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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 30th April 2020, 05:49   #1291
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
...
Tell me how am I supposed to decide for the treatment when the Doctor is so afraid to even touch me...
That's the situation in many places, more pronounced in some smaller towns. My in-laws had few heart-in-mouth moments last week (my brother-in-law became a dad), when the local government hospital advised them of a delivery complication and referred them to a larger government hospital (30 kms away). Thankfully the other hospital took care of everything and both mother and baby are doing fine.

Why this happened ? Because almost all the private hospitals are closed, so the usual option of going to a private maternity hospital was not there (small town, so no chain hospitals). The private
hospitals are shut not by any government order but because many doctors are just too scared themselves of catching infections and have shut the shops !!
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Old 30th April 2020, 07:06   #1292
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Luckily situation is slightly better in Kerala. One of my relative was hospitalised (non COVID19). He had to be put in ICU and on Ventilator support as well.

It was challenging to manage with lockdown in place. The hospital was in Thrissur, around 40Kms from my village. He was however discharged last week, is back home now and recovering well. Coronavirus situation did not affect his treatment and although it was inconvenient, it was possible for immediate family members to travel to and fro the hospital for attending to him.
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Old 30th April 2020, 08:03   #1293
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by landcruiser123 View Post
I'm sorry to say, but I find it hard to believe that you made this statement. While I'm no doctor, public health professional or immunologist, I feel this this the right move. Reason: Elders. The statistics show that young & middle age people (who have no preexisting conditions) aren't affected much, but the old people are at high risk. Many people above the age of 60 can have severe infections and die. And in a country like India where elders still live with families, people are high risk.
Dear Landcruiser, Your point is 101% valid and I fully concur. I am not expressing whether I am pro- or anti- the lockdown. I really do not know enough. On the balance, personally, I would veer towards well planned lockdown. I am only stating that some months from now as the damage created by the lockdown boils up to the surface, and we see that fatalities were after all not so much {because of the lockdown}, this debate will acquire a strong political boxing match flavour. Sorry if my communication was unclear.

The point on old people I relate to completely. I have two very old people in my home {PS: I don't count my self as old :-)}. Stay safe.
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Old 30th April 2020, 08:06   #1294
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
This is just my personal assessment, might seem controversial to some, but allow me to state it.

6 months from now or maybe as early as 4 months from now as a nation we will be debating as to whether a national lockdown of 6 weeks was the right remedy for a super contagious but {at least in India} super mild illness whose fatality total would not even make it to the top ten fatal communicable diseases in India. It is my view, and take it as just the view of one man, that the so called experts over stated its fatality by a factor of 100X or something in that range forcing the Govt's hand. In this and the other Coronavirus thread I wrote in February & March that we are going into over reaction without understanding the context of number of ill people/dead people in a 1.35 billion population.

By September we will be vigorously debating the long term damage to lives, livelihood and the economy by this lockdown. Let's revisit this point on 31st October 2020.
Decisions made when fighting an unknown enemy can be on assumptions and not based on concrete definitions, and it can swing either way. I feel that is what is happening with many countries, including India. I think we will see loads of confusions and trial and errors even with the lockdown relaxing exercise. For example, in Kerala, the green, orange, red districts are getting changed almost on a daily basis now.

Leaving aside the debate that the lockdown is good or bad for a moment. COVID-19 probably is a not a blockbuster to get into the top-ten fatal disease, but this super mild illness have already claimed lives of 100K+ lives globally. TB may kill in millions, but that doesnít diminish the seriousness of this pandemic.
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Old 30th April 2020, 08:28   #1295
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

While we are busy debating the lockdown and the numbers, I am really interested in knowing what steps have been taken during this time to make us better prepared to tackle the SARS-COV2 and as collateral gains in other areas. I vaguely see news items about coaches being converted to isolation wards, some news of a few new hospitals in planning, vaccines in development, etc., but I really don't see much data on this vital preparedness status like the data on SARS-COV2 infections, hospitalizations and death rates. Why isn't the government publishing this data on a daily basis, given that the primary reason for social distancing and isolation is to create better facilities for treatment? Or is it that we've forgotten this important goal?
For the rest of us who have not contracted the disease, the most important information is knowing that, if and when we get it, we will be given adequate medical treatment.
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Old 30th April 2020, 09:55   #1296
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by landcruiser123 View Post
I feel this this the right move.
Community transmissions happen faster in densely populated areas.
Was the lockdown necessary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vb-san View Post
Decisions made when fighting an unknown enemy can be on assumptions and not based on concrete definitions, and it can swing either way.

No one is complaining about the lockdown. The problem is the way they acted. If someone has forgotten, there were around 630 Cases on Day 1 of the lockdown. Now, we all can say there could be 10 Million cases by now had they acted a week later, but it will be all hypothetical.

My Question is what would have been better - letting people go back to their places when the count was little or now when it's so high? Tell me, how difficult is this whole situation to brainstorm in meetings? I am sure no one would have confirmed Zero cases after 45 Days of lockdown, so why did they not considered a more planned Lockdown?

Let's say we have to decide about the lockdown

Day1 - 600, Expected Day 60 - Projections that I don't know

Day 40 - allow the migrants to leave.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

Actual Day 60 - will know in few days.

