[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Overwhelmed doctors and nurses in Italy were forced to choose who gets to have ventilator support (and thus, to choose who lives or dies). The situation became nerve-wracking there. Medical systems can get overwhelmed in a similar manner elsewhere.

This is inevitable. It is a question of whether it happens now or over time.

Originally Posted by locusjag

What kind of choices are these to make? To let people get infected or die en masse or to let the economy crumble and have the unemployed line up for free soup?

Nice euphemism. If the only consequence of economic collapse and large scale unemployment is people lining up for free soup, then by all means, please reset this poll and allow me to vote again. I will wholeheartedly vote for not just a lockdown; but for an extended lockdown that goes on indefinitely.

[rrsteer]

Originally Posted by audioholic

I have a curiosity, more from my own safety point of view. Are you really confident of going out and still being safe? I am definitely not knowledgeable to comment on what is good for the country. But I am not confident of being able to go out, return home and yet not infect the vulnerable in my family.

I have the exact same question. In my mind, I am clear I am not going to step out of the house unless its unavoidable. Its because of my safety and because of the safety of others who give meaning to my very existence. And this is not an easy decision to make as it means forgoing income till such time that I decide to stay indoors.

But this is my own view and I would not impose my views on others, and there is no point in doing it, really.

I think the thread has reached a point where posts are either virtue signalling or passive aggressive.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by rrsteer

I have the exact same question. In my mind, I am clear I am not going to step out of the house unless its unavoidable. Its because of my safety and because of the safety of others who give meaning to my very existence. And this is not an easy decision to make as it means forgoing income till such time that I decide to stay indoors.

But this is my own view and I would not impose my views on others, and there is no point in doing it, really.

I think the thread has reached a point where posts are either virtue signalling or passive aggressive.

Originally Posted by audioholic

I have a curiosity, more from my own safety point of view. Are you really confident of going out and still being safe? I am definitely not knowledgeable to comment on what is good for the country. But I am not confident of being able to go out, return home and yet not infect the vulnerable in my family. Are you confident? If yes then what are the ways you would follow to safeguard yourself?

I am not trying to troll either of you. But, let me turn around this question to the both of you.

At what point would you feel comfortable stepping out?

I mean, we now have statements from top doctors that this virus stays on surfaces and in fecal matter for a long time, and that it will keep returning every year, and that it may not even offer full immunity to people who have been cured.

So, at what point will you actually feel safe?

Again, I do not know the two of you and have no interest in angering you. I am simply trying to get another view because we are all in this together and I would genuinely like to know if you personally have an alternative method / timeline for societal re-engagement.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Again, I do not know the two of you and have no interest in angering you. I am simply trying to get another view because we are all in this together and I would genuinely like to know if you personally have an alternative method / timeline for societal re-engagement.

Speaking as a third person here - I've long since stopped trying to prescribe solutions for the COVID-19 saga (i'm not being sarcastic towards others who are trying to think of solutions - mind you) in the "Shifting gears" section and all the COVID-19 threads here.

I mean, I've had my daughter and dad visit the ER after lockdown started, for other emergencies. I shared my updates here of the same. My uncle had to undergo a 2nd brain tumor surgery. I shared my updates here on the process of getting an e-pass for helping out. And I have shared of things that went kaput in the household during lockdown, and my rotting molar tooth...That's where I stopped, quite consciously.

We are just human beings, perhaps better endowed or privileged to varying extents than others. Almost none of us here are going to make a difference out there, unless we are a doctor or an administrator of some sort. Who am I to prescribe anything? I don't have all the answers, any answer in fact, and I'm okay with it. I'm just going to buckle up and observe.

Moreover, I was terribly disappointed to see fellow members get attacked in the early days of the lockdown, over trivial things like whether they believe in traditional medicine systems, whether the news they shared is genuine or fake...Hell, I even disappointed myself once by indulging in a personal attack when someone accused people like myself of something - thankfully our mods kept me on track.

This is not who we were before the COVID-19 situation. We were much better than this, whatever's going on here. That's my personal take on this.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

At what point would you feel comfortable stepping out?

That's a good question! Been thinking about it a lot myself. The following is- 1. with the assumption that authorities have allowed the activities I refer to (whenever that is) and 2. with the understanding that each person will have a different level of risk they are willing to accept.

Once the government allows it (and if they allow it even as early as May 3, I will be comfortable) - I would be comfortable going outside to walk and to use my bike and car. I would not use public transport (before this, I used the metro and buses a lot). I will stay away from restaurants, gyms, shops. I will be comfortable ordering food and other things for delivery. I will be comfortable going to public parks and exercising. I will carry a mask with me and a small bottle of sanitizer. I will be comfortable going on long drives, carrying my own food and water. I will not be taking flights or trains. I will go visit my friends but will call them first and ask if they are willing to let me go meet them. I will be comfortable letting my friends come home to meet me. I will be comfortable going in to work, but I think I will stay away because I think it will be better for those of us who can work from home to give those who cannot, the social-distancing space to be in offices or on the road to the offices.

