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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 8th May 2020, 14:53   #1741
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by v1p3r View Post
We are putting across solutions, or at least trying.

Open up the economy, have a staggered lockdown, release an actual stimulus package, help MSMEs, hold daily briefings at a national level from a senior elected representative, stop beating people up, don't ignore fundamental rights, test more, build critical health infrastructure, donate (time, effort, resources) to the less fortunate and those stranded and jobless / homeless. All of these suggestions and solutions have been put across on this forum, some by me...
Thank you sir. Will definitely do. With regards to the solutions, allow me to counter you.

Open up the economy - Economy is already opening up. Apart from restrictions in Red Zones, most other zones have opened up. Correct me if I am wrong

have a staggered lockdown - We are. We have zones, we have rules for each zone, we have lockdown rules varying by states and districts.

release an actual stimulus package, help MSMEs- not sure what an ACTUAL stimulus means, govt. has already released packages
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...6.cms?from=mdr

hold daily briefings at a national level from a senior elected representative, Not sure why an elected representative needs to have a press briefing for a medical pandemic. We already have the health secretary and health minister giving press briefings almost everyday.

stop beating people up - agree. However not seeing many incidents nowadays,

don't ignore fundamental rights - Not sure what fundamental rights were ignored. Can you please enlighten me.

test more - We are. Agree that its not upto the levels of the developed world, but we have ramped up quite a but.

build critical health infrastructure - we can, but such things take time and expecting a 1000 critical care hospitals to come up in 2 months is naivety. still, states are trying to do their best. For eg: https://www.newindianexpress.com/cit...s-2132576.html

donate (time, effort, resources) to the less fortunate and those stranded and jobless / homeless. This too is happening. Even general public have been doing their bit to ensure the less fortunate are supplied with food/essentials etc.

Please understand, we are a country of 1.3 billion people (~ 1 in every 6 people on the globe). It takes times for an elephant of this size to move. We are expecting the bureaucracy to achieve something in a matter of months, which was not achieved in the last 70 years by successive governments.

Last edited by Chetan_Rao : 10th May 2020 at 00:13. Reason: Trimmed quote
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Old 8th May 2020, 15:06   #1742
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by racer_ash View Post
Please understand, we are a country of 1.3 billion people (~ 1 in every 6 people on the globe). It takes times for an elephant of this size to move. We are expecting the bureaucracy to achieve something in a matter of months, which was not achieved in the last 70 years by successive governments.
This is what the government should consider while making major decisions and having proper exit plans which of course they never do !
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Old 8th May 2020, 15:18   #1743
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
For all those who blame Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamilnadu and Gujrat see the graph on May 2. Please donít compare Kerala to any state for health care. Iím a Keralite born and brought up in Kerala, currently working in Maharashtra. What Kerala achieved is not because of short term measures, itís because of at least 3-4 decades of progressive measures and also because a large diaspora who wanted better healthcare for their family like in places they worked. It will take at least another decade for any state to match that levels even if the administration decides to.
Sir, can you please highlight few key point which differentiate Kerala from other states in terms of health care perspective.

Thanks

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Old 8th May 2020, 16:14   #1744
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JLS View Post
Sir, can you please highlight few key point which differentiate Kerala from other states in terms of health care perspective.

Thanks

JLS
One thing that I can think about is the number of government hospitals and health care centers in the state. It's vast when compared to others. That's one primary reason why they were able to control the situation.

1991 census:

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Source - Wiki
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Old 8th May 2020, 16:43   #1745
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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One thing that I can think about is the number of government hospitals and health care centers in the state.
All that came from experience. Remember Nipah? KL kicked that bugís butt. Plus, over the years, a whole host of other epidemics were stopped dead on their tracks in KL. Kerala consciously chooses to learn from past experiences and to hand those learnings forward.

This is not to say that there isnít any pandering and petty politics in KL. There certainly is. But they definitely do some things right.

Coming back to other states, I find it laughable that plenty of language is being thrown about about the economic stimulus - incentivising industry, subsidising access to working capital for SMEs, etc. But there is deafening silence around the big white elephant - the people who are supposed to populate the economy are still locked up without the faintest idea of when they will ever be free to work and live their lives.

MH just indicated that the lockdown will go till end of May. Telangana declared the same earlier this week. A whole host of other states will soon follow. The bulk of our economic activity happens in urban areas which are mostly in the red or maybe orange; and we keep kicking the can down the road on reopening because we are feces-scared of the infection numbers not dipping.

So without a meaningful time horizon on consumer demand or on access to labour, I am struggling to find the point of all this talk about economic stimuli.
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Old 8th May 2020, 17:04   #1746
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by racer_ash View Post
...
Open up the economy - Economy is already opening up. Apart from restrictions in Red Zones, most other zones have opened up. Correct me if I am wrong
...
On the ground it is different. From Central Govt, to state to block lever officer and Police all have their own rules and interpretations- effectively translating to no affect. Here is Rajiv Bajaj lamenting over situation in Maharashtra.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le31518232.ece

Quote:
Supply chain not set right, curfew implementation not practical, says Rajiv Bajaj
I think similar ground realities, elsewhere too.

