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Old 30th April 2020, 22:35   #1336
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Seriously, 18% of the people are dying!!

Ok, you want to say that every single case or a large % is tested and there are not many cases left?

If this 18% is a reason for justifying the lockdown. Good luck for saving millions of people. Probably that’s the narrative some guys want to hear.

Next will be what, due to the lockdown, India could bring Death rate lower from 18% to whatever they want to project.
I did some digging and think I know where that 80% figure came from. See this:
Quote:

80% of cases are mild
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that:
80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure.
in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.
Risk of death increases the older you are.
Relatively few cases are seen among children.
Src: https://www.worldometers.info/corona...symptoms/#mild

Two things worth noting:

1. They say 80% have mild flu-like symptoms. Some guy took that and replaced it with "asymptomatic".
2. The numbers are from a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17, where 3000 died (which they later revised to 4600) out of the 80K infected.

Do you still believe 80% cases are asymptomatic?
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Old 30th April 2020, 22:35   #1337
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Seriously, 18% of the people are dying!!

Ok, you want to say that every single case or a large % is tested and there are not many cases left?

If this 18% is a reason for justifying the lockdown. Good luck for saving millions of people. Probably that’s the narrative some guys want to hear.

Next will be what, due to the lockdown, India could bring Death rate lower from 18% to whatever they want to project.
Had it not been so bad, my dear friend, capitalists would not have opted for the lock down.
Entire world is on its knees right now, would you disagree? And it is not without reason.

From the cases that are reported as closed (death being a closed case), the % works out to be 18% as of now. These are not numbers from a single country but global average, with majority numbers coming in from developed countries in the west. So there is very little to question authenticity of these numbers.

And I am not saying this, just presenting a fact that the mortality is NOT 5% for sure. It might be argued that it MIGHT not be 18%, but it is much much higher than 5% for a fact.

Please do not wish me good luck alone, everyone here and everywhere needs it, please do revisit my post at the end.
And for the "next will be what", neither me nor you or anyone else is in a position to say anything.

All I am saying is, it is very easy to say lock down is not working, lift it and provide quotes & statements from the net justifying the lifting of lockdown.
Such articles and quotes will be plenty out there to support the lock down as well.

No one has had, so far, any opinion or suggestion to help reduce the eventuality that is staring right at our face, should everyone get infected in our country in a short period of time.
And again, without lock down as well, as can be seen in a lot of countries, the economy could not have been saved too.
There is no proof of it so far from the countries that did initially try and choose economy first.
In fact, its true vice versa, that there is proof of it not working at all in saving the economy. No one was spared.

And still we say lock down did not work.
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Old 30th April 2020, 22:38   #1338
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Snapshot of case mortality taken from Johns Hopkins -

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

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The number given for India is 3.3%.

However, from the definition of the case mortality rate [(# died) / (# confirmed covid +ve cases)], the thought, as everyone acknowledges, is the uncertainty in the denominator there.
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Old 30th April 2020, 22:45   #1339
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Behemoth View Post
The fatality rate is calculated once the patients have been discharged or deceased and is the actual measure of the fatality of a disease.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
S
The number given for India is 3.3%.
By these calculations, the current percentages will be approximately 23% for the world & 13% for India. Don't understand what is this 3,3 %?

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-11.png

Quote:
Originally Posted by civic-sense View Post
Do you still believe 80% cases are asymptomatic?
This guy is the Top authority in India.

Of 100 people with infection, 80 do not have symptoms,” Raman R Gangakhedkar, chief epidemiologist, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said on Monday.


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...7.cms?from=mdr


Quote:
Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
According to JHU -

Country Confirmed Deaths Case-Fatality Deaths/100k pop.

India 33,062 1,079 3.3% 0.08
That's my Question - why 3,3 % case fatality - by the logic of few members here - in simple % it comes to be 13%.

Last edited by Turbanator : 30th April 2020 at 22:53.
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Old 30th April 2020, 22:50   #1340
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
By these calculations, the current percentages will be approximately 23 % for the world & 13% for India. Don't understand what is this 3,3 %?
According to JHU -

Country Confirmed Deaths Case-Fatality Deaths/100k pop.

India 33,062 1,079 3.3% 0.08


So CFR = 1079/33062 ~ 3.3%

...

Also, this thing on
Quote:
80% cases are asymptomatic?
One of the origins of it is a journal publication -

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Taken from https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375. Or check the DOI - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1375

Admittedly, this asymptomatic rates surely would vary by country. The ICMR chief could possibly have political pressure to deal with as well.

