[mvadg]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

All the lock down supporters should remain in their homes till the last case of Covid-19 gets cured...
... Maybe we should think of building ‘Safe zones’ where there is no risk to life at all.

. You are my kind of doc!
There seem to be two very different strains. I don't know if we are looking at finding out which exact strain a person has been infected with. This may be important in future - (1) right now we have no way to identify the strain in the field - please correct me if I'm wrong. (2) Is there anyway to tell how a person will react to infection? Asymptomatic, symptomatic and whether severe or otherwise? Can we do this with other diseases?

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

Just to clarify the fatality rate of the virus, which is repeatedly being referred here by a few members as 5%, here is the world average at 18%.
FATALITY RATE IS NOT 5%, IT IS 18%..

I reality, it is actually less than 1 percent. Almost every government and many experts and health departments have publicly acknowledged that the real number of cases in each country is at least 10 times higher. In Ohio, the head of the health department even estimated that the actual cases were at least a hundred times more than the figures. Now several antibody tests have been conducted which found that the number of people infected was far higher. Recently such tests in New York showed around 25% people were infected (at some point).
Here is one article from Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...101_story.html

[turbo_delight]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Attachment 2000551

Death and recovery have the same time frame of 2-3 weeks.
So, as per this figure, the fatality rate is
1075/(8373 + 1075) = 1075/9448 = 11.3 %
And not 1-2%.

Fatality of a disease should be calculated with known outcomes. In this case, since we don't have any history, at least the time frame should be used for calculation.

If govt wants to lower these percentage numbers, it can use death/million, or worst, death/entire population. These numbers will be even lower.

But with some common sense, you can say these numbers of 1-2% fatality rate is incorrect.

With lockdown, govt and our community has done it's best so that people don't die of starvation. Agree that people don't have work, community has to step in.

But without lockdown, the numbers would have rosen to a few lakhs, and in that case too, there will not be any work. If anyone thinks that daily wage workers or companies would have continued to work, I don't think that would have happened.

Without lockdown, we would have seen fear around, forget economics. 11% death rate, running through the entire population, will leave your team, your family members, with 10 % less strength.

America and developed countries won't even think of lockdown, shutting economy if fatality rate was 1%.
Just imagine job loss in US is now 1% approx at 4 million out of total population of 330 million.

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by mvadg

There seem to be two very different strains. I don't know if we are looking at finding out which exact strain a person has been infected with. This may be important in future - (1) right now we have no way to identify the strain in the field - please correct me if I'm wrong. (2) Is there anyway to tell how a person will react to infection?

There are lot of mutations the virus has undergone. We are not looking at the virus variant in the field as it’s not practical, although we can identify the variant. There is no way to predict how one will react to infection.

I would be happy to get infected with the strain in Kerala, which most probably is the one from Middle East and has not shown high mortality in Kerala. Media has already blown this virus out of proportion and now even the government will be scared to open the country. If the lock down continues like this, many media houses will wind up as advertising revenue has gone down, that’s one real positive effect of this virus infection.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

America and developed countries won't even think of lockdown, shutting economy if fatality rate was 1%..

America is NOT under lockdown. Business have been advised to close and many of them have chosen to do so. But the country is certainly not under a federally mandated lockdown enforced by law. Many places are open and are operating with some precautions. Parks and recreational areas are open and many many parts of their economy are fully functioning. While many Americans are for the shutdown, many others are opposed to it and are allowing themselves and their businesses to function. Certainly, if you were to venture out in the US, you would not be apprehended by the police and lathi charged.

Yes, they have higher numbers of dead at present. But if there is such a thing called herd immunity to this virus, the US is well on it’s way to it.

The problem here is that there is no light at the end of this tunnel. If we say that the virus is such a killer, then with 1.3 billion people, we would have to remain locked down forever.

[JLS]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/p...d/20200501.htm

I am not sure whether this has been reported here.
Railways are running a train from Telangana to Jharkhand.
If this works out without much disturbance and also without transmission at Jharkhand wiith due care taken with quarantine facility in place, we may have a procedure to move majority of migrant workers back to their home.

