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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:29   #1426
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Lobogris View Post
So donít worry if you go up to 12k or even 15k.
Thanks a lot for your valuable input. By the end if this month, the car would clock 3000km more over the prescribed interval. However, it would be the last thing I wish to be doing.

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Originally Posted by bharatbits View Post
Oil change is quite straight forward but a bit dirty job to do. I would prefer to tip a person who does it on a daily basis and get it done.
Thanks a lot for your valuable input. I somehow donít feel okay to handover my car for any operation to an unauthorised person. However, during this time, Iíll have to calm my mind and let it happen for the good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by antz.bin View Post
Shell Petrol pumps do the oil changes for free, under usual circumstances. You could try that option if you have one of those in the vicinity.
Thanks for driving it into my mind. I was aware of this facility but it was completely out of my mind reason being there is no Shell petrol pump around my town. Iíll lookout for similar options available in the town.

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Originally Posted by bharatbits View Post
I think he is concerned of warranty issues and possible denial of future warranty claims since it's a 20k run car.
Yes, initially I was concerned for the warranty. I quickly escalated it with Ford India. The team promised that warranty wonít be affected during this time. However, I deeply feel it unhealthy for the car.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:32   #1427
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
I am very busy and haven't really got time to go through this notification. Government might be trying it's best but as long as they keep harping on about the numbers ( positive cases ), there will be no end to this. All this theory of strict lockdown to buy time to ramp up the healthcare infrastructure seems only partially true. I am a Doctor working in the frontline handling the surge in Covid and non-Covid patients both and I know there is nothing much done to address the overall healthcare infrastructure. We have a net deficit of overall beds because of this overzealous approach to Covid-19. Also, don't keep high expectations. Most of these green zones will turn into red zones overnight, the paranoia is that high in Govt. regarding number of positive cases. However, the recent advisory regarding home isolation of asymptomatic positive patients is what I really appreciate A stroke patient within window period was denied by 4 hospitals while I write this. So, hope we take into account the collateral damage seriously. Again, I am praying hard for Sweden. That tiny country is hell bent and not budging. I like such daredevil attitude even if going ahead it doesn't give an expected outcome. Ofcourse, I mean to say we need to be humble and cautious as and when the situation demands, not overconfident all the times. If the virus is dynamic, so are we. We are not going to get scared by its cheap tricks of making people asymptomatically positive and create a havoc unnecessarily.
When all this is over, I would like you to please come to my house for a meal. I mean this 100%. So consider this to be my official invitation. Not so much because you are a Covid warrior; but because you belong to that set of doctors who have their eye on the big picture.

By the way, you absolutely nailed it with this post.

Just as you said, I fully expect green zones to go to red overnight. Thatís when the true test of the administrationís will will begin. And until the media and the government stops reporting a daily ticker tape of test positives and fatalities, we are royally rogered as a society.

Cheers
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:38   #1428
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
Most of these green zones will turn into red zones overnight, the paranoia is that high in Govt. regarding number of positive cases.
What are your views about the people being transported in Trains? Although no one can predict, but this may cause the single largest spike if recent examples of the pilgrims returning from Maharashtra to Punjab are any sign.


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Originally Posted by Sebring View Post
If they are not moved, they will take to the streets and violence could erupt leading to bigger headaches to the administration.
Well, they have been handling this for the past 40 days and another 2 weeks may not have made any difference. Compulsions are more political.

That's the exact reason what many people have been writing that they should have thought about such things. Will know in few days perhaps, how this goes.

Last edited by Turbanator : 2nd May 2020 at 12:06.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:39   #1429
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

