next week as well. It is TN and KL that are still rising in this side of the country.

You have to also consider how the turnaround was achieved in Karnataka. Following is the daily testing numbers from the Karnataka, and Tamil nadu.

Can you guess why the daily positive numbers are going down in KA?

[xway]

Originally Posted by Samurai

You have to also consider how the turnaround was achieved in Karnataka. Following is the daily testing numbers from the Karnataka, and Tamil nadu.

Can you guess why the daily positive numbers are going down in KA?

Attachment 2156567

Attachment 2156566

True, lets not base everything on the numbers which are either fudged, or grossly miscalculated, or inadequate. Either ways they don't paint the right picture or even anywhere close to the ground reality.

Every state is in a hurry to show how quickly and efficiently they have turned around the situation, by whatever means they can.

Some of the elements missing the numbers are -

a. Under-reporting of cases
b. Doing lesser tests
c. Villages where now it is wreaking havoc (at least in North from what i see around), are not even being tested at all inspite of people dying.
d. The death numbers have not gone down as reflected in the data by all channels.

I am more worried about numbers going down and everything opened up in haste to tom tom the states efficiency of controlling the virus and behaving things are normal, when in reality cases and deaths continue. Then once it becomes too obvious to hide, imposing curbs again and start blame game of center state public etc, just like it happened during the 2nd wave. In the meantime whoever is caught unawares gets / faces dire consequences.

So, please be extermely careful, avoid going out unless emergency, wear double masks, keep sanitizing/washing hands, maintain distance, do not venture in crowded places at all.

[how_you_doing]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Can you guess why the daily positive numbers are going down in KA?

Originally Posted by xway

True, lets not base everything on the numbers which are either fudged, or grossly miscalculated, or inadequate. Either ways they don't paint the right picture or even anywhere close to the ground reality.

Every state is in a hurry to show how quickly and efficiently they have turned around the situation, by whatever means they can.

I do think the numbers are coming down significantly.

The number of tests is probably going down because maybe not enough people are going for tests as compared to April?

I just have the anecdotal experience to share with the forum. I live in a society of 5k people in Bengaluru and from May 2020, our number of cases have followed the same graph as what I see on Aarogya Setu. In April, the number of cases suddenly jumped to 66 from almost nothing and it was total chaos in the society. There were a lot of messages on society WhatsApp group about where to get the tests and sharing of hospital numbers etc. I remember 8 cases in our own tower.

Now the number of active cases has gone down to 42 and there is only 1 active case in our tower and now no one is asking about tests and hospitalization etc. Anyway, the numbers can never be accurate in India, we can only see patterns. I am pretty sure there were a lot of false positives and wrong diagnosis by hospitals to mint money too.

The only people who can comment at what rate the number of cases is going down is doctors working in hospitals.

[adimicra]

I can't vouch the authenticity of the data published.
I live in Hyderabad and as per the State Govt numbers, the 2nd wave was never that bad in Hyderabad and Telangana compared to other major cities or states, which I find hard to believe.

However, some of the stats from my apartment complex and similar ones where friends and colleagues are staying.

My complex - peak of 50+ active cases, now 10.
Complex 2 - peak of 200+ cases, now 60
Complex 3 - peak of 120+ cases, now 40
Complex 4 - peak of 100+ cases, now 30.

So, yes, this wave seems to be slowing down pretty fast which was expected given the exponential increase. In fact, the prediction done by Prof Manindra Agarwal of IIT Kanpur had also predicted a steep fall off and the actual numbers are also trending similarly, after some initial hiccups of the model.

https://www.sutra-india.in/

[DigitalOne]

Instead of looking at absolute case numbers, it is better to look at test positivity rates (confirmed cases per 100 tested). This cannot be easily fudged.

And positivity rates have been significantly coming down especially in Mumbai, and Delhi.

This is just the natural progression of highly infectious diseases.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by Samurai

You have to also consider how the turnaround was achieved in Karnataka. Following is the daily testing numbers from the Karnataka, and Tamil nadu.

Can you guess why the daily positive numbers are going down in KA?

In my understanding, testing numbers should be reviewed in conjunction with positivity rate. If positivity rate is going down along with number of tests, then it is most probably be a sign of overall dip in cases as well.

[paragsachania]

We should also remember that in the current situation the testing is being carried out mostly for symptomatic cases or even those who were in close contact with the positive cases.

Earlier, we had mass testing campaigns where everyone was getting tested. Today there is a discouragement to test unless you have a history and are symptomatic. So it makes a difference when such cases are tested and it is obvious that posivitity rate will increase significantly.

But all said and done, if one ignores the daily numbers and focuses only on the test positivity rates, it certainly provides some hopes.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

In my understanding, testing numbers should be reviewed in conjunction with positivity rate.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Instead of looking at absolute case numbers, it is better to look at test positivity rates (confirmed cases per 100 tested). This cannot be easily fudged.

Even the positivity rates are not low.

Karnataka


Tamil Nadu

Originally Posted by paragsachania

We should also remember that in the current situation the testing is being carried out mostly for symptomatic cases or even those who were in close contact with the positive cases.

This seems to be the case.

[paragsachania]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Even the positivity rates are not low.

Karnataka
Attachment 2156630

Tamil Nadu
Attachment 2156629

This seems to be the case.

Karnataka I am following and the positivity rate is certainly not low I agree. It is in few other states and cities where we are seeing decline in positivity rates.

Karnataka if at all may see this in coming weeks, hopefully that is.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Even the positivity rates are not low.

High positivity but lower testing count. This is worrying.