Of course it is relatively easier for me to make these choices, we are just the two of us at home and there are no older folks or toddlers we come in close contact with everyday. One consideration that would have stopped me is if I do contract the virus, I would not want my neighbors and neighborhood to suffer because the authorities will then lock down the area. But from what I see, I think my neighbors are already moving around and socializing a lot more than I am right now during the lock down so I think my conscience is clear on that.

[Jaguar]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

My Question is what would have been better - letting people go back to their places when the count was little or now when it's so high? Tell me, how difficult is this whole situation to brainstorm in meetings? I am sure no one would have confirmed Zero cases after 45 Days of lockdown, so why did they not considered a more planned Lockdown?

Would that even be possible? I mean, until there is a lockdown, the migrant workers have jobs and therefore no reason to head home, nor would the employers willfully let go of their employees. So it is a catch-22 situation.

[DCEite]

Guys,

Does anyone know the criteria for dividing the states/districts into Red, Orange and Green Zones ?

As i understand.

1. Even if 1 corona-virus case is detected, the district becomes red zone.
2. If no Corona case for last 14 days, then the red zone moves to Orange zone.
3. If no Corona case for last 28 days, then the Orange zone moves to Green zone.

Is my understanding correct ?

If it is, then it would be very very difficult for any district to move from Red zone to even Orange zone for a long time since there can be 1 odd cases detected even after the virus has been contained overall in the country to a great extent.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by Jaguar

I mean, until there is a lockdown, the migrant workers have jobs and therefore no reason to head home

So unlike Virus, lockdown was a self-made situation. The same we are doing now, we could have announced a partial lockdown.

Say, no malls, cinemas, local transport except to railway or bus station and everybody who wants to go gets a chance. Either by trains or buses or self conveyance. Many students, families, pilgrims besides the workers could have gone home and the spike we are seeing now or will get in the coming week we could have averted as now more people are infected than what were 6 weeks before. This is just from few people who came from Naded, many more arrived earlier today and we will have the results in some time. This is the biggest single day jump for Punjab probably

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/ch...ount-480-78458

We could have closed offices with maximum work from home, and other non-essential services selectively. Warehouses, commercial trucks, ports, customs could have kept open. Before closing fully, we should have waited and seen the results.

Perhaps our decision makers got too frightened by happenings at other places. That’s where a true leadership counts. You take some steps and wait for the results.

Anyway, we cannot go back. Hope the people get home. I am sure with another 3-4 weeks of lockdown things should get settled.

Some guys said that rich people are more worried than poor, it will be wrong. I am not that rich so can be mistaken but from whatever interactions I have with few business owners, people are genuinely worried about loss of income for poor more than their owns. Like the company I work for, our owners just asked for how many months can we pay the wages and what we need to ensure everyone gets paid. It’s here I feel that the Government could have done better. They could have extended some benefits say equivalent to last year Income tax we paid or something but currently there is absolutely nothing. Not even a Rupee.

Another reason, there is no shortage of funds for the NGO or people at a local level. Within our small society of about 200 flats, we could manage a large amount and are running proper kitchen and have served over 40,000 food packets besides other utilities in past 40 days.

This India differs greatly from the past where rich will take the last penny from the poor and won’t worry much. But again, these are my own views based on my limited circle.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by DCEite

Guys,

Does anyone know the criteria for dividing the states/districts into Red, Orange and Green Zones ?

I am not able to find the Health Ministry notification for it as of yet but an article updated today (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...campaign=cppst) lists these criteria:

What are red-zone districts?
These districts have the highest incidence of cases. Before April 15, the ministry classified a district as red zone if it reported more than 15 cases. However, now a district with highest case load contributing to more than 80% cases of each state or a district with doubling rate less than 4 days would be classified as red zone district.

What are orange and green-zone districts?
A district that has not reported a single case in last 14 days is an orange zone district. A green zone district is one which has not reported any case over 28 days.

[vinit.merchant]

Just to clarify the fatality rate of the virus, which is repeatedly being referred here by a few members as 5%, here is the world average at 18%.



When things go out of hand in a populous country like India, there wont be enough beds in hospitals even for those in a critical condition.
And then, it will be pretty darn easy for India to beat that global average of 18%.
It currently stands at 11%.

Lockdown is to avoid that eventuality I believe, as I do not think the government has any solution for it.
Looking at the conditions all over the world, I do not see that economy had any chance at surviving even if there was no lockdown at all. No economy can survive the entire population infected with a virus having that high fatality. For India, even 5% would be considered high if it happened all so quickly, but 20% is unaffordable.

FATALITY RATE IS NOT 5%, IT IS 18%.