I hope that in their home town/village they will be taken care both for day to day needs and health care needs.

I know, people might say too little, too late. But I think this is a good initiative.

Also, I am reading another indication from this incidence that, train transportation is arranged as migrant workers will not be able to get back to work for a longer duration.
Lock-down is here to stay for a longer period.

Regards

JLS

[Miyata]

A strong catch-22 situation presents itself to global leadership. While those in favor of extending the lockdown may find support to their stance; those wanting to lift the lockdown (with necessary precautions in place) may find more thinking required on their part!

I was / am (!) in the camp beginning to favor lifting of the lockdown; opening of the economy..but with appropriate precautions in place (distancing; tracing; disinfecting/sterilizing; PPEs for people reporting to work etc).

Japanese island hit by second wave of coronavirus after ending lockdown early

Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido — the first area of the country to see a major coronavirus outbreak — was forced back into lockdown after lifting its stringent restrictions too early

when prefectural governor Naomichi Suzuki lifted the restrictions, a second wave of infections slammed the island even harder

The region was forced back into lockdown.

“Now I regret it, we should not have lifted the first state of emergency,” Dr. Kiyoshi Nagase, chairman of the Hokkaido Medical Association, who helped coordinate the government response,

The island’s story serves as a wake-up call for leaders of other nations — including the US — as they consider loosening restrictions

[nkrishnap]

Originally Posted by paragsachania

That was me who had posted about the Commissioner clearly ordering all his colleagues not to collect "Traffic Penalties" of any past offence for the seized vehicles.

The amount mentioned in the tweet is fine for violation of lock down order as per Disaster Management Act.

So the fact that vehicle owners won't have to shell out money and pay their past dues for violations still holds good and I don't think there is a change on this stand.

Quoting my own post for reference:

Why shouldn't they collect the fine for the past offenses. They wont volunteer to pay and only when caught again by police for breaking another law a fine would probably be collected.

Collect all the past ones too and ensure the guys came to loiter around are made to pay.

[Safety is Param]

Originally Posted by rahulcmoulee

Is it possible to get an emergency travel pass to go from Bangalore to Chennai for a medical emergency?

Did you try contacting your zonal DCP office?

They should help you with the permit after examining your case.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by Miyata

A strong catch-22 situation presents itself to global leadership. While those in favor of extending the lockdown may find support to their stance; those wanting to lift the lockdown (with necessary precautions in place) may find more thinking required on their part!

I was / am (!) in the camp beginning to favor lifting of the lockdown; opening of the economy..but with appropriate precautions in place (distancing; tracing; disinfecting/sterilizing; PPEs for people reporting to work etc).

Japanese island hit by second wave of coronavirus after ending lockdown early

There WILL be a second wave. Then there WILL be a third wave. Then a fourth. And then a fifth and a sixth. This will go one forever. I am not being sarcastic. We now know that that is exactly how this virus works. It is not going anywhere anytime soon.

If the virus happened to be one dimensional and if it came with a definite expiry date when combated with appropriate measures (like this lockdown), then I am all for waiting until that date. But, this virus has no expiry date at all. Like EVER.

Open society and brave the virus. That is the only way out. And we will get to that point sooner or later. The later we get there, the more damaging will be the recovery. We would have done wholesale damage to society and to the economy.

You simply cannot win a war without being willing to take casualties. Hiding in the trenches is not a long term option. If you keep hiding there, the enemy will eventually creep up to you and mow you down on your own turf. At some point, you have to get out and take a shot at the enemy

P.S.
For those who think a vaccine is a solution, here is a thought. This virus has some 30 or 40 or 50 mutations. So, a vaccine is a long time away. Even if developed, a vaccine may not be very effective. People in the West take a flu vaccine. But, there is no guarantee that the vaccine will work. Back in 2009, I took the flu vaccine in Seattle. Then, I promptly came down with the flu in a couple of months.

