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Old 26th April 2020, 18:54   #1186
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by DCEite View Post
The SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model developed by Singapore university of technology and design throws some interesting insights. Here are some predictions for :
Going purely by the above data model, it seems that the worst for India is already over and we can only go downhill as far as the number of cases per day is concerned, provided same conditions as of today are met in future.
Comments?
Going by this chart it looks like Corona virus has not yet seen this model! Statistics and all are good to a point, my advice would be not to take it serious. We are dealing with a virus, whose incubation period is our guess work, how many days it remains inside human body is still largely guess work, we are still not sure how far it can spread, we are not sure about it’s longevity on different surfaces.

The problem with these models is that they will make you confident of success, which is hardly the case. As @vivek95 has mentioned, 70-80% patients harbouring the virus is asymptomatic. Imagine you keep the country locked down for another month. The cases come down to few hundreds as you say, you open up the country, you still have a billion people not immune to this virus. What makes one think that Corona will stop infecting us after lock down? The virus will most probably come back, then what?

We can’t play cat and mouse, we have to decide that let’s face the fact we can’t eradicate the virus without getting immunity to majority, either by getting infected or by vaccines. Vaccine is at least 6 months away, even if it materialises, to produce 5-6 billion vaccines is not going to be easy by any means. Even if you vaccinate 1 crore people a day, it will take 4-6 months to even finish it. All this with the present kind of lock down in place. Are we having such luxury to enforce suffering for 6 months?

Last edited by The Rationalist : 26th April 2020 at 18:58.
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Old 26th April 2020, 19:05   #1187
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
One curious question. Why is everything a normal bell curve?
Here you go:

Quote:

Theory and Methodology
The evolution of COVID-19 is not completely random. Like other pandemics, it follows a life cycle pattern from the outbreak to the acceleration phase, inflection point, deacceleration phase and eventual stop or ending. Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem.
However, the pandemic life cycles vary by countries, and different countries might be in different phases of the life cycles at a specific point in time. For instance, on April 21, in Singapore, Prime Minister Hsien-Loong Lee announced the extension of circuit breaker to June 1 in response to the spikes of COVID-19 cases, on the same day when Prime Minister
Giuseppe Conte announced Italy’s plan to reopen from May 4. Ideally such decisions and planning can be rationalized by well knowing where our own country (together with the world as a whole) is in its own pandemic life cycle, when the turning point is coming if it has yet come, and most importantly when the pandemic will end. The basis for such actionable estimation is the pandemic’s life cycle.
The pandemic life cycle pattern is expected to appear as a S-shape curve when one plots the accumulative count of infection cases over time or equivalently as a “bell-shape” curve of the daily case counts over time (see examples in Figure 2). Such patterns as well as the
underlying dynamics have been well studied in various domains including population growth, diffusion of new technologies and infectious diseases, and have theoretically established mathematical models, including the logistic model that describes a general life cycle phenomenon (such as population growth) and the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that describes the spread of infectious diseases. The context-specific and
explainable SIR model is used in our predictions.

Source: https://people.sutd.edu.sg/jianxi_lu...er20200426.pdf
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Old 26th April 2020, 19:19   #1188
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Porsche owner gets reprimanded for not wearing a mask.

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Old 26th April 2020, 19:33   #1189
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
......One of my acquaintance in Delhi told a upsetting thing, he was approached reluctantly by a 20 year old young man when he had gone to buy some groceries, he asked him whether he will buy him a ₹10 biscuit. He then realised few more were there who were all in dire needs, he bought few stuff for 6 more persons. He gave ₹20 to a woman who just asked a packet of bread, that shop had run out of bread! Delhi as far I know is a metroplis, I’m terrified to think about the hinterland..
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Hypothetical again - what if everyone got food only if they worked, no exceptions, with zero ability to save up effort/money for food?

It is only pain that makes animals learn. And there is no doubt we are all animals, however much we may pretend otherwise.
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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Correct, no one dies with hunger these days. Wonder in that case, why does Companies/ Business owners need to pay Salaries?

Shouldn't it be simple - LockDown = No Pay, no one will die without salaries!