Having said that, I feel the lockdown now has to go, in a phased manner and I hope that is what happens on 3rd May.

What a disastrous situation we find ourselves in
We cannot afford the entire population infected
and
we also cannot afford the lockdown dragged further

God save our countrymen.

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by JithinR

What are red-zone districts?
These districts have the highest incidence of cases. Before April 15, the ministry classified a district as red zone if it reported more than 15 cases. However, now a district with highest case load contributing to more than 80% cases of each state or a district with doubling rate less than 4 days would be classified as red zone district.

What are orange and green-zone districts?
A district that has not reported a single case in last 14 days is an orange zone district. A green zone district is one which has not reported any case over 28 days.

mm.. but what about those districts that neither contribute to more than 80% of cases of each state or a a doubling rate less than 4 days, and which are neither the one which has not had a case in last 14/28 days ?

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

FATALITY RATE IS NOT 5%, IT IS 18%.

Please don't put things selectively to sensationalize things. The source is

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total infected - 3,25 Million - These are Known Cases, I am sure there will be much more, as high as 80% being quoted by many, asymptomatic which are not being tested in most countries.

Total Deaths - 2,31 Lac

Total Serious - 54 K

In India, everyday over 26,000 people die i.e 1 Million must have died only in India in past 40 days. And we are seeing lot fewer deaths here, fewer accidents, murders or heart attack.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Please don't put things selectively to sensationalize things. The source is

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total infected - 3,25 Million - These are Known Cases, I am sure there will be much more, as high as 80% being quoted by many, asymptomatic which are not being tested in most countries.

Total Deaths - 2,31 Lac

Total Serious - 54 K

In India, everyday over 26,000 people die i.e 1 Million must have died only in India in past 40 days. And we are seeing lot fewer deaths here, fewer accidents, murders or heart attack.

I had this PM during my developer days. Nice guy, but always wanted to "give" the client what they want. The client was Japanese, and always particular about numbers. Once we were doing a performance testing on the application we built the result of which has to be sent to the client. As expected, the numbers were not looking good, but the PM wanted us to test again and again. Then somebody got really irritated, put the foot down and said, testing repeatedly is not going to improve the numbers. The came out of his cube, looked at the excel sheet and said, lets divide everything by 10.

Here we have a not so nice number - 18% - supported by facts and figures. Undoubtedly we don't like a not-so-nice number, so what would we do? Let's take an imaginary number - say 80%, and factor in. So lets divide the original number by 5 and, voila, we get the number we want. Everything looks nice now.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

Let's take an imaginary number - say 80%, and factor in. So lets divide the original number by 5 and, voila, we get the number we want.

Seriously, 18% of the people are dying!!

Ok, you want to say that every single case or a large % is tested and there are not many cases left?

If this 18% is a reason for justifying the lockdown. Good luck for saving millions of people. Probably that’s the narrative some guys want to hear.

Next will be what, due to the lockdown, India could bring Death rate lower from 18% to whatever they want to project.

[Behemoth]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

Just to clarify
Attachment 2000434

Lockdown is to avoid that eventuality I believe, as I do not think the government has any solution for it.

FATALITY RATE IS NOT 5%, IT IS 18%.

God save our countrymen.

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Please don't put things selectively to sensationalize things. The source is

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I would agree with Vinit here and this was raised some time back by me and clarified by two doctors - Vivek95 and Rationalist in the same discussion. The fatality rate is calculated once the patients have been discharged or deceased and is the actual measure of the fatality of a disease. But this data is available only after a conclusion is reached. Now we have a high enough sample size of 1.25 million patients and on the basis of that the current fatality rate is 18% and this mind you is so far mostly from developed countries.
The current infected cases are still under treatment and even though a small fraction may be serious at the current point of time, many more may eventually become critical and only once they are discharged will the result be known. Hence it is prudent to know that fatality rate is a more true indicator of the disease than the current condition of infected patients as that will vary.
Now comes the second aspect of whether the countries are able to test and capture all the infected cases or not. That would vary country by country and some developed countries might be able to track upto 80% of patients but in developing countries that number may just be 20% as the balance cases are asymptomatic or not serious to warrant hospitalization. In this India may just be witnessing the tip of the iceberg currently and as the diseases progresses the death number will indicate the actual number of infected cases.
The current spread rate is inspite of lockdowns and if the lockdowns were not there the daily growth factor could be very high.
This disease has the potential to infect the whole global population in 3 months if there were no lockdowns. With lockdowns they are trying to slow it to some extent so that hopefully there is some treatment available in the next 3-4 months.
Also another key point is that this virus is mutating fast and I read that there are already some 30+ mutations already and currently infected patients have been found to carry multiple mutations in their blood at the same time. The death rate from these mutations is also different and hence many countries have very high death rates while some are not very high.