-BJ
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Old 8th May 2020, 17:22   #1747
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JLS View Post
can you please highlight few key point which differentiate Kerala from other states in terms of health care perspective.
Please donít address me Sir, Iím just another guy like you. Kerala has a high number of doctors, nurses, allied health workers. Kerala is unlike other states, itís mostly a City state. Large number of Tier 2 cities will well equipped hospitals and well functioning Primary health centres.

The Public health sector has a big presence with lot of youngsters waiting to join the service, unlike other states. When I left public sector 15 years back, the sector was ailing with inadequate supplies, typical sarkari staff. Over the years, 2 Women Health ministers along with the younger generation who joined the services made the system change drastically. Some Primary health centres can put to shame private hospitals, clean and modern unlike during my time in service.

>90% of all Primary health centres have doctors who actually come to work, which is not the case in other states where mostly doctors donít come. The Community health centres have more specialists, with District hospitals having even Super specialists and some having Coronary angioplasty facilities!

And the real stars are the Asha workers, Junior public health nurse and allied staff who make this all happen. They do a tremendous job in preventive aspect of diseases and thatís why contagious diseases donít cause much of an impact here. They are the real reason why 99.99% of child birth happens in hospitals in Kerala, yep 99.99!

Private sector is also good, but thatís the case in most states. For those who can afford there is no much issues regarding health care in India. But ĎOurí India is different from ĎTheirí India. Until the poor people donít get proper health care, donít expect India to become a great nation. When they get uplifted, then Ďweí will also get lifted into the next class. My only wish is that Corona has made us rethink our priorities and we invest more in Public health care sector. If not all the sacrifices made by people during this period would be for nothing.
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Old 8th May 2020, 18:05   #1748
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mvadg View Post
What we've been saying all along :
Big, LOUD screenprints don't make things true.

Oh, wait... they don't necessarily make them untrue, either. But, even though it may seem otherwise in a conversation like this, you might be heard better if you don't scream.

...

I have been a supporter of lockdown. I intend to remain locked-down for some time. I acknowledge fully that I am privileged to be able to afford that. I am worried at the increase in the numbers at this stage of the game. I am concerned that some mistakes may have drastically reduced the lockdown effect. That doesn't say lockdown was wrong, it says it was done wrong, with both authorities and people having shares in that.

I have heard it said that, in this state, the increasing numbers are in containment zones. It may be true that the curve is not flattening: if the cases are contained, might that be good enough?

It may also be the case that increasing numbers are being found in containment zones because that is where they are looking for cases, and that cases outside of those zones are going uncounted.

Last edited by Thad E Ginathom : 8th May 2020 at 18:20.
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Old 8th May 2020, 18:26   #1749
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

The curve simply won’t flatten because the curve we are seeing is not even the actual curve. The curve we are seeing is made up of infections that are actually getting detected through testing. The real curve is made up of infections that exist in the population, both detected and undetected. As we remain glued to the curve that we see every day, the virus is busy propagating and drawing itself a curve that no one is seeing; because the majority of the infections are asymptomatic and never get detected. So, what curve flattening are we beating ourselves about?

In a country like India with super high people density, there really is no stopping a virus like Covid which has THE most remarkable ability to transmit itself. This bug is not Nipah or Zika or even H1N1; each of which had a higher set of self-limiting factors than Covid. Those pathogens didn’t stay on surfaces for days, or linger in stools, or co-exist in animals like Covid does. Now we are learning that our brutal summers, which typically severely limit most pathogens, aren’t a deterrent for this virus.

I mean, this bug is versatile and tough. This thing is like nothing we have ever seen. We simply are not beating this pathogen without confronting it head on and building immunity within ourselves. In short, there is no flattening this curve until everyone has had a chance to encounter the virus (which may or may not mean that they actually catch the infection). That’s just the plain truth. And the longer that takes to happen, the more pain there will be in terms of collateral damage due to a locked down society.

Last edited by vb-san : 8th May 2020 at 19:13. Reason: Quoted post deleted
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Old 8th May 2020, 18:58   #1750
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

SOME ARE WINNING - SOME ARE NOT. WHICH COUNTRIES DO BEST IN BEATING COVID-19?

While quite a few countries have managed to have the covd under control -

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India is still far away from being in control. The curve is not flat; only the citizens are!

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Old 8th May 2020, 19:14   #1751
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
While quite a few countries have managed to have the covd under control -
One of the most remarkable stories of Covid-19 prevention is from Vietnam. Vietnam having a population of 9 crores has only 288 cases and 0 deaths. Thatís one place Iím interested in. Donít know how they managed to control the infection. Vietnam has lot of industries and tourism that depend on international travel, so they had exposure to outside people. Once this disease ends, we must send a team to Vietnam and learn how they managed it and prepare each state on that model. Vietnamese cities are as chaotic like our cities or perhaps even more. Few links I got hold of are given below.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...-economic-test

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/...9-on-the-cheap
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Old 8th May 2020, 19:20   #1752
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

The venerable professor tweeted the below.

