[MasterChief]

Originally Posted by doxinboy

Brother

Thank you. With all the hoopla sorrounding the reporting across various platforms, your brilliant post brings in a mathematical model to understand the trajectory. Though it is scary, the optimism in containing the bug and reversing the factor below 1 is noteworthy.

For the sake of sanity (really I dream of the big blue ball with red pimples banging my head, of late.) may I request you to compute the trend for the country and the world, everyday on this thread? So that we can know if it is advancing or reversing.

Thanks for your inputs.

Dear Mate, thank you for appreciating my post....makes it worthwhile

As far as computing the Growth Factor is concerned, it is fraught with dangers unless and until we have reliable data that all the cases are duly reported. Especially, in the case of India, I suspect that many cases may go unreported due to unreliable data gathering. Even the superpower US of A is struggling to test all the suspected COVID-19 cases quickly (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/u...ng-delays.html). But, still, if you or anyone else wants to take up this exercise of calculating the growth factor, then the formula is given in my earlier post on page 27, which is quite straightforward. But, I would refrain from doing so because of the poor data availability.

[Hatari]

Originally Posted by SilentEngine

There is no hysteria (rightly so) on smoking or road accident deaths because they aren't contagious. They don't spread. Isn't that obvious?

Of course, smoking itself is bad and I try to stay away from smokers in public places, but I am not really interested in finding out how many have quit. It's a merely a number for me, unless I am involving in medical or rehabilitation work related to smoking and I am in some capacity to do something about it.

Covid-19 is not treatable as of now. Only symptoms can be managed and our immune system has to do the rest.

Mortality rate vs survival - Yes, mortality rate has come down last few days as more cases were reported and cured. But it's important at a macro level because that's one data point that will help governments and medical fraternity to plan. If everyone takes the required precaution it will come down naturally. But imagine the consequences if that doesn't happen. After some point, the healthcare system may collapse due to the sheer number of patients that need treatment and the healthcare infrastructure will simply not be able to support it, and it will affect larger set of people that need medical facilities. That's the risk with these kind of pandemics. One needs to be aware of such risks and not ignore it as just another flu or brush it away saying more people die of other causes.

Of course panic doesn't help, but we need to be aware of the risks here.

Thats my point.. no panic only because its not contagious? Other lifestyle choices get overlooked.
I came across a bike rider last evening who was not wearing a helmet, but had a mask on!

The fatality rate for age 10-39 is 0.2%. No children have died due to the coronavirus, that fact should provide a lot of comfort to parents.

[rajeev k]

Received a shameful SMS from BLPOPKTM for Maruti as under

Virus Offers in Maruti

*Book your New Maruti Bs 6 Today and get the benefits up to 55000/-

Free valuate your Old vehicle
*T&C apply

But within three hours a regret SMS followed thus:

We express our honest regret for the preceding SMS mentioning " Virus Offer" Sorry for the embarrassment instigated

Thanks for understanding

But the shame will not get erased soon for India's No 1 Automaker

[am1m]

Originally Posted by rajeev k

Received a shameful SMS from BLPOPKTM for Maruti as under

My god, what a stupid move. Must have been some over-smart dealership thinking they were being witty. Idiots. Hope something good comes out of this and Maruti learns to keep its dealers in control. In a similar vein of something good coming out of this troubling situation, looks like IT companies are gearing up for extended work from home scenarios. We've been getting indications that we'll get to work from home soon, if the situation becomes more serious. Hopefully companies will get to gather some real-life information on the positive effects on Bangalore traffic, pollution, and employee stress and productivity when it comes to working from home. And those lessons will not be forgotten after the situation normalizes.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by rajeev k

Received a shameful SMS from BLPOPKTM for Maruti as under



But within three hours a regret SMS followed thus:


But the shame will not get erased soon for India's No 1 Automaker

Do you mean the message was from Maruti itself or some local dealer? If it's a dealer then Maruti can only take action retroactively (since they are probably not involved in proof reading local dealer promotions).

No shame for Maruti in this as far as I can see.

[AltoLXI]

Looks like the age distribution is also going to play a significant role in the countries affected. The below graph for India - Italy comparison.