[BenjiRoss]

The only purposes of the lockdown besides preparing the system for an onslaught of cases is preparing the public for a lifestyle of minimal interaction with safe distancing to avoiding crowding and also mentally prepare to fall sick ourselves or lose a few dear ones.
If we adhere to some principles, the flurry of cases will not be a steep incline.
We're talking about India where adherence to guidelines is not common and where blaming is an immediate response. The moment cases increase again or a dear one gets sick we will blame the government. The moment we run out of icu beds or healthcare facilities we will blame the hospitals.
We didn't train our population to be disciplined or follow instructions that will be safe for themselves.
For this we will suffer when the lockdown eases. All we can do is be prepared to lose a little, cry a little, accept some damage and move on cautiously.
There is no right answer. They didn't teach this kind of economics, medicine, politics, statistics or science in school, college, University or in real life. If we could all be humans and support each other we will come out of this heavily bruised but continue to be humans.
But we're not looking to fight this battle together. We're just looking for someone to blame for each casualty and for each setback.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by BenjiRoss

The only purposes of the lockdown besides preparing the system for an onslaught of cases is preparing the public for a lifestyle of minimal interaction with safe distancing to avoiding crowding and also mentally prepare to fall sick ourselves or lose a few dear ones.
If we adhere to some principles, the flurry of cases will not be a steep incline.
We're talking about India where adherence to guidelines is not common and where blaming is an immediate response. The moment cases increase again or a dear one gets sick we will blame the government. The moment we run out of icu beds or healthcare facilities we will blame the hospitals.
We didn't train our population to be disciplined or follow instructions that will be safe for themselves.
For this we will suffer when the lockdown eases. All we can do is be prepared to lose a little, cry a little, accept some damage and move on cautiously.
There is no right answer. They didn't teach this kind of economics, medicine, politics, statistics or science in school, college, University or in real life. If we could all be humans and support each other we will come out of this heavily bruised but continue to be humans.
But we're not looking to fight this battle together. We're just looking for someone to blame for each casualty and for each setback.

This is correct. I will agree with you 100% on this. But, just one small correction. This tendency to blame the government and others for one's problems is not restricted to India. It is practically a universal trait.

Case in point, anyone who has spent some time in the US will tell you that if you ask people about their problems, they will always blame government; more so if the party that is in power is not the one they voted for. It is the same case in Europe and in every other place on earth. (Except in China. We will never know what the average Chinese person thinks of his/her government and society.)

By the way, this is not regarding your post in particular. But, for anyone interested, here is today's link from Times of India. A bunch of guys decided that they would rather be unsafe in the USA rather than be safe in India. Their concern is so great that they are paying almost a million USD to charter their own Airbus with some 275 seats. You can of course argue that unlike us India workers, these guys have other considerations to worry about, such as their H1-B visas, insurance, etc. But, if we are saying in this thread that fear for life is THE major vein of emotion running through people right now, and hence this lockdown, here is actual proof that it is not so.

[greenoval]

The Centre for infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) has warned that coronavirus cases would continue to be reported for as long as two years and wont be controlled until 70% of the worlds population is immune or development of vaccine.

Because of its ability to spread from people who dont appear to be ill, longer incubation period and higher reproductive rate, the virus may be harder to control than influenza.

The center has also laid out three scenarios for how cases might ebb and flow in the coming months, depending on control measures and other factors.

Link to the report - Coronavirus cases would be reported for next 18 to 24 months, warns CIDRAP.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by paragsachania

That was me who had posted about the Commissioner clearly ordering all his colleagues not to collect "Traffic Penalties" of any past offence for the seized vehicles.

The amount mentioned in the tweet is fine for violation of lock down order as per Disaster Management Act.

So the fact that vehicle owners won't have to shell out money and pay their past dues for violations still holds good and I don't think there is a change on this stand.

Quoting my own post for reference:

Thanks. Should have known to look in the Bengaluru traffic thread.

Unfortunately, the "Traffic fines" part no longer holds good.

https://twitter.com/blrcitytraffic/s...959641088?s=19

[DCEite]

Unconfirmed news reports announcing lockdown has been further extended till May 17th !

More details awaited.