Or

We stagger the lockdown, limit most things immediately but allow only essential travels to home, run some free trains/ buses or whatever

Day7 - 5000 - Assumption (actual were 1250)

Expected Day 60 - Ask these figures from the same epidemiologist or statisticians.

What will you pick, spread of disease when the count is less or when it's increasing?

And this is even without factoring, the hardships outstation people/ labourer/ students and even the Government faced while dealing with the situation.

The risks of transmissions are so high but the Government cannot keep this holding any further, political or ground situation or both. Take this example. From a handful of around 50 people who returned from Naded, 34 are positive. And there are thousands more almost reaching Punjab. I am sure, most of these guys were free from the Virus a month back. But now? And they travelled 1750 Km by Road, not even a train.

And we have not yet seen what happens when the millions of people, workers return back to their homes. Doing things hurriedly is not a correct way always, politicians know this far better than us.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/23...b-2598223.html

I am not very good in expressing but hope you get the alternate point of view.

Last edited by Turbanator : 30th April 2020 at 10:00.
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Old 30th April 2020, 10:43   #1297
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

As a doctor I supported lockdown 1.0 and still support lockdown 1.0 but lockdown 2.0 IMO hasn't given the result I atleast hoped for.
Though statistically the figures look favorable but the ground reality is different.

What are things making Lockdown 2.0 a non starter for me atleast:

1. It was hoped that Lockdown would help to ramp up test but the numbers tell a different story. A capital city like Delhi has done only done only 35k odd tests shows lack of intent of government.

2. Paycuts: While Government expects private sector to pay full salary while it has gone ahead with Paycuts including for doctors

3. Lack of financial support for Industry, poor and middle class: Thre government expects us to take care of poor without giving tangible relief to salaried class and Industry. While it busy diverting previous resources into its grandiose plane of central vista and buying aircraft for VIP.

4. Lack of planning and petty politics: instead of learning from a state like Kerala which has done remarkable job, it has been literally being punished while carrots have been given to states like Gujarat, UP

5. The government has no concrete plan for economy only talks and talks.

I have highlighted only few issues considering sensitivity of the issue.

P.S: Mods if you feel this post is inappropriate please delete it.

Last edited by FrozeninTime : 30th April 2020 at 10:45. Reason: Adding a note to mods
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Old 30th April 2020, 11:33   #1298
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Thus spake Mr.N.R.Narayana Murthy :

"When you look at 9 million people dying naturally, and when you compare it with the death of 1,000 people in past two months, obviously it is not as much as a panic we think it is......."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/75459491.cms

Completely agree with his view point. As of today, the only thing becoming certain, is the total cluelessness of the government decision makers, and total lack of a scientific relaxation plan.

Last edited by lapis_lazuli : 30th April 2020 at 11:56.
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Old 30th April 2020, 11:33   #1299
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Request to Mods:
Can we add another poll - "Do You support second lockdown?" The current poll is for the first lock down and does not reflect to the true picture.
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Old 30th April 2020, 11:38   #1300
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrozeninTime View Post
A capital city like Delhi has done only done only 35k odd tests shows lack of intent of government.
Current Status

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-ewyckuhumaezmn0.jpeg
  • Close to 50k tests
  • Almost 4k tests per day
  • Tests per million is 4x more than national average and also it's more than states like Kerala, MH , TN etc

I agree there is scope to do better. I would say all the states and union government are trying their best in the fight against Covid-19.

Last edited by Dr.Naren : 30th April 2020 at 11:42.
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Old 30th April 2020, 12:49   #1301
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
This "look at America" and "look at Italy" statements have been at play from the beginning. No one argues that a lockdown has reduced the number of deaths. But, that is just temporary. Eventually, a virus with this transmission rate and stamina will get around to infecting everyone. It will just take longer. That's all.
Here is the viewpoint:
Name:  95267796_3652049048202732_1693666850769993728_n.jpg
Views: 653
Size:  23.4 KB

When Will COVID-19 End - Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/)

Graphs in the link are based on the assumption that present conditions prevail and people continue their lives as it now. For India, with lockdown the end date is May 26th (97%). Without lockdown or with lockdown relaxed, the date is unknown.

Last edited by msdivy : 30th April 2020 at 12:57. Reason: Reduced image size.
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Old 30th April 2020, 13:06   #1302
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Originally Posted by lapis_lazuli View Post
Thus spake Mr.N.R.Narayana Murthy :

"When you look at 9 million people dying naturally, and when you compare it with the death of 1,000 people in past two months, obviously it is not as much as a panic we think it is......."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/75459491.cms.
Finally. FINALLY. Someone, other than just Rahul Bajaj, is speaking up against this absolutely idiotic lockdown that has cost us incalculable damage to solve a problem that is not even a real problem compared to the million other issues that we face in this country.