If they are not moved, they will take to the streets and violence could erupt leading to bigger headaches to the administration.
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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
What are your views about the people being transported in Trains? Although no one can predict, but this may cause the single largest spike if recent examples of the pilgrims returning from Maharashtra to Punjab are any sign.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:49   #1430
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Viraj.515 View Post
vehicle is unavoidable. What can be done in such situation?
Shell petrol pumps in Bangalore offer an oil change service. Look for something similar in your town. Some of the petrol pumps will offer this add-on service. It improves their revenue at very little cost. A second option is if possible, procure the oil and filter and do it yourself. If neither of these is an option, wait until a service centre is open. The distances they give you are guides, not absolute numbers, so a little plus or minus isn't too bad. Also, your warranty will not be affected if you do it late, thanks to the nation-wide shutdown.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:55   #1431
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by doxinboy View Post
Before lock down, no one knew how India will fare, what if India would have got 1 million infections, would you have said the same? The reason you are giving this example is because there are relatively less infection in our country till now, and government can wager now.
Exactly, no one knew about the numbers and hence it would have been more prudent to delay the travel restrictions for some days so that the horrendous situation of the migrant workers been avoided. Now when the cases have risen, we have allowed trains plus the huge logistical nightmare of screening and isolation. The recent return of the pilgrims from Nanded is just a tip of the iceberg. All this while they were requesting deportation and now when it finally happened, most of them are COVID positive. Also, the less infection numbers are because of low testing and nothing else. The stigma and panic around COVID is much more than the virus itself.

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Originally Posted by Viraj.515 View Post
Our Ford Freestyle diesel is due for its 20k periodic maintenance. The car has clocked ~9500km from the last periodic maintenance. I usually replace the engine oil on the interval of ~7500 km but this time I couldn’t.
You can run your car for around 2500kms more than 20k that you have cloaked. That’s the leeway Ford usually gives but in these circumstances I am sure they will consider.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
All this theory of strict lockdown to buy time to ramp up the healthcare infrastructure seems only partially true. I am a Doctor working in the frontline handling the surge in Covid and non-Covid patients both and I know there is nothing much done to address the overall healthcare infrastructure. We have a net deficit of overall beds because of this overzealous approach to Covid-19. Also, don't keep high expectations. Most of these green zones will turn into red zones overnight, the paranoia is that high in Govt. regarding number of positive cases.
This overzealous approach is what is hampering the overall process.No one really knows about the actual situation and keeps going on extending the lockdown. We had ample time to ramp up the facilities from January itself, the health minister till March 15 was saying that COVID is not a thing to worry and few days later we were in a lockdown !

This collateral damage is much much more than the damage by COVID itself. Normal patients who need regular systematic treatment( one whom I personally knew and died because of no regular dialysis) are in dire straits. And each day, the horrific stories of migrant workers walking and dying makes one very sad.

Thanks for saying the last line, gives us strength.

Regards.

Last edited by ABHI_1512 : 2nd May 2020 at 12:00.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 12:04   #1432
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Viraj.515 View Post
Usage of vehicle is unavoidable. What can be done in such situation?
You can carry on with using your vehicle for 500 700 more kms. I usually replace the engine oil of my ecosport diesel at 10K interval. Just keeping checking the engine oil level regularly. Also send a mail to Ford Customer care that your periodic service is due & you want to get your car serviced. Let them reply what can be done.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 12:18   #1433
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Viraj.515 View Post
I quickly escalated it with Ford India. The team promised that warranty wonít be affected during this time. However, I deeply feel it unhealthy for the car.
Standalone dealerships/ service stations should open on Monday, as I don't see these in negative lists and they will prioritise services for Covid warriors.

Companies, like BMW, have announced free oil service for Doctors

https://www.nfapost.com/bmw-group-in...doctors/12620/
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Old 2nd May 2020, 12:24   #1434
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
Again, I am praying hard for Sweden. That tiny country is hell bent and not budging. I like such daredevil attitude even if going ahead it doesn't give an expected outcome. Ofcourse, I mean to say we need to be humble and cautious as and when the situation demands, not overconfident all the times. If the virus is dynamic, so are we. We are not going to get scared by its cheap tricks of making people asymptomatically positive and create a havoc unnecessarily.
Hi doctor, after your posts, I was curious as to Sweden's method of dealing with this pandemic. So I googled a bit and was surprised to see that their CFR is worse than the USA and is the worst among the Nordic countries.

Is there any specific reason why you still want Sweden's model to work. Attaching a few observations below.

Here's a graph depicting the CFR between Sweden and USA. If CFR is a poor measure of mortality rate, then what is the use of this measure? I am unable to understand.

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-sweden.jpg

Also, here is an opinion from a reputed professor of Sweden regarding their current strategy. Some excerpts from the same.