Will you be ok, not to take salary or will have some other reasons exclusive to yourself not applicable to those poor guys?
If you speak up for the daily wagers who are getting clobbered in this lockdown, you are apparently a left wing person.

To be clear, most of us who are bringing up the topic of the daily wagers are actually advocating the re-opening of a CAPITALISTIC FREE MARKET economy so that these people can get back to work and go about their life.

By contrast, those advocating a lockdown are essentially advocating mass incarceration of a free people in the name of the common good.

So, who is left wing and who is right wing here?

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...Read the above news. Contrary to the headlines, I would be honestly concerned if 70-80% were infact having symptoms and were ending up being critical. It's actually good so many people are experiencing it as yet another flu. Let's begin an experiment, face this virus head on as we now have enough evidence that 70-80% are not showing any symptoms. Scale up the testing rigorously and let the young individuals move freely by practicing social distancing measures and wearing masks. We can't wait to see that day when there is a spike in death of non-covid patients than Covid-19 deaths.
Thanks for putting it in perspective. I could not agree more. The fact that 80% of patients are asymptomatic is actually the best news to come out in a while. that means that 80% of those infected will breeze through the infection and can go about their lives.

But, try and say that to the fear mongers and you will be branded as being unsupportive of the administration.

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Originally Posted by Warwithwheels View Post
Porsche owner gets reprimanded for not wearing a mask.
Thanks for posting this. I was going to myself. I do not recommend that anyone break the rules of the lockdown. But, the other side of what happened here is also not right.

The boys father has launched a case that charges that civilians are now enforcing the law. If this situation goes on, we are all at the mercy of vigilantes who will stop at nothing.

Last edited by mohansrides : 26th April 2020 at 19:41.
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Old 26th April 2020, 20:18   #1190
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

We have completely lost perspective in tackling this matter. What no one seems to remember is that it is a type of flu. Yes, it is more dangerous than the flu and might be more contagious to some extent but it is a virus similar to the flu and common cold viruses. We have to treat it with more fear and caution as it might be more dangerous but the comparison to the flu virus provides much needed perspective. We have all seen people with the flu in our offices, extended families and public spaces. If we wanted to stay safe, we kept a little away from them, didn't hug them and perhaps didn't share food or drink with them. However, we didn't start worrying about whether we needed to stay 3 feet away or if 6 feet were enough or should it be 10 feet? We didn't start worrying about how long the virus stays on surfaces and become paranoid that even days later we could get infected from receiving a parcel or opening a door. We never thought we should seal an area of 3 kms around every case of flu as a containment zone. We didn't start worrying how many hours the breath of a patient would stay floating around in the air. We obviously never shut down an entire city or country. We didn't go around spraying disinfectant on roads to combat the flu. All this is not stated to belittle the danger of the coronavirus but to provide some perspective.

All this hysteria has led to lockdowns and panic. All we need to do is keep some distance, wear a mask when close to others, wash our hands before touching our faces and understand that life has to go on. There is no logic in allowing a shop to sell groceries while shutting another one selling a TV or clothing. The risk of spread is the same whether one is engaged in a so called essential service or not. It is obviously wise to close down crowded areas and shut down movie theaters but there was and is no need to shut down a hardware store or to prevent a person from driving or taking a walk.

In addition, we have to accept that we would get a few hundred thousand to a few million cases in India. Look at China. Official figures of 82k but many claim that the actual figure is far higher. If we assume the real fugure is 5x or say 400,000 then how can we expect that China with much more control on the population, better resources and discipline would get to 400,000 while in India we would manage to stay below that figure. Let us also look at Italy. They have crossed 200k with a population that is about 20 times smaller despite a lockdown. Same with the US. They are almost at a million cases and might end up with several million before this is over. These are countries with much more resources, much lesser population density, far better hygiene and overall better medical facilities. Considering these factors, it would be naive to expect lesser cases in India unless some other factor like temperature plays a significant role. So there is no need to panic when the figure reaches 30k or 1 lakh as we should be prepared for it. All we can do is improve our medical facilities, procure equipment and practice reasonable social distancing. I am astounded that people have willingly given up their liberty without protest or even discussion.