And people on this thread blindly supporting a full societal shutdown while waving away the massive consequences and refusing to be bothered about the costs that we are inflicting on our weakest!! Just unbelievable!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by vb-san View Post
Decisions made when fighting an unknown enemy can be on assumptions and not based on concrete definitions, and it can swing either way. I feel that is what is happening with many countries, including India. I think we will see loads of confusions and trial and errors even with the lockdown relaxing exercise. For example, in Kerala, the green, orange, red districts are getting changed almost on a daily basis now.
Sir.... I will agree with you that decisions are made in a flux. But when you talk about the scale of this decision and the scale of its impact, then the administration should have thought about the suitability of this measure in a country like India where we have such steep income disparities. For the vast majority of our countrymen, catching a terrible (even deadly) flu is the least of their problems. You simply cannot take a solution that can be elegantly applied in places where most individual incomes fall with 1 or 2 standard deviations of their median, and then apply that solution into our completely heterogeneous income landscape where crores of people live on less than USD 5 per day. Thatís what we are saying here.

I agree that in a fast moving scenario, coming up with a well nuanced strategy would be tough. So for starters, they could have applied the lockdown and then immediately gotten to work in changing the structure of the lockdown to suit our society. Nothing stopped them from doing so. Instead, they just applied the lockdown and looked for the rate of positives to go down; which by any measure of common sense was simply not going to happen for a highly contagious disease like Covid in our densely packed cities.

More importantly, there was not even an ounce of concern demonstrated by the authorities about the economic impact. I mean, sure the RBI released new lending measures and the government put out some statements regarding some measures (which were viewed as weak by the market). But if you look at the overall tone of communication from the government, there was only shrillness of worry, if not panic, about the virus; and almost no sense of real concern about the economic fall out and the general damage to society.

And what about the general sentiment from the middle class who are supposed to be the educated pillars of society? Not an ounce of concern for the economy, or for the poor among us, or for the massive structural damage to our society. We simply accepted large scale damage without the slightest concern.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vb-san View Post
Leaving aside the debate that the lockdown is good or bad for a moment. COVID-19 probably is a not a blockbuster to get into the top-ten fatal disease, but this super mild illness have already claimed lives of 100K+ lives globally. TB may kill in millions, but that doesnít diminish the seriousness of this pandemic.
There is no good way to say this. But the world has 7.6 billion people at last count of 2018. That is roughly 760 crores. Out of this, roughly 3.2 million or 32 lac people have the virus as of last testing and 2.5 lac people have died. Even if this virus goes on to kill 7 crore people (which it is highly unlikely even without a lockdown), that would still be less than 1% of world population.

So, what we are saying with these lockdown measures is that inflicting large scale economic damage on all 760 crore people (100%) in the world and causing countless consequential deaths is worth it to protect 7 or 8 or even 9 crore people (1% to 1.2%) from the virus. To me that math sounds absolutely unacceptable.

Last edited by Gannu_1 : 30th April 2020 at 14:27. Reason: Back to back posts merged.
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Old 30th April 2020, 14:13   #1303
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

As someone who is currently actively involved in helping the frontline staff, let me say just one thing, If you are looking only at infected numbers and believing it, you are extremely naive. Read today's paper of how BMC is only testing people with 3 symptoms and not doing any more contact testing, etc. Open up the lockdown prematurely and there will be hell to pay.
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Old 30th April 2020, 14:19   #1304
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Tejas@perioimpl View Post
As someone who is currently actively involved in helping the frontline staff, let me say just one thing, If you are looking only at infected numbers and believing it, you are extremely naive. Read today's paper of how BMC is only testing people with 3 symptoms and not doing any more contact testing, etc. Open up the lockdown prematurely and there will be hell to pay.
If we donít open the lockdown there will be even more hell to pay. Soon, you will have to work for free on the frontlines. There will be no money for salaries for policemen and doctors and others who are working out there.
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Old 30th April 2020, 14:26   #1305
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Finally. FINALLY. Someone, other than just Rahul Bajaj, is speaking up against this absolutely idiotic lockdown that has cost us incalculable damage to solve a problem that is not even a real problem compared to the million other issues that we face in this country.

And people on this thread blindly supporting a full societal shutdown while waving away the massive consequences and refusing to be bothered about the costs that we are inflicting on our weakest!! Just unbelievable!!
Completely agree and it is high time that Corporate India spoke up. With so many strategists, disaster recovery specialists why have they not opened up yet. There is no point toeing the standard line just to be on the side of numbers. One has to open up and talk about the elephant in the room. Today this elephant is not us - it is the MSME folks and the daily wage workers. Just to give a perspective, my missus has now asked her team to go on a sabbatical for the foreseeable future. This has not only impacted her, but the ancillary units as well. Now imagine a 1000 fold increase in similar activities. The local kiranawallah who runs his shop with 3 people is now running it alone. He also contracted with a runner for delivery and that too is now stopped. Take a walk around your neighborhood and see the number of shops closed. Spend a few minutes observing each shop and what they do and you will realize how this lockdown has affected them. I am positive that some of them will not open at all.

The industry leaders will now have to come out and talk about stopping a lockdown 3.0 and will have to put pressure on the government. Where are the rest of the industrialists ? One Narayanamurthy or One Bajaj is not sufficient. Each and every sector has to step up and stop this madness. Unless that happens, the Govt will be running around with eyes closed and searching for the elixir.
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