Quote:
During the pandemic’s early stages, the government and most commentators proudly embraced this “Swedish model,” claiming that it was built on Swedes’ uniquely high levels of “trust” in institutions and in one another
Quote:
The government did not consciously design a Swedish model for confronting the pandemic based on trust in the population’s ingrained sense of civic responsibility. Rather, actions were shaped by bureaucrats and then defended after the fact as a testament to Swedish virtue.
Quote:
Tegnell approached the crisis with his own set of strong convictions about the virus, believing that it would not spread from China, and later, that it would be enough to trace individual cases coming from abroad.
Quote:
Tegnell indicated that eschewing draconian policies to stop the spread of the virus would enable Sweden gradually to achieve herd immunity.
Quote:
LŲfven likely wanted to demonstrate his trust in “science and facts,” by not – like US President Donald Trump – challenging his experts.
Quote:
By mid-March, and with wide community spread, LŲfven was forced to take a more active role. Since then, the government has been playing catch-up. From March 29, it prohibited public gatherings of more than 50 people, down from 500, and added sanctions for noncompliance. Then, from April 1, it barred visits to nursing homes, after it had become clear that the virus had hit around half of Stockholm’s facilities for the elderly.
Quote:
It is too soon for a full reckoning of the effects of the “Swedish model.” The COVID-19 death rate is nine times higher than in Finland, nearly five times higher than in Norway, and more than twice as high as in Denmark.

Last edited by nikhn : 2nd May 2020 at 12:43. Reason: Spelling error.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 12:34   #1435
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by nikhn View Post
Here's a graph depicting the CFR between Sweden and USA. If CFR is a poor measure of mortality rate, then why use it as a measure at all? I am unable to understand.

Attachment 2001087

Also, here is an opinion from a reputed professor of Sweden regarding their current strategy. Some excerpts from the same.
But they will also be ahead of the world in terms of immunity. And they would have a functioning economy to keep things from falling off the cliff.

No one denies that there will be lots of fatalities thru Covid in an open society. But the question is at what cost are those fatalities prevented? And what is to say that those fatalities are prevented at all if the virus is going to be around for a long time to keep coming back to infect society?

Living perpetually under a lockdown is not feasible. By now, I think everyone understands that.

Sweden is not the only country by the way. Turkey is enacting weekend lockdowns only. The US is largely under a suggestive quarantine with at least 40% of the working population out and about in one form or another. And China. All their major cities are functioning despite the virus being in their neighbourhood.

Last edited by mohansrides : 2nd May 2020 at 12:45.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 12:54   #1436
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
But they will also be ahead of the world in terms of immunity. And they would have a functioning economy to keep things from falling off the cliff.
Their central bank data says otherwise.

Quote:
Sweden is not the only country by the way. Turkey is enacting weekend lockdowns only.
And so does Turkey. Which makes me still wonder? How are you so confident to value lives over economy?
Quote:
And China. All their major cities are functioning despite the virus being in their neighbourhood.
I'm sure you trust China's data and the information they put out. Unfortunately with the way they have been handling things, it would be difficult for me to do so.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 12:55   #1437
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
But they will also be ahead of the world in terms of immunity. And they would have a functioning economy to keep things from falling off the cliff.

-snip-

Sweden is not the only country by the way. Turkey is enacting weekend lockdowns only. The US and Australia are largely under a suggestive quarantine with at least 40% of the working population out and about in one form or another. And China. All their major cities are functioning despite the virus being in their neighbourhood.
Just FYI, there have been success stories on the other side as well.

For example, New Zealand implemented a strict lockdown and has now effectively eliminated the virus completely. Here's an article for the same, with relevant bits quoted below -

Quote:
The country began mandatory quarantines for all visitors on March 15, one of the strictest policies in the world at the time, even though there were just six cases nationwide. Just 10 days later, it instituted a complete, countrywide lockdown, including a moratorium on domestic travel. The Level 4 restrictions meant grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals, and petrol stations were the only commerce allowed; vehicle travel was restricted; and social interaction was limited to within households.

