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Originally Posted by vinit.merchant ..For once, let us assume that the lockdown was actually lifted tomorrow in India, for all businesses, for example. Let us not discuss the impact on virus spread for a while. How many businesses will actually do some business, apart from the essentials that is already open?....
My point being majority businesses are going to suffer now, lockdown or no lockdown, because people all over the world are preferring to stay home.
Lockdown or no lockdown, the impact is bad for many sectors and the jobs dependent on them. |
This view has been advanced here before. But, the logic that I will impose on you what you would probably have chosen anyway is flawed on many levels. First, it is morally wrong to force a choice on this scale. Second, no one really knows if people would have stayed home for sure. I think given a choice, those who are fearful would have stayed home; and others who wish to take the risk for their livelihoods would have chosen differently.
I will agree with you about one thing. Lockdown or not, we are looking at a troubled economy. But, the point being made here is that we have pushed the economy into exponentially more troubled waters with the lockdown and with the fear that was created to enforce the lockdown.
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Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao ..Crippling paranoia, induced for short-term compliance, is going to unleash major long-term damage. |
Spot on. When the PM comes on TV and says "
Bahar jaana maut ko ghar bulane ke barabar hai..", what do you expect the people to interpret? Even at that time, I thought that the statement was far-fetched. But, at the time we were dismissing China's data as being disingenuous. So, I thought that maybe the true picture was more dangerous and that statement was warranted. In any case, I understood that the statement had to be made to get people to comply with a lockdown.
But, now seeing as to how the disease is playing out amidst the infected population here and around the world, I think that the assessment that this disease is certain-death is so far from the truth that it is not even worth mentioning.
For the record, we lose
roughly 1.5 lac people every year due to auto accidents. What's more, there is enough evidence about causal links between passive smoking and cancer. But, we certainly have not banned cigarettes despite smoking being a more willful display of disregard of others' health.
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Originally Posted by m8002? With opinions on the easing of lockdown split right in the middle,the government is now left with holding the proverbial "tigers' tail". |
Very nicely put. I agree with your assessment in general, but with one exception. This thread on our forum is not a good sample of general public sentiment. The general opinion out there is NOT split down the middle I think. Even people who originally thought that the lockdown was a good idea are now waking up to the reality of an economically crippled society. Go to this
link. Then click on the button for comments at the bottom. You don't have to read each comment. Just the first few words of each comment will give you a sense of public sentiment.
One anecdote for you. My aunt has been a Syndicate Bank employee for 30 straight years. She is well over 50 and has been on the front-lines of the bank's lending business in Mumbai for 3 decades. With her tenure, she could have become a senior officer if she had wished. But, she always felt that promotions came with deputation to another geographic location. Being a pukka Mumbaikar she has never wanted to be away from the City and away from her family.
Coming back to this topic, she has been going to the office on alternate days right from March 25th. When I called her this morning, I fully expected her to be worried about catching the infection. Also, I expected a tone from her that was along the lines of "
I am a Covid warrior who has been putting myself at risk for society...". Instead, in typical Mumbai style, she brushed off my thank yous and first asked me about my company and my job. Then, she categorically said that if ever there was a disproportionate response to a crisis, then this lockdown was it. She said that we are potentially looking at a welfare state financed by nothing but defense spending. Many banks are apparently sitting on a pile of money that they are looking to lend (as per RBI guidelines); only no one is coming to take loans in a lockdown and they do not expect the situation to change even post-lockdown until consumer demand has risen.
She said, "
Yeh piddu sa virus ke liye itna bhi darna nahin chahiye..."
For what it's worth, she also went on to say some very uncharitable things about the administration that I won't repeat here. Keep in mind that almost everyone in our family voted for this administration. She herself voted for this administration despite witnessing first hand how demonetisation played out for her bank's customers and account holders. During those times, she forgave the fallout as
a.) it was seen as a bold step towards attacking an entrenched problem.
b.) a lot of us were not hoarding cash. So, we were not directly affected.
But this time, things are very different.
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Originally Posted by 400notout ..The western countries are in damage control mode, whereas we have prevented a lot of damage as of now. .. |
I don't think that we have prevented any damage. We have just moved the damage from one column to another in the balance sheet. The collateral damage due to this lockdown is so far reaching that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of losses to life due to the lockdown.
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Originally Posted by 400notout ..A huge part of the economy is already dead. Hospitality - dead, Travel and tourism - dead, Malls - dead, Recreational areas - dead. Non essential retail - next in line.
This situation is here to stay .. |
Your statement made me think a lot. We actually talked about what you have said both in our office calls and at home. I can't speak for my colleagues. But in my family, after long deliberations and after looking at all the information that has come out so far, we have all decided that once the lockdown has been lifted, we will certainly adhere by all rules and guidelines set out by the government. But, within the framework of those rules, we will absolutely patronise every business there is around us. We will go to the mall. We will eat out. We will take a vacation once the planes are flying. In short, we will absolutely not let this virus stop us from living our lives. We actually think that it is darn near our patriotic duty to help local businesses get thru' this crisis.
By the way, before you think that this is coming from some misplaced sense of bravado, let me assure you that it is actually quite the opposite. We are more afraid of an economy with big holes in its fabric than we are about the virus. This whole "
jaan hai tho jahaan hai" line is utter nonsense.
Agar jahaan nahin hai tho jaan rehke bhi koyi faida nahin hai. This is what we believe.
I mean, if we remain afraid, we will never be able to send our kids to school, or be able to meet relatives and friends, or be able to do anything at all. We for one do not want to live in a dystopian society where our food is delivered by drones while we are cocooned away from other homo sapiens. That is not life at all.
Also, there really is no escaping this virus. With it's staying power, it will get around to infecting the people who it would have infected anyway, lockdown or not. So, might as well go out there and live our lives and help the economy get off the ground. We want to be able to generate employment for as many people as we possibly can. Short of being entrepreneurs, this is the best we can do at the moment.**
** On that note, we are super scared about the risks. But, if we get guidance and support about solving the sales side of things, at some point, we would be willing to be entrepreneurs to help create jobs. By God's grace, I hope that happens.