Last edited by Lobogris : 26th April 2020 at 20:30.
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Old 26th April 2020, 21:22   #1191
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

^^ on that note, perspective. I chanced upon this page, ranking major diseases. Filter is applied for viral infections. The site also has data for other microbial diseases.

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-20200426_165113.jpg

The picture might look a bit "cramped" as I captured it on a smaller screen, but try to hit the url on a bigger screen. Should appear clearer.

Source
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Old 26th April 2020, 21:34   #1192
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Lobogris View Post
There is no logic in allowing a shop to sell groceries while shutting another one selling a TV or clothing. The risk of spread is the same whether one is engaged in a so called essential service or not..
Very true! A head load worker in Kerala has contacted the virus after handling vegetables from a truck coming from a different state it seems. Now how will anyone track down from where did the virus land on the vegetable sack? Or will you stop movement of groceries? You canít disinfect grocery sacks by usual methods.

Similarly every stuff that is being sold can harbour the virus. If you think like that you can become paranoid and will have to put everything that you buys into some disinfectant first (provided you use gloves to handle it from right from shop/courier boy and discard gloves safely). We will have to disinfect even the currency and credit/debit cards as we donít know who all have touched it.
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Old 26th April 2020, 21:44   #1193
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
A head load worker in Kerala has contacted the virus after handling vegetables from a truck coming from a different state it seems.
Every state has interpreted as they deem appropriate. In Chandigarh, you can only go by foot to the nearest shopping complex where only daily need shops are open. Not Even bicycle and this is only for 4 Hours. Cars/ Bikes are impounded daily and proudly displayed. Can someone give one logic on how walking is safe and Cars unsafe??
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Old 26th April 2020, 21:51   #1194
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Civil unrest begins in some small countries.



If politicians know better, they will begin the opening process NOW. The state doesn’t stand a chance against a few thousand hangry, yes that’s the word, people on the street going absolutely ballistic.
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Old 26th April 2020, 21:55   #1195
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Every state has interpreted as they deem appropriate. In Chandigarh, you can only go by foot to the nearest shopping complex where only daily need shops are open. Not Even bicycle and this is only for 4 Hours. Cars/ Bikes are impounded daily and proudly displayed. Can someone give one logic on how walking is safe and Cars unsafe??
The only logical explanation would be cars would mean people could/would travel longer distances and maybe some/lot may go for joyrides. You dont want police to stop everyone and ask them the purpose and all. it would cause huge jams and would be huge waste of time for everyone.

So the compromise solution is you just walk to nearby shops, get your essentials and get back. Which is sort of OK. This sort of consistency should be there.

Whether I agree with this arrangement (of closing down everything and all these draconian measures) is another matter. I do not support the lockdown.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:07   #1196
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quick question. What happens once the state runs out of money to pay the police their monthly wages? Are they still obliged to keep law and order in place?
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:17   #1197
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Lobogris View Post
We have completely lost perspective in tackling this matter. .....
Thank you @Lobogris. At the risk of getting mauled by some fellow members I support all that you have expressed. Given its novelty, no cure and the global panic no Govt could afford not to do something. With 20-20 hindsight I'd say we ended up doing too much of one {lockdown} and not enough of another {testing} but on the whole satisfactorily albeit with massive side effects for the poor and the the business owners. Given the super contagiousness of this disease it is almost impossible that at least a few if not several million Indians have contracted it and for most, maybe as high as 99%, it simply sailed in and out with barely a protest. Now that the Govt has taken action and seen to have taken action it is time to, as you say, get back to business, accept that over another year a few lakhs will need medical care and get on with it.

We may want to do our best but we can't save every person in India who will die of TB, or every person who will die of Malaria. Just for illustration 1100 Indians die each day because of TB - you read it right each day. Compare that with our Covid figures. Multiply the Covid deaths in India by 10X and see for yourselves if the panic is warranted. And the same way much as we may want to we cannot save every person who sadly will die of Covid-19. I stated this 4 to 5 weeks ago on these very threads, more than once, and received a rather prickly reception!! Most citizens, not from the medical sciences, do not quite understand the magnitude of people who, in a giant country like India, die each day of different illnesses.