The plan seems to have worked. The daily infection rate in the island nation of 4.9 million steadily dropped from a maximum of 146 in late March to just a few cases a day by mid-April. All told, New Zealand reported a high of 1,476 cases and 19 deaths. On April 26, the country experienced a watershed moment when no new COVID-19 cases and no community transmissions were reported for the first time in over six weeks, though seven new cases cropped up by April 30.
It's going to be a hell lot easier for them to trace new infections as well now. BTW they're opening up their economy significantly now, after having defeated the virus. Now they can stick to a quarantine visitors only regime, at least until they figure out a vaccine.

Also, I'm not advocating for a prolonged lockdown either. But there a vast number of considerations to be taken into account when we know precious little about this virus. We still don't know which strategy will work out, and it's better we remain cautious till then, rather than open it up completely and pray that none of our near and dear ones get affected.

Also, I have a genuine curiosity as to why you trust China's data so much. Would be grateful if you could share the same.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:01   #1438
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Originally Posted by nikhn View Post
Their central bank data says otherwise.



And so does Turkey. Which makes me still wonder? How are you so confident to value lives over economy?


I'm sure you trust China's data and the information they put out. Unfortunately with the way they have been handling things, it would be difficult for me to do so.
So what exactly are you suggesting? That we remain under lockdown forever? And what makes you think that I donít value lives? Actually I could turn that question over to you. Why donít you value lives that are lost, or are severely affected due to a lockdown? Because I can guarantee you that in absolute numbers, the numbers of those who are either already going through, or will go through, unimaginable suffering is far greater than the actual Covid cases. We just arenít counting that number anywhere. But we are diligently counting the Covid deaths.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:12   #1439
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I don’t understand the logic of comparing the response of Rich countries and that of India? Are we equal in all parameters, if not why compare Apple and Oranges? Does Team-bhp represent majority of Indian car buyers? We as a bunch will want safer cars, but look at what India buys. You can’t blame the majority buying tin cans, that’s what they can afford. If Governement is so bothered about safety of citizens, they should reduce duties on cars and make it affordable for masses. Instead we tax them heavily and force most to make a compromise when compared to Western countries.

There maybe countries which can be locked down for a year. Does that mean all the countries should be locked down for a year? Governement looks after the old in many Western countries, so will the government of India do that? That’s not practical, isn’t it?

Now about people dying, accept the fact lives of human beings are not equal anywhere. Western countries have airlifted their citizens during this lockdown from India, did we bring anyone of our own? Are they some kind of inferior Indians? We lose more than 3000 per day to smoking, around 600 per day to alcohol and its effects, why not outright ban that? We will save 1 million lives a year and more will live longer. The medical infrastructure will be relieved off a big burden. That’s not practical either, it won’t be banned in our lifetimes. So the government is accepting that 1 million Indians dying a year is not a priority, rather they will take that money and spend on ‘Welfare’.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:15   #1440
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by TRR View Post
Just FYI, there have been success stories on the other side as well.

For example, New Zealand implemented a strict lockdown and has now effectively eliminated the virus completely. Here's an article for the same, with relevant bits quoted below -



It's going to be a hell lot easier for them to trace new infections as well now. BTW they're opening up their economy significantly now, after having defeated the virus. Now they can stick to a quarantine visitors only regime, at least until they figure out a vaccine.

Also, I'm not advocating for a prolonged lockdown either. But there a vast number of considerations to be taken into account when we know precious little about this virus. We still don't know which strategy will work out, and it's better we remain cautious till then, rather than open it up completely and pray that none of our near and dear ones get affected.

Also, I have a genuine curiosity as to why you trust China's data so much. Would be grateful if you could share the same.
New Zealand? Are you serious?

The entire country is smaller than Maharashtra in terms of area. Also they have a more even spread of per capita income relatively speaking. Also their population is less than 5 million (49 lacs in 2019). We have 13000 lac people here.

So for India, we are talking here about locking down a country that is 10 times the size of NZ in area and I don’t even know how much larger by population numbers. More importantly, vast majority of people here are on subsistence incomes. How long are you going to wait exactly until you understand everything about the virus so that you can finally decide to let people earn a living?

Last edited by mohansrides : 2nd May 2020 at 13:21.
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