See how conveniently he has forgotten India which has a population adjusted death rate of 0.00186 as of today?
Attached Thumbnails
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-screenshot_202005081909482.png  


Last edited by vb-san : 9th May 2020 at 06:15. Reason: Off-topic discussion trigger-point removed
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Old 8th May 2020, 19:57   #1753
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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See how conveniently he has forgotten India which has a population adjusted death rate of 0.00186 as of today?
Selective reporting is equally dangerous as fake news. This is what is happening in most of the mainstream and social media. They consistently project what they want to show as the truth ignoring facts and positive developments on the other side. If I post 1000 tweets or news links abusing Indian response, that does not mean that is the truth. I am just cherry picking, that is all. Even in this thread same thing is happening.

If you want to control the spread of this virus, there is no better way than the lock down. The success will depend on lot of factors like timing, general discipline, enforcement, testing, medical infrastructure, previous pandemic experience and so many similar complex factors. Now you can spin this in which ever way you want. This thread has crossed 1500 posts but the discussion points are same as first page itself.

Last edited by vb-san : 9th May 2020 at 06:16. Reason: Quoted post edited
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Old 8th May 2020, 21:38   #1754
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Selective reporting is equally dangerous as fake news. This is what is happening in most of the mainstream and social media. They consistently project what they want to show as the truth ignoring facts and positive developments on the other side. If I post 1000 tweets or news links abusing Indian response, that does not mean that is the truth. I am just cherry picking, that is all. Even in this thread same thing is happening.
What are you talking about? This thread is overwhelmingly on your side of the argument. So, you are now claiming the underdog status? Also, almost every single media outlet has screaming headlines about the "deadly corona virus". So, can you please enlighten us where on mainstream media the concept of lockdown is being criticised?

And who is ignoring facts? Did anyone here say that the infections and Covid deaths being reported are NOT true? If anything, we have not seen any posts from the lockdown supporters even vaguely regretting the migrant deaths or the N other pieces of collateral damage due to the lockdown. So, who is ignoring facts here? Your side or the side opposing the lockdown?

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If you want to control the spread of this virus, there is no better way than the lock down.
The best way to keep your child safe from the evils of the world is to keep him or her at home forever and NEVER allow them to leave. Like EVER. But, would you do that to your child?

No one. I mean no one disputes that a lockdown is a control mechanism. So, please do not twist the argument to attribute something to us that we are actually NOT saying. All we are asking is, is the control mechanism even worth it considering the huge cost to society for a pathogen that we are seeing is fatality affecting a very small minority; not just here, but around the world in general.**

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The success will depend on lot of factors like timing, general discipline, enforcement, testing, medical infrastructure, previous pandemic experience and so many similar complex factors.
I personally have never argued against the government in terms of health facilities or enforcement or anything like that (because I think the whole concept of lockdown is stupid in the first place). But, since you bring these aspects up, what is wrong in people questioning big parts of the lockdown's implementation?

**Please don't tell us that the deaths would have been higher without a lockdown. They certainly would have. No doubt about that all. But, for every 100 people infected, the portion of people for whom the disease becomes really critical is the same, lockdown or no lockdown. That is the nature of any disease. Certainly, you can make the case that as more cases pile up, a lack of healthcare capacity would mean an increased death rate for Covid. Yes, I would agree with that point. But, if we are going to attack that problem by locking everybody down, then what about the N other ailments for which many many people are not getting access to healthcare? Stroke, renal failure, chronic diabetes; you name it. In fact, not getting regular exercise is tantamount to a death sentence for many many seniors. What would you say to that? Essentially, we are padding the Covid numbers to look good while the numbers elsewhere are piling up. Or do you disagree?

Last edited by vb-san : 9th May 2020 at 06:22. Reason: Removed the last quoted bit
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Old 8th May 2020, 22:28   #1755
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
What are you talking about? This thread is overwhelmingly on your side of the argument. So, you are now claiming the underdog status? Also, almost every single media outlet has screaming headlines about the "deadly corona virus". So, can you please enlighten us where on mainstream media the concept of lockdown is being criticised?
I fully agree with you on the media hype. But still unable to formulate a clear opinion on the seriousness of the epidemic. On this forum few doctors are criticizing the lock down where as their related organisations from WHO to ICMR are advising lockdowns. Top epidemiologists are advocating lock down. Doctors are running scared and even refuse to treat normal patients. So can we blame the media or politicians alone.

So as a common man my opinions on the matter may be influenced by the collective hysteria. So as the political class. I admit barring few all of us are cutting paste news and twitter snippets. But is WHO or ICMR any different.
Giving out totally contradicting projections and advices at different points of times. But it is a fact that we don't have many countries which did otherwise to establish the contrary.

Last edited by vb-san : 9th May 2020 at 06:24. Reason: Avoid political discussion triggers.
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