In Delhi when the cases were near the peak, this trend of lower testing but high positivity rate was visible on weekends mostly. Number of new cases used to dip every Monday-Tuesday because fewer people got tested over weekends.

So for KA, if the number of tests and positivity trends continue to diverge any further, then something is seriously wrong!

[Latheesh]

Decrease in number of cases - Karnataka lockdown started earlier than Kerala and Tamil Nadu (27th April - KA, 8thMay KL TN) This is also contributing to the reduced number of cases in KA.
Reduced testing - No travel related testing due to Interstate and foreign travel restrictions, reduced contacts/infection rate due to lockdown.

In KL and TN, lockdown results may start showing from next week onwards.

[Godzilla]

This thread to share some interesting information on the origins of COVID.

Firstly, I dislike conspiracy theories and on the surface this article might look like one. However, when a crime is committed and an investigator looks at the facts and evidences to draw upon various lines of thoughts. It is NOT conspiracy, it is reasoning. Also, I feel with this virus impacting all our lives, we deserve to know the truth and have exposure to differing opinions.

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function"- Scott Fitzgerald.

Here is the article which shares detailed analysis of the origins of COVID. It talks about the potential origins of COVID 1. Nature evolved virus 2. Man-made at a lab.

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/orig...es-6f03564c038

Now I leave you to draw your own conclusions. I am curious to see the views of our BHPians. Thanks to Dr. Sujai for sharing this article.

[msdivy]

The buck doesn't seem to stop anywhere in the current state of affairs. Bureaucracy has taken over the healthcare system. I have been there in such a situation, albeit in the software development domain. When the developers are struggling and the project is delayed, smart managers help the developers, empower them and then get out of way, so that the technical folks get back on track. There are some imbecile managers, who start micromanaging and head nowhere. Eventually, such managers get booted out. The management of the current health emergency is going the second way.

The current situation is spinning out of control. The powers to be want to ride the crest and take whatever collateral damage on the way. Still, hospitals don't admit without a COVID test report. Pregnant women are turned away if they test +ve. We are heading downhill. Just a few suggestions to get the control back.

1) Stop all COVID-19 testing (RT-PCR, Rapid, whatever)
Testing is waste of time & resources (both people & pharmaceuticals). It is not useful for diagnosis. It is unnecessary bean-counting. Testing can be easily manipulated by controlling the sample group or the number of tests being conducted. Divert the resource spent in testing to provide administrative support to doctors & healthcare staff. Testing has its place and that is in the immigration of airports and other entry points to the country. Another case of need for testing is to identify the virus strain.
(see 3, below on counting COVID +ve cases)

2) Withdraw the medicine list
Every WhatsApp group I am a member of has a list of COVID medicines. As soon as the new list is out, people head to the nearest pharmacy and dunk themselves with antibiotics and sometimes steroids, irrespective of whether they require or not. This is harmful in the long run. The treating physician must decide the medicine & dosage based on the patient's history. The physician must explain when to contact back and key symptoms to watch out for.

3) Establish triage centers in open fields, parks
Right now the physicians are in hospitals and the hospitals are not able to cope with the inflow of patients. Establish triage units in any open space of villages, towns, cities. Open space reduces transmission and distancing can be maintained. Mild symptoms can be treated on the spot, medium severity are sent for diagnostic testing and serious cases are sent to hospitals.
Every new patient visiting the triage center will count as COVID +ve and automatically, the system can mark them as COVID -ve after 14 days.

4) Create an environment of courage
All medical personal are vaccinated. They must stop using PPE kits wherever possible. Masks & gloves are sufficient in most cases. Govt must stop the mystery around COVID deaths. Dead bodies don't breathe, cough, or sneeze. They cannot transmit the virus. The body fluids, secretions must be handled with care, like in any other form of death. If the point (3) is taken care of, it will bring down the deaths.

5) Learn from others
Many countries, regions have solved the COVID pandemic problem. Learn what they did and adopt them after customizing them to our country.

The same recommendations hold good for future waves.

My 2 cents.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by msdivy

... There are some imbecile managers, who start micromanaging and head nowhere. ...

... And the sales team continue to pile on promises which are impossible to deliver


A lot of good sense in your points. Tend to disagree on just one: but I just don't know about the PPE thing. It's probably best to leave that to the medical profession itself.

[poloman]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Some counter arguments

1) Stop all COVID-19 testing (RT-PCR, Rapid, whatever)

Testing is waste of time & resources (both people & pharmaceuticals).

Is it really the case? The main reason for Covid spread is the asymptomatic carriers. Testing is to identify and isolate them. I strongly believe the main reason for COVID phase 2 is people going out to work and spreading the disease to their family members.

2) Withdraw the medicine list
Again in a stretched healthcare system, you need to look at the positives of this. Lot of people are not able to seek medical help at a hospital. So many consult online. So there is nothing wrong in having a standard medicine list.

3) Establish triage centers in open fields, parks
This is a good step. But there are not enough health care professionals to manage hospitals, so this looks like a far stretch,

4) Create an environment of courage

All medical personal are vaccinated. They must stop using PPE kits wherever possible.

Not sure how this is going to help. We don't need false feeling of security any more which is one reason we ended up in this horrible state in the first place.

5) Learn from others

Many countries, regions have solved the COVID pandemic problem. Learn what they did and adopt them after customizing them to our country.

The same recommendations hold good for future waves.

There are n't much countries of our population and size who have successfully done this. The next biggest democracy, the US is 5 times smaller in population and they have fared worse both in cases and deaths.