An estimate for an fairly accurate measurement of asymptomatic rates / fraction could come from Dr.Vivek (on the forum). He has been a great resource and help on this whole corona crisis.

Last edited by Miyata : 30th April 2020 at 23:15. Reason: Adding another reference
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Old 1st May 2020, 00:09   #1341
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I checked the manufacturing dates of a few packaged goods in the super-market. All of them were manufactured before lockdown. Now since those businesses were shut down during the lockdown, are we looking at shortages in next 2 months? I mean the goods like soaps, detergents, ready to eat, cooking powders, paper tissues, rat poison, glue sticks, etc. I hope these industries increase production to cover the production shortages during the lockdown.

That brings me to my 3rd question:
3) If the lockdown is extended, how to handle the shortages of non-essential but necessary items?
Quote:
Originally Posted by msdivy View Post
Few questions:
1) When the lockdown is to be lifted? Is it based on date, or total active cases number or based on growth rate behavior?

2) When the lockdown is lifted, won't the corona cases take off? How that number will be contained?
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Old 1st May 2020, 08:27   #1342
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post

This guy is the Top authority in India.

Of 100 people with infection, 80 do not have symptoms,” Raman R Gangakhedkar, chief epidemiologist, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said on Monday.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...7.cms?from=mdr
Thank you Turbanator. I am with you on this. Too many experts on this thread, including me.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:40   #1343
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I remember that a fellow member had posted on this forum (might not be this thread...not able to find the post) that Bengaluru Police Commissioner had asked not to collect fines for the vehicles seized during the lockdown.

It seems they are set to collect fines after all:

https://twitter.com/deepolice12/stat...959077888?s=19
Attached Thumbnails
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-screenshot_20200501104038.png  


Last edited by JithinR : 1st May 2020 at 10:41.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:48   #1344
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by msdivy View Post
I checked the manufacturing dates of a few packaged goods in the super-market. All of them were manufactured before lockdown. Now since those businesses were shut down during the lockdown, are we looking at shortages in next 2 months? I mean the goods like soaps, detergents, ready to eat, cooking powders, paper tissues, rat poison, glue sticks, etc. I hope these industries increase production to cover the production shortages during the lockdown.
...
How did rat poison enter that list ?

That said , I feel there will be a surge in sales of Laptops and Tablets the moment the lockdown is lifted.
Most schools will operate in web conference mode till end of July. So if you have 2 kids you need 2 more devices as both may need to attend an online class via a web conference.
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:00   #1345
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by JithinR View Post
I remember that a fellow member had posted on this forum (might not be this thread...not able to find the post) that Bengaluru Police Commissioner had asked not to collect fines for the vehicles seized during the lockdown.

It seems they are set to collect fines after all
That was me who had posted about the Commissioner clearly ordering all his colleagues not to collect "Traffic Penalties" of any past offence for the seized vehicles.

The amount mentioned in the tweet is fine for violation of lock down order as per Disaster Management Act.

So the fact that vehicle owners won't have to shell out money and pay their past dues for violations still holds good and I don't think there is a change on this stand.

Quoting my own post for reference:
Quote:
Originally Posted by paragsachania View Post
The Commissioner has made it absolutely crystal clear to all the control rooms that no traffic fines shall be collected from the vehicles seized during lockdown.

Last edited by paragsachania : 1st May 2020 at 11:04.
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:18   #1346
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

You can’t calculate real Case fatality rate for any Pandemic, because the vast majority with mild illness won’t get tested. My friends working in NHS UK were not even tested as their illness was mild and according to protocol testing was not needed. If you leave people with mild illness out, mortality rate will look high!

All the lock down supporters should remain in their homes till the last case of Covid-19 gets cured. Until the last person is cured there is always the risk. Better they should remain inside their houses permanently, there is always some risk when you go out in the form of Virus, Bacteria, Protozoa, pollutants, accidents and they are not going to go away. One should stop eating all food stuff except ‘Organic’ because they have been made with help of pesticides. Maybe we should think of building ‘Safe zones’ where there is no risk to life at all.
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:30   #1347
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Is it possible to get an emergency travel pass to go from Bangalore to Chennai for a medical emergency?
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:30   #1348
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Given that we live in a democracy or at least we think we do, I think it's time that the govt let the citizens make certain choices with regards to their safety and life. Lockdown 1.0 and 2.0 was needed to the give the govt time to build up infra. I don't think additional time is going to help the govt get anything done that they haven't already. With regards to the various sectors:

Education: I don't think much as happened on this front. The govt should've worked on a war footing to bring the entire school/college curriculum online. We have some great software organizations and they could've been used to develop this infra. Going forward, classes 1 to 5 should have a vacation until Diwali. These kids don't do much in school anyway. For higher grades and college the govt should let the parents decide if they want to send their kids to school or opt for online classes. Examination methods should've been changed to online (GRE/SAT) styles. This crisis could've been used to drive a paradigm change in our education sector. Nothing happened.