Last edited by V.Narayan : 26th April 2020 at 22:21.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:21   #1198
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Red Liner View Post
Quick question. What happens once the state runs out of money to pay the police their monthly wages? Are they still obliged to keep law and order in place?
I seriously don't want to post anything but this question made me to write here.

Woah! That sounds scary even when I only had the image in my mind. I don't know exactly what will happen, but it may give way for chaos!

Things are as bad as it is now, and if lockdown is extended any more, with this kind of scenario, it would be a hell to walk in streets.

I always had this image of zombies whenever I hear pandemic(yeah I know I sound stupid), but with the current situation and growing un-rest I can now imagine who will be those zombies. It's us, the regular folks who are hungry, harassed and neglected had enough of it and start protesting. I now understand how it will pan out if this lock down is going to be extended any more.

As vivek95 pointed out, since most of the infected are asymptomatic, no point of having lock-down. Any of us who are reading/posting in T-BHP might have contracted the virus but we shrug if off because we had no symptoms. There is no point in having lock-down anymore. Let's face it and get it over with. Practice social distancing, better hygiene habits suggested and we should be good to go.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:23   #1199
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by joslicx View Post
The only logical explanation would be cars would mean people could/would travel longer distances and maybe some/lot may go for joyrides.
For a moment, let's agree that few people go on the road during relaxed hours, so what?

This is what Advisor to the Administrator has to say when someone asked him about the efforts of Police-

Quote---
It should be more than obvious that the curfew stringency should have been focused in places like Ram Darbar rather than on harassing walkers in the sectors.

Reply -

Manoj Parida,IAS
@manuparida1

My friend it is easier to enforce curfew in open spaces and parks,than in congested colonies Smiling face with smiling eyes..We will improve vigil

https://twitter.com/satyendra25/stat...57322362531840

These people need to understand and quickly that their performance won't be judged by impounding cars or taking morning walkers from the parks but curtailing the spread.

Unfortunately, they have only sticks or arms, which this Virus is not afraid of.


Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
we can't save every person in India who will die of TB, or every person who will die of Malaria. Just for illustration 1100 Indians die each day because of TB - you read it right each day. Compare that with our Covid figures. Multiply the Covid deaths in India by 10X and see for yourselves if the panic is warranted.
Sir, Problem is the audience, most guys that die of TB do not have a name. No one knows about them and neither is anyone bothered as this is not on media. Honestly, even I am surprised at this number as we don't read this anywhere.

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
Companies/Business owners make more money than the salaries no?
That's nothing to do with my Question. If people are Ok with job losses of others as they have not yet died from hunger, why should businesses pay as no one dies from hunger? And I am talking as an employee. What my employer does with his earnings or losses is not my concern.

If you can't sympathize with problems of others, at least don't make fun. No one is untouchable..

Last edited by Turbanator : 26th April 2020 at 22:40.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:27   #1200
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Correct, no one dies with hunger these days. Wonder in that case, why does Companies/ Business owners need to pay Salaries?

Shouldn't it be simple - LockDown = No Pay, no one will die without salaries!

Will you be ok, not to take salary or will have some other reasons exclusive to yourself not applicable to those poor guys?
Companies/Business owners make more money than the salaries no? If you value your employees, you should pay them, right? Most of the people, spend more money on rent rather than on food?

Doesnt have a good grasp on the morality of wealth and economics, so will refrain from that.

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Originally Posted by DCEite View Post
Thank You.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
Very true! A head load worker in Kerala has contacted the virus after handling vegetables from a truck coming from a different state it seems. Now how will anyone track down from where did the virus land on the vegetable sack? Or will you stop movement of groceries? You can’t disinfect grocery sacks by usual methods.

Similarly every stuff that is being sold can harbour the virus. If you think like that you can become paranoid and will have to put everything that you buys into some disinfectant first (provided you use gloves to handle it from right from shop/courier boy and discard gloves safely). We will have to disinfect even the currency and credit/debit cards as we don’t know who all have touched it.
The rumour is that he borrowed a Gutka packet from the cleaner of the truck. Gutka, as you probably know, is banned in Kerala!
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