[Rahul_]

There are countries where it Corona simply cases grew in (more?) exponential way than others. While it could be attributed to lot of other things like how countries reacted and contained it - but there is an interesting aspect that within a latitude range the spread is explosive - may be favoured by temperature and other factors.

PS: Reference image picture picked up from odentext website. All credits for beautifully plotting the data is thiers.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by Rahul_

There are countries...

PS: Reference image picture picked up from odentext website. All credits for beautifully plotting the data is thiers.

Attachment 1978939

Just adding a link for that graphic

https://covid19.opentext.com/

[locusjag]

I never knew that the term "Coronavirus" existed before.
1) An old Asterix comic had a coronavirus character!
2) Dettol and Lysol containers have always had fine print in which they've claimed to be able to kill coronaviruses!

[ValarMorghulis]

Originally Posted by locusjag

I never knew that the term "Coronavirus" existed before.
1) An old Asterix comic had a coronavirus character!
2) Dettol and Lysol containers have always had fine print in which they've claimed to be able to kill coronaviruses!

Coronavirus is a group of virus. Coronavirus also causes:
1. Common cold
2. SARS
3. MERS
other diseases. This present epidemic is due to a mutated strain called Covid-19.
So don't think there is any conspiracy or foretelling/ prediction anywhere.



PS1: Covid-19 has a mortality rate of around 6% now. Viewing data sets in isolation (like the writer does) is a recipe for incorrect conclusions. India (luckily) has had no death due to Covid-19, but that doesn't mean Covid-19 has some special affinity for Indians or mortality rate is lower.

PS2: I really dislike non medicos spewing their opinion on medical issues. When it comes to public health issues, only certified and educated people should speak on a public platform.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Attachment 1978949

I never knew...

I read that article thanks to your high resolution pic. But the author of that article has extrapolated without proof. This is why I don't trust MBA types, marketing and PR types and those at the top of organizations that have nothing to do with the subject on hand and even those at the helm of research organizations that work on related subjects but speak without the required scientific rigor.

Why does he claim that we have a very tough immune system? I am not aware of any scientific basis for his claims. He has just added to the confusion.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

India (luckily) has had no death due to Covid-19, but that doesn't mean Covid-19 has some special affinity for Indians or mortality rate is lower.

I think the first death in India suspected to be due to coronavirus was reported some time back today.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

So don't think there is any conspiracy or foretelling/ prediction anywhere.

PS2: I really dislike non medicos spewing their opinion on medical issues. When it comes to public health issues, only certified and educated people should speak on a public platform.

So true. And this is probably true for all other fields as well. This is why Curtly Ambrose never gave interviews during or after his career. He is known to have famously told off a prominent journalist with "Journos think they know it all".

You do have some journalists who go on to become experts in some fields (e.g., Brahma Chellaney in Defence & Strategic affairs), but these cases are too few and far between.

[bpnpmr]

Being a doctor in the forum, I am posting on this thread.
Coronavirus has received lot of media coverage, it is good to have fear however, to get up in the morning with fear is no good way to live. In addition we have a notification with every phone call that we make.

The spread of virus can only be contained not stopped completely. There is an time period before one develops symptoms with infection and the viral infection itself. In addition, there are people with infection who have no symptoms.

Most people have mild to moderate infection. In few, it can cause serious infection. The vulnerable include the very young ones, elderly and those with other diseases. Limiting travel for this population may help.

Good hygiene and hand washing will help as well. Work from home if that's an option.

The shortage of masks is becoming apparent by the day, irony is healthcare providers are not being provided masks by the Govt. The seriously ill and Health professionals will need masks in the future, so stop buying masks unnecessarily.

Anyone seeking professional help in Bengaluru can consult doctors at Rajiv Gandhi Hospital for Chest and TB.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by JithinR

I think the first death in India suspected to be due to coronavirus was reported some time back today.

Yes. Suspected, not confirmed. The 76-year-old man is indeed confirmed dead, but it seems the report is still awaited if the reason was indeed Coronavirus.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/co...s-2532483.html