Manufacturing: Start all activities immediately with the local police ensuring that hygiene and social distancing are enforced on the shop floor.

IT/Services: Those who want can go work from the office, the others can work from home.

Restaurants: Let them run at 50% of max capacity and take away. Again, enforcement of rules is key here.

Malls: Restrict timings and don't allow food courts to run.

Movies: Keep the halls shut. Giants such as PVR and INOX should've moved onto online apps and websites to release and run movies by now on a per movie charge. Since they haven't bothered, they can bite the dust since they only have themselves to blame for being stubborn and waiting for the old business model to restart.

Electronics/Apparel Retail: Since grocery/medicine retail is already running let these chaps run too. People can make a choice if they want that new TV/Jeans that badly to venture into a store.

E-Commerce: This is a no brainer. If Swiggy/Zomato/Dunzo etc can have hundreds of delivery boys running around I don't see the point in not letting people buy other stuff. Let the people decide.

Travel: Allow people to travel in their vehicles and run public transport at 30-40% occupancy. Ban cash at all toll plazas/petrol pumps. This will also help with adoption of FasTags and UPI transactions.

Basically, the decision to get back to life needs to be with the people. The govt hopefully has done all it can. Those who are risk averse or with pots of money can elect to stay home and use online services to meet their needs. Others can elect to venture out as they see fit. Red/Green/Yellow zoning is useless since transitioning from red to orange to green is impossible in the current scenario and people can't keep sitting at home for months more.

Law enforcement is critical here. Enforcing check posts and lathi charging people is the easy part. They need to be at the forefront on enforcing social distancing and hygiene regulations for/at businesses.

Last edited by yd_gli : 1st May 2020 at 11:33.
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Old 1st May 2020, 12:10   #1349
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

They have to relax the lockdown measures now. It should rather be guidelines from now on instead of enforcement. Anybody who can be productive from home should be encouraged to do so, but it should be an individual choice. People who are worried about the virus have a choice not to get out of their homes. Similarly the other set should also have that choice to go out if they want and their rights should be protected too. Government's effort from now on should be in educating rather than enforcing. Everyone is at the edge of their patience now and it can get out of hands if this strict lockdown is continued.
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Old 1st May 2020, 12:11   #1350
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Happy to see people are anticipating the post lockdown scenario.
I am in agreement with most of your points, I've just added my opinions to your post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
give the govt time to build up infra.
Basically they did little to nothing - focused on lock-down and death stats.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Education:...could've been used to drive a paradigm change
Many, many people have now experienced remote teaching and learning, can we use this to fix the shortcomings and make remote learning as good as learning face to face? Not just the conferencing / remote schooling software, but using feedback from the actual experience of teachers and students to address shortcomings like resources with the students and teachers, features required for better interaction, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Manufacturing: with the local police
Police force cannot be salvaged. Time to let them all go and start afresh.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Malls: Restrict timings and don't allow food courts to run.
On the contrary, make them 24/7, enforce shifts for the staff in the stores, otherwise our penny-pinching businessmen will work the staff to death. Keep food courts open - I see no reason to shut them. Restrict numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Electronics/Apparel Retail:
E-Commerce:
Have you noticed that physical stores don't carry all models and are reluctant to let you touch/experience whatever it is that you want to buy? Let the manufacturers open experience centers (like many have already) and get rid of brick and mortar stores.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Travel: run public transport at 30-40% occupancy.
This is against the core principles of our rulers, "everything must be designed so as to be under-capacity right from the start, and never allow increase in capacity"

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
since transitioning from red to orange to green is impossible in the current scenario and people can't keep sitting at home for months more
The logic of red, orange, green is flawed and will give rise to the "permit raj"
Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Law enforcement
They've shown they are unfit in every way, lets not expect anything.

NOTE FROM SUPPORT - Please DO NOT reply to posts within a quoted post, as it leads to visual discomfort for readers. Additionally, it's inconvenient to quote & reply to such a post. Next instance would earn you an infraction.

For the correct way to quote, please see this thread.

Thanks!

Last edited by Sheel : 1st May 2020 at 17:08. Reason: